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Mail Bag Q&A Concerning Discipline And Prior Reports
Kenneth J. Gruneisen, Founder and Contributing Writer, www.CANSLIM.net
CANSLIM.net



 
Subscriber Questions:

April 19, 2009 

Ken,

I haven't jumped in this latest rally which followed through 6 weeks ago and wanna kick myself in the a**.  I've been missing out on some profits.  I laid my bets down on the previous 4-5 rallies over the past year and lost $.  Is it 'late in the inning' now and too risky for me to jump in?  Please advise. 

Also,  I see TNDM  bounced off it's 10 week moving average, buy point came in at $26.46.  Did not see it on your website.   Please advise if I am mistaken.  

Thanks,
John 

 
Ken's Response: 

April 20, 2009  

John, 

Fear of missing out must be something all investors struggle with from time to time. If you are an investor who is feeling like kicking yourself today, my guess would be that urge to kick has something to do with seeing huge bounces in investments outside of the investment spectrum of CANSLIM.net reports - reports designed to help you adhere to a fact-based investment system that we remain confident works as it has always!
 
You have indicated that the well-noted 6-week winning streak the market has produced makes you fear that you've waited until the risk is "too great" for you to get in now. I will remind you that the best way to manage risk is to always make disciplined entries and exits.  Now, as to what was "missed" and your reference to a buy point at $26.46 on TNDM. There is validity to the analysis from some who would suggest that if you did not have quick reflexes to buy an initial breakout, as a "second chance" to accumulate shares of a high-ranked leader, one can buy upon the stock's first pullback to its 10-week average and they can accumulate shares all the way up to as much as +5% above the stock's recent high.  In this case, that might be as high as $27.68, and we DID NOT put it that way in CANSLIM.net reports. For your knowledge, this approach can be used for all stocks and still arguably be considered disciplined "second chance" entries.  You indicated a personal past that too often has been out of sync with the market, so perhaps your focus is going to be better spent on grabbing more first chances.
 
TNDM was first featured in yellow on 3/02/09 at $18.89 in the mid-day report w/ $21.08 pivot point to $22.13 max buy price. It made 12 subsequent appearances in the mid-day report (including 3/23 when its color code was changed to green and noted as getting "extended" from a proper base, and 4/08 when it dipped intra-day under its "max buy" price). It is among a couple of current Featured Stocks that recently retested support near their original buy points or pivot points when consolidating after powerful breakouts. My view is that pullbacks of that type are really your best "second chance" entries, rather than second chances that have you potentially chasing a leading stock more than 5% above the pivot point from a sound base and proper breakout.
 
TNDM was analyzed after 3/02/09 in detail with annotated graphs 5 times in the Featured Stock Update section:
3/02/09 http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/pcbor/a/breakoutstodaypay030209.asp#fsu
3/10/09 http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/pcbor/a/breakoutstodaypay031009.asp#fsu
3/20/09 http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/pcbor/a/breakoutstodaypay032009.asp#fsu
3/31/09 http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/pcbor/a/breakoutstodaypay033109.asp#fsu
4/09/09 http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/pcbor/a/breakoutstodaypay040909.asp#fsu
 
In a robust Bull Market, many stocks performing as well as TNDM (or better over a similar time span) might not make as many appearances or receive as frequent updates with annotated graphs. In times when there are 30 or more stocks on the Featured Stocks page, you can expect that each issue does not get such redundant coverage as they do during times with such thin leadership! 
TNDM also appeared in 12 additional mid-day reports after 3/02/09 including:
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay030509.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay030609.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay031309.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay031809.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay032309.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay032509.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay032609.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay033009.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay033109.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay040209.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay040609.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay040809.asp#TNDM
 
http://premium.canslim.net/cnnews/middaycbor/middaybreakoutstodaypay041709.asp#TNDM
 
Keep in mind when you are studying recent breakouts, lighter volume pullbacks can offer good chances to accumulate shares while a stock consolidates above its old highs, whereas a breakdown on higher volume can be a bad sign - and deterioration into the prior base is always a worrisome sign of weakness. 

Best regards,

Kenneth J. Gruneisen
Founder & Contributing Writer for CANSLIM.net StockNews
www.canslim.net

About Kenneth J. Gruneisen, Founder and Contributing Writer, www.CANSLIM.net :
Kenneth J. Gruneisen has successfully completed the CAN SLIM® Certification Program.  Mr. Gruneisen became a Registered Representative in 1987 and his career includes experience offering personalized assistance to investors with more than a decade of experience as a Registered Principal managing a branch office.

The recommendations made by CAN SLIM® certified individuals are their own and may not be attributed to the CAN SLIM® Certification Program, William O'Neil & Co., Investor's Business Daily or their affiliates. The CAN SLIM® Certification indicates only that the individual has successfully completed the CAN SLIM® Certification Program. CAN SLIM®, William O'Neil & Co., Investor's Business Daily and any of their affiliates are in no way responsible for any loss or damage caused as a result of the services provided by these individuals.


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