|
CURRENT |
MARKET |
CONDITIONS |
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|
A overview of the
current market conditions - the important "M" in CANSLIM.
Perspective: Making
Heads or Tails of this Market
Last month’s lead article was titled, “When the Up
Market Stops Going Up”. I urge you to read it if you missed it or review it
again if you did read it. Based on the recent market activity, the observations
and analysis in that article apply as much
this month as they did last month. It has become obvious to chartists that the NASDAQ has weakened while
the S&P 500 has shown a little more resilience. Popularly televised market mavens are
covering the entire spectrum of possible market directions. Looking at the two
charts of the major indices as my indicators, I've come to my own conclusions. I suggest
that you
do the same.
To get a snapshot of the activity within the indexes, I use
both daily and weekly charts, volume indicators, advance/ decline line, the indexes
new high/low list, and Wilder’s RSI
(Relative Strength Indicator) indicator. This information will
generally point to trouble spots and - coupled with current economic data - will
oftentimes forewarn of a serious storm brewing, or they might indicate the market is
only catching its breath. An analysis of these indicators is simple and
straightforward.

Looking first at the NASDAQ, we are in a confluence zone
between 2,000 and 2,050. This zone is formed by four lines: the old
upward trend line (dotted
line) drawn along prior low closes (near the present 50-day moving average), the
next upward trend line (blue line) drawn along the intra-day low points, the pivot highs in December (black
line) which coincide with the recent pivot low, and the prior "lower
high" (see the line at point "A" on the chart).
A break below the
2,000 range could lead to a deeper drop back towards prior lows in the 1,900
area. Volume (not shown) has increased with the NASDAQ’s
retreat, a definite warning sign but it doesn’t suggest a conclusive end to the current
bull move. The sinking relative strength line (see point "B", bottom of chart) magnifies the NASDAQ’s weakness, having
established a series of lower highs and lower lows much like the price has. Normally this is an early
caution light to investors. As a side note, stocks making new highs versus new lows is
following the same reversal pattern. The RSI indicator started turning to the
negative in January and it has fallen for more than the past month. These indicators
suggest that NASDAQ could fall further. I am planning for that contingency, but
I’m not assuming anything.

The S&P 500 looks a bit more
stable, but it too is at an important intersection of trend lines and pivot low support areas, between 1,125 and
1,170
(see "A" on the chart). The RSI also indicates weakness but it has
held up at
previous lows at around 50. What is encouraging is that we are still seeing higher
highs and higher lows on the bellwether S&P 500 Index's chart. So, for now we are
only seeing a mild consolidation.
The S&P 500 could fall to 1,125 and still not violate the 50-day moving average or
the longer-term trend line (black dotted line). The advance-decline line is holding up, as is the
new high-low indicator (neither are shown here). If those things start to change then my
opinion may change to a more negative position.
There is positive news that should help to continue the
market’s gains beyond those achieved over the past 12 months. I am optimistic for the remainder of
the year because the market has continually held up at crucial support, and more money is flowing
into the market via mutual funds and late arriving investors. Also, interest rates have stayed
low and foreign central
banks are still buying our bonds. Current economic indicators suggest a strong economy.
The presidential election this
November, I believe, will also help lead to positive market results in 2004.
Many have written off
the housing market, but earnings and growth projections in this sector continue to improve.
Housing statistics serve as important barometer for many ancillary consumer
sectors. In the top 50 of this week’s IBD 100 stock list there were 5
homebuilders, 6 apparel/shoe companies, and 4 energy related stocks. This
suggests that consumption is still fueling the economy and money is changing hands.
This is good. Absent from the top 50 are Internet, chip, computer and software
companies. This parallels the sector charts, which show continued strength in
the consumer, leisure, insurance, banking and utilities sectors, while the high
tech, transports and senior growth stocks are deteriorating.
We are at an important technical crossroads for the near term,
but for the rest of the year I see a positive story. If things change or
continue to worsen then an alternative plan will have to be put into play to
preserve capital. Otherwise, I'd be getting ready to still be proactive
about buying.
Read
my article from the
February
'04
issue of CANSLIM.net News again, and be
prepared whether the market comes up heads or tails.-
Dee Hendon
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MARKETS |
LEADING |
GROUPS |
|
|
You stack the odds of making a winning
trade in your favor by choosing a leading company in a
leading industry group, so when buying stocks be sure
to choose one with
plenty of company, that is a stock trading among
a group of several
strong-performing peers! Familiarize
yourself with the list of the top performing industry groups
and leading stocks listed below. These symbols
and related
companies ARE NOT intended to be construed as a list
of timely and proper CANSLIM-based
choices.* These pace-setters in each of
the currently top-ranked groups listed may not
presently fit within the
guidelines we suggest adhering to. The point is
that it is always wise to choose leaders in the same
or a very similar business to that of the strongest
stocks in the market. Find companies that
resemble other strong stocks' leadership
characteristics.
*CANSLIM.net's
most timely buy candidates are
analyzed by our experts in great detail in the "Stocks to Watch in This New Market
"section.
| Rank |
Group
Name |
Leaders |
|
1 |
Telecom
- Wireless, Equipment, Services |
SWIR,
RIMM,
QCOM, NOK, VSAT, AUDC, CCBL, DITC, HRS, SEAC,
AMX, MBT, SKM, VIP,
STHLY |
|
2 |
Retail
- Apparel, Shoes, Etc. |
DECK,
RCKY, FOSL, GES, PSUN,
CBUK, JOSB, URBN, CACH, ARO, FL, TSA |
|
3 |
Energy
- Oil, Gas, Coal |
PETD,
UPL, KCS, CWEI, EPEX, NEV, FDG, HDWR |
|
4 |
Steel-Producers
& Specialty Alloys |
GGB,
PKX, SID, STLD, TS, TIE,
GTI, RTI, CRS, ATI |
|
5 |
Medical-Systems/Equipment |
VAR,
LSCP, OMCL, FSH, CLZR,
ABAX, PMTI |
|
6 |
Financial
- Banks, Mortgage Related |
CBH,
CAPX, HCBK, LEND, FMT, CFC, SAXN |
|
7 |
Transportation
- Tankers/Shipping |
TNP,
GLNG, FRO, TK, TRMD |
|
8 |
Electronics
- Scientific/Measuring |
MTSC,
FARO, CYBE, LCRY, TMO, IVIS, MSS, ADEX |
|
9 |
Computer
Software - Security |
SYMC,
NSCN, SFNT, SCUR, TMIC, SSNC, TSAI |
|
10 |
Metal Ores |
CLF,
PD, PCU, RIO, ACO |
Note:
Links above (in Leaders column) refer to write-ups on
previously featured stocks.
-
CANSLIM.net News
Staff
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INVESTING
FOR |
THE NEW |
MILLENNIUM |
|
|
Make
Sure Your Portfolio is Tuned Up for a Great Performance
by
Kenneth J. Gruneisen, Registered Investment Advisor, Source Capital Group,
Inc. Members NASD/SIPC
Let's
compare the major indices to a band or orchestra for a minute.
When each instrument is not properly tuned and playing in the right key,
the musical performance obviously suffers.
If you are not a musician, another comparison works if you understand a
little bit about automobile engines. It
tells you a lot about how strong an engine is running if you know how many of
its cylinders are firing correctly. Why
talk about cars or music? Well, in
terms of investing, it is fair to say that the major indices are our engine's
cylinders, or our musical instruments, in each of these analogies that
essentially involve proper tuning.
So,
how well tuned the market is for our investing success can be determined by
studying the charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index,
Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000. It
is best when these averages are providing widespread confirmation by showing
unanimous strength on their price and volume graphs but there are sometimes
occasions (like now) when they give us mixed signals.
As long as there remains a divergence between the blue chips and the
small caps, investors are being warned by the market that the engine or band is
out of tune.
Again
using the band comparison, think about how true it is that with a bigger group
the scheduling gets trickier due to your having to coordinate what fits
comfortably into more band members' timetables.
Meanwhile, a great duo or trio can sometimes be just as exciting and
rewarding, maybe even more stimulating than hearing a large orchestra as long as
the small group includes exceptional performers.
Translate that to stocks and there are some key similarities.
Warren Buffet and William O’Neil have both suggested to us that
individual investors gain a distinct advantage over most institutional money
managers whenever they concentrate funds in only a small handful of carefully
selected stocks.
What
I believe inspires investors is that along the way you have the opportunity to
get on board stocks like eResearch Technology Inc. (Nasdaq: ERES)
which is up an exceptional +710.80% from when it was featured in this
newsletter in August ’02. One or
two winners like that could change any investors’ quality of life, provided
they owned enough of it to add up to meaningful profits.

PICTURED:
eResearch Technology Inc. (Nasdaq: ERES)
peaked around the same time the Nasdaq Composite did nearly six weeks ago, and
it is now trading near apparent support at its 50-day moving average line.
It has continued to put up great quarterly financial performances.
Don’t be confused, as a couple of stock splits along the way make it
now look like it was near $5 when featured, but if you read the original
report it was $15.75.
Continuing
with the band analogy a minute more - how many lead guitar players like Carlos
Santana does one band really need to be good?
How many winning stocks like ERES does it take?
My point? Over time it
really doesn’t take many smart purchases to lead to exceptional gains for your
portfolio. Patience and discipline
will help you find the right candidates. But
when you latch onto a strong leader you must also have a heavy concentration of
your portfolio’s assets invested in it to make it worthwhile.
Investors, by diversifying, often dilute their funds too much instead of
concentrating them into wisely selected, well-timed stocks using CANSLIM.
Going
back to the car engine analogy now, it is fair to say that on the racetrack it
is often the car with the most horsepower that wins the race. Horsepower is
almost synonymous with earnings per share growth rates in a CANSLIM-based way of
looking at things. Having a stock
with the highest possible EPS rank does not alone offer investors any guarantee
of victory. O’Neil’s research
has taught us, however, that high-ranked leaders have much better odds of
turning up in the winner’s circle. So,
just because we like the car’s driver or sponsors so to speak, we would rather
not place our bets on low-horsepower companies that are to be considered the
long shots.
Kenneth
J. Gruneisen - A Registered Investment Advisor &
Registered Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group
(Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers personalized
assistance. Investors with a significant financial
interest in equities may inquire about opening an account
by calling the office
locally at (954) 785-1990 or 1-888-237-8399 or emailing to
kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com Further information is always available upon request.
Contact us if
you know anyone that may have an interest in receiving
this or any of our other reports.
Comments contained in the body of this report are
technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of
Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable and
accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be
guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect
transactions, including transactions contrary to any
recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities
mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any
recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an
offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the
purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group,
Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm.
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STOCKS TO |
WATCH IN THIS |
NEW MARKET |
|
Our
staff of experts researches and then compiles a list
of selected stocks which warrant further investigation
by investors. These stocks show strong potential for a
share price breakout based on the CANSLIM investment
methodology. These are not necessarily buy
recommendations. If anytime
throughout the month our contributors find a
particular stock that has similar characteristics as
the ideas featured below we will produce one of our
CANSLIM.net Stock Bulletins or a CANSLIM.net Stock
Alert Report. These reports will be emailed as a direct link to
all subscribers.
|
Aeropostale
Inc
by
Richard W. Miller, Ph.D.
|
http://www.aeropostale.com
|
|
Ticker
Symbol:
ARO
(NYSE)
|
Industry
Group:
Retail – clothing/shoe
|
Shares
Outstanding:
37.5 Million
|
|
Price:
$34.30 (at close 2/27/04)
|
Day's
Volume: 607,200
(at close 2/27/04)
|
Shares
In Float:
32.6 Million
|
|
52
Wk High: $35.48
|
50-Day
Avg Vol: 718,200
|
Up/Down
Vol Ratio: 1.5
|
|
Pivot
Point:
$35.58 (2/19/04 high plus 0.10)
|
Pivot
Point +5% = Max Buy Price:
$37.36
|

Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart
, SEC
Zacks
Reports
Profile:
Aeropostale
is a mall-based specialty retailer of casual apparel
and accessories that targets both young women and men
aged 11 to 20.
The Company gets high marks for both
merchandise and marketing, providing high value-priced
merchandise that’s fashion appropriate.
Further, they use effective in-store
promotions, which brings business into the stores. Currently it operates 460 stores with plans to nearly double
that to 900. Of
importance too, it continues to outperform
competition: in
the five weeks ending 1/3/04, it grew same-store sales
(SSS) 5.7% while AEOS’ and ANF’s fell 5.7%
and 13%, respectively, and it exceeded
management expectations growing SSS by 17.7% in
January. The
company’s industry
group—Retail-clothing/shoe—ranks 76th
of IBD's 197 Industry Groups--but has been moving
lower and that’s a concern:
ranked 24th three months ago and
17th
six months ago.
What
to Look For and Look Out For:
ARO
continues to perform well with excellent IBD rankings,
a Zacks ranking of 2, and top fund interest
increasing from 64 to 121 (89%
increase) over the past four quarters.
Seven other companies within the group and with
a 90 or better composite ranking have seen
significantly less growth in their top fund ownership
over the same period: CHS (+6%), COH(+8%),
CACH(+38%), JOSB(+53%), ROST(-7%),
URBN(+33%).
Further, its annual inventory turnover rate at
13 rivals CHS’ 14.4; URBN’s is next at 9.4.
Analysts expect ARO to report quarterly
earnings of $0.69 per share after the close on
3/11 (raised from $0.66 within the last 30
days), which is 50% year-over-year growth
(expect revenue to grow 29% to 266.2
million for the quarter). Since recommending ARO at $29.60
in the October issue of CANSLIM.net News, the price
has grown to $35.14 (18.7%), but value
remains in the stock as earnings rise.
The risk/reward looks favorable here, as the
next two-year PEG ratios at 0.87 and 1.01
indicate the stock’s price has much room to grow
(compare to CHS’ 1.15 and 0.95, COH’s 0.47
and 1.45, and URBN’s 1.19 and 1.30).
Funds now hold 23% of the stock, and both
earnings and revenues are increasing.
Near term, price increasing beyond $35.48
will mark an all-time high.
It’s On Balance Volume has already exceeded
its value at the 2/19 high. Clearing these highs on
increasing volume validates the play for further price
movement into the $40 range.
Of course that would be very bullish, and it assumes
that the market will remain positive. Meanwhile,
a critical break below its 50-day line (about $32.5)
on increased volume would be a cause for concern and
possibly risk price falling to the support of its
200-day moving average at $27.5.
Technical
Analysis: ARO’s
price traced out a multi-year cup and handle between
6/02 to 8/14, then recently, it completed another, a
four month cup and handle
(C&H) (high handle cup or double bottom)
between 10/15/03 and 2/9/04 (shown by black line in
the figure). Over
the past 20 days, 14 have closed higher than the day
before (2.73 Up/Down Ratio in that period) and
11 days have closed higher than its opening (1.30
Up/Down Ratio portioning volume by open-to-close
relationship. On
2/5/04, the day the Retail (clothing/shoe) industry
group broke out from its same high-handle, ARO,
CHS, JOSB, ROST, and URBN broke over their respective
pivot points as well.
The group is performing well; good value
remains; and top funds are recognizing that fact.
Here, ARO represents a good play for the group.
|
Edge
Petroleum Corp
by
Kenneth
J. Gruneisen
|
http://www.edgepet.com/
|
|
Ticker
Symbol: EPEX (Nasdaq)
|
Industry
Group:
Oil & Gas – US
Exploration
|
Shares
Outstanding:
9.55 Million
|
|
Price:
$11.14 (at close 2/27/04)
|
Day's
Volume: 88,600 (at close 2/27/04)
|
Shares
In Float: 8.50 Million
|
|
52
Wk High: $11.85
(on 1/14/04)
|
50-Day
Avg Vol: 191,800
|
Up/Down
Vol Ratio: 2.0
|
|
Pivot
Point:
$11.95 (01/14/04 high plus 0.10)
|
Pivot
Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $12.54
|

Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart
, SEC,
Zacks
Reports
Profile:
Edge
Petroleum Corporation is an oil and natural gas
company engaged in the exploration, development,
acquisition and production of crude oil and natural
gas properties in the United States.
According to Daily Graphs approximately 6%
of the company’s stock is held by a total of only 12
quality mutual funds.
Management owns an 11% stake, which
keeps them motivated to look after the company and
enhance shareholder value.
There has been confirming strength among
numerous high-ranked leaders in the energy group,
providing nice reassurances.
Revenue
versus the year earlier grew 9%, 39%,
24%, and 72% in September ’03, the latest
in the sequence of its past four financial reports.
Earnings per share in the September ’03
comparison were $0.17 versus $0.02 (+750%) the
same period one year earlier, and the upcoming
comparison versus earnings of just $0.01 for
Dec ’02 make it look like another very easy quarter
to show an eye popping earnings increase.
Insider
buying was reported on 01/14/04 and 02/04/04, which
tells us people most in the know about how the company
is doing have an optimistic outlook.
Currently,
the
company’s industry group ranks 35th of IBD's 197
Industry Groups and has been moving higher, up from
being ranked 108th three months ago.
What
to Look For and Look Out For:
Its next earnings announcement is expected near
March 13, 2004.
In anticipation of the earnings news the
stock’s price might give investors a hint as to how
well things are going in the fundamental department.
If the overall market is dealt more weakness, a
chance to use a tactic of buying near support might
present itself.
Clearing
the $11.95 pivot point on above average volume
would produce a technical buy signal.
Of course that would be very bullish, and it assumes
that the market remains positive and leadership
persists among energy issues. Meanwhile, a
critical breakdown back under the 50-day moving
average line could be a key early warning sign.
A violation of the support at the upward trend
line would be a much more serious indication of chart
failure, and a pretty clear sell signal.
Technical
Analysis:
EPEX
topped its 2000 and 2001 yearly highs in late-December
as it reached the $11 mark, so the fact that it
recently made new multi-year highs is a big positive.
Not long ago, on February 5, 2004 it violated
its 50-day moving average, but it soon repaired that
violation and the price quickly increased to within
close striking range of new highs once again.
For the time being it seems that volume has
been generally quiet, and in the immediate future we
should be watching for confirming strength in the form
of higher volume and any close above its prior high
close of $11.52 on January 13th.
Each month our stock picks are
compiled by several expert contributors who hand-pick
these ideas:
Kenneth
J. Gruneisen - A
Registered Investment Advisor & Registered
Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group
(Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers
personalized assistance.
(954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399 or email kgruneisen@
sourcegrp.com |
Mark
Van Kampen
- an
independent investment analyst with more than 20
years of experience. mvankampen
@aol.com |
Dee
Hendon - 24
years of investing and financial services
experience as a financial services professional
most recently as a broker and technical market
analyst and has been an ardent fan William
O’Neill and the CANSLIM discipline for years. |
Richard
Miller, Ph. D - Statistics
professional and serious trader with years of
technical analysis-based trading. He currently
manages six different portfolios. He maintains his
own website
of stock analysis. rwmill@yahoo.com1 |
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SPECIAL
|
ARTICLE |
|
|
Sector
Performance and the Presidential Cycle
Cycles
abound in the market. From intra-day to multi-year,
one can identify bullish and bearish phases that
repeat often enough to be judged statistically
significant. For example, thirty minutes after the
market opens, most stocks reverse their trend; the
year can be divided into six bullish months (Nov to
Apr) and six bearish months (May to Oct); from the
1880s to the 1990s, the fourth and fifth years of a
decade have outperformed, while the seventh and tenth
years have been under performers. More about cycles
can be found in Larry William’s “The Right Stock
and the Right Time” and Yale and Jeffrey Hirsch’s
“Stock Trader’s Almanac.”

In
the November issue of CANSLIM.net News, I wrote about
the bullish confluence of two such cycles: the
six-month and Presidential cycles. Both are caused by
economic trends that cause money to flow into the
market during bullish periods. At the end of the year,
annual bonuses are distributed; Christmas results in
massive retail spending, and companies end their
fiscal year and distribute dividends. As well, mutual
funds distribute their capital gains; our paychecks
increase after the annual social security obligations
are met; then in the beginning of the year, tax
refunds are collected.
During the pre-election
and election years, the incumbent party does everything
it can to increase the monetary liquidity needed to
support a bullish market. With such bullishness and
optimism, it’s easier to get re-elected. But once
elected, hard decisions are necessary to curb the
earlier inflationary policies. Often, interest rates
begin to rise.
Consider
the performance of 31 industry groups as they relate
to the Presidential cycle, specifically, the last four
Presidential terms. The goal is to identify groups
that have performed better at various times in the
cycle. The figure shows the annual returns for these
31 groups over the 1988 to 2003 years, as well as the
overall average return partitioned by year in the
cycle. Clearly, the pre-election year (last year)
performed best in each term, while the middle years
performed worse. The Fed policy, reflected in the
discount rate changes, is also shown over the period.
Remember too, we fought two gulf wars (Gulf War I
began in January of ’91 and Gulf War II in March of
’03), and the business cycle had reached its latest
trough (November of ’01 according to the National
Bureau of Economic Research).
% Return Averaged Over
Presidential Cycles (1988 - 2003)
|
Industry Groups
(Worden
General Industry Groups)
|
Election
Year |
Post-
Election
Year |
Mid-
Term Year |
Pre-
Election Year |
Companies in IBD 100
List on 2/20/04
|
|
Tobacco |
27.29 |
14.01 |
8.34 |
25.26 |
rjr, mo |
|
Aerospace /
Defense |
26.9 |
7.75 |
-4.49 |
13.71 |
tasr |
|
Insurance |
23.18 |
16.9 |
-4.26 |
21.1 |
aig, jhf |
|
Specialty Retail |
23.08 |
26.17 |
2.04 |
6.7 |
bgfv, fcfs, hibb,
hzo, pwn |
|
Real Estate |
19.04 |
9.06 |
-8.28 |
24.11 |
cfc,
lend, fmt, nde |
|
Drugs |
18.77 |
13.71 |
5.81 |
38.96 |
abax, axca, biib, elab, ivgn, qlti, usna |
|
Banking |
15.76 |
18.53 |
-10.31 |
30.85 |
bbx, fmt, ibn, nara, pvtb, rgf, whi, wsbk |
|
Leisure |
15.59 |
23.44 |
-5.34 |
23.7 |
asca, mbg |
|
Energy |
15.32 |
13.1 |
-6.56 |
20.74 |
gi, petd, pkz, ptr, upl |
|
Financial
Services |
14.85 |
15.48 |
-8.96 |
31.38 |
cacc, ifin, wrld |
|
Transportation |
12.92 |
11.21 |
-16.69 |
27.51 |
gmr, osg, tnp |
|
Automotive |
11.65 |
13.97 |
-13.57 |
15.64 |
nobl,
osk |
|
Retail |
10.46 |
20.48 |
-4.25 |
21.73 |
aro, cach, chs, deg, finl, fl, urbn |
|
Food & Beverages |
9.43 |
14 |
5.32 |
14.36 |
calm, pda, safm, tsn, ppc |
|
Manufacturing |
9.26 |
10.78 |
-11.21 |
19.25 |
crdn, midd, rov, ulbi |
|
Health Services |
7.9 |
17.36 |
6.89 |
35.7 |
brli, dva, hrt, lscp, nmhc |
|
Conglomerates |
7.73 |
11.16 |
-0.36 |
28.34 |
ge,
fo,
kor |
|
Electronics |
7.64 |
10.68 |
1.51 |
75.98 |
faro,
mss, rsti, syna, trid |
|
Media |
7.05 |
14.57 |
-16.88 |
35.27 |
Hlr, mhp |
|
Utilities |
6.97 |
9.44 |
-8.26 |
12.34 |
hnp, tgn,
kse |
|
Wholesale |
6.61 |
12.43 |
-3.37 |
13.45 |
cedc, fsh, scsc,
unfi, wire |
|
Materials &
Construction |
6.53 |
18.29 |
-20.3 |
22.47 |
aco, bhs, dhi, dhom,
dw, ohb, wls |
|
Consumer Non
Durables |
5.42 |
9 |
-0.46 |
23.09 |
coh,
deck, ipar |
|
Consumer Durables |
1.64 |
8.29 |
-4.78 |
27.02 |
har,
nte |
|
Chemicals |
0.56 |
7.27 |
-11.55 |
28.38 |
byh,
shi |
|
Computer Hardware |
0.02 |
-3.89 |
13.97 |
46.81 |
mtlg, omcl, swir |
|
Diversified
Services |
-1.31 |
18.36 |
-7.00 |
20.73 |
esi, nci, uopx |
|
Telecommunications |
-1.78 |
18.8 |
-7.65 |
42.49 |
av, ccbl, ditc, mbt,
mtoh, rimm, sthly, tmb |
|
Computer Software |
-2.85 |
9.48 |
-0.17 |
58.53 |
epic, nnds, say, ssnc |
|
Metals & Mining |
-8.56 |
21.62 |
-3.57 |
37.16 |
ach, fdg, pcu, schn |
|
Internet |
-28.89 |
3.78 |
33.17 |
144.12 |
sina |
Stocks in
blue have good IBD fundamentals but
are not part of the IBD 100 group.
The table
lists the average return over the Presidential cycle
for each of the 31 major groups, as well as selected
members within each group. Sorted by their return in
the election year (this year), clearly Tobacco,
Aerospace/Defense, Insurance, and Specialty Retailers
all have historically performed well in the election
year, as the leadership gets more defensive than the
growth groups favored during the pre-election years.
For example, internet stocks outperformed in the
pre-election year, then rotated out of favor during
the election year.
While things may be different this time, as the tax
cuts for capital spending will induce companies to increase capital outlay, it pays to be aware of these
historic sector rotations.
-
Richard W. Miller, Ph. D.
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MARKET |
SENSE |
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What
To Do During the Current Pullback
-
Soraya Nasrallah, Registered
Representative, Source Capital Group, Inc.
Members NASD/SIPC
This month’s article will offer
you some basic information as to what you may do
during the time of a market pullback like the
one we are currently experiencing. I will then
present some investment ideas that may be worth
a closer look.
The
first thing I want you to do, if you can, is to
obtain a copy of Investor’s Business
Daily’s Thursday,
February 26, 2004 issue and turn to page B2
under “Today’s general market highlights”,
which reads: “The current pullback offers a
great chance to reset your watch list. Prune the
big failures and seek out stocks with high Earnings
Per Share and Relative Price Strength
Ratings forming sound bases.
Steer clear of industry groups running
into trouble…”
Let
us take a look at what this sentence is asking
us to do.
- Resetting your watch list,
meaning, eliminating stocks that are
breaking down or causing you to lose money
(don’t forget the 8% rule). Also,
including new buy candidates that you can
keep an eye on and be ready for when they
break into new highs on larger than average
volume.
Preparedness will help you make wiser
choices.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS)
is the portion of a company’s profits
allocated to each outstanding share of
common stock.
EPS
= Net Income – Dividends on Preferred Stock
/ # of Common Shares Outstanding
It
is important to concentrate your buy candidates
in companies that have increasing EPS every
quarter, EPS going from negative to positive
significantly, or more preferably, EPS gains
greater than 25%. EPS ratings provided in
Investor’s Business Daily show how a stock has
performed versus the rest of stocks in terms of
earnings. An EPS rating of at least 80
is considered the minimum guideline; which means
that a stock outperformed 80% of other
publicly traded stocks. You are wise to take the
time to look closely at the actual sales and
earnings numbers to be sure there is real
substance to the story, as even though their
ranks are a fantastic guide, there is no
replacement for doing the additional legwork to
see how their quarterly results have stacked up
over a period of at least the prior two years.
Remember that strong earnings growth has the
greatest impact on a stock’s future price
performance. (Review page 168 in the
third edition of O'Neil's "How To Make
Money In Stocks").
- Relative Price Strength (RS)
is a measure of price trend that indicates
how a stock is performing relative to other
publicly traded stocks. This rating shows
you which stocks are the best price
performers. According to CAN SLIM, an RS
of at least 80 is preferred. Even if
a stock seems like it is strong, there is
something to be said for the usefulness of
knowing a stock’s rank based upon a
comparison of the price performance relative
to all other stocks.
You can and should always avoid
laggards, and consider a guideline rule of
selling whenever any stock’s RS rank falls
under 70 as its price chart is
clearly deteriorating.
(Review page 169 in the third
edition of "How To Make Money In
Stocks").
- Sound Bases. A sound base
is when the price of a stock is
consolidating (trading sideways) or
correcting from an earlier price advance.
The volume during this time should not be
very significant. (Review page 133 &
134 of How To Make Money In Stocks).
As
we all know, the market has run up quite nicely
ever since the 3-year anniversary of its March
2000 downturn.
Sure, we have a long way to go for the NASDAQ
to challenge its peak, but the Dow never
suffered as bad. The blue chips have already
rebounded much closer to their old high.
During the December ’03 - January ’04
period all of the major indices increased quite
quickly and substantially.
Now it is no wonder they are taking a
breather.
This
market “coffee break” offers a great
opportunity for investors to review their
holdings, take some profits to free up buying
power, and start identifying possible buy
candidates to choose from once the “M”
in CANSLIM gives us a good buy signal.
The
following are some of my selected favorites that
really stood out as I scanned through hundreds
of high-ranked stocks using Daily Graphs.
These recent breakouts have presented
themselves as possible buy candidates based up
on the criteria below:
-
EPS
and RS ranks are over 80
-
Strong
groups and the Industry Group rankings have
been escalating
-
Base
formations followed by breakout as buy
signal
- Mutual
Fund holdings increasing and/or high
management ownership
| Symbol |
Industry
Rank |
Chart
Pattern/Notes |
| PETD |
33,
moving up |
Small
base; breaking out of late-stage base
(see CANSLIM.net
Stock Bulletin released 02/25/02) |
| DECK |
11,
moving up |
Small
base; big volume breakout |
| JAH |
49,
moving up |
Big
breakout from almost 2-month base |
Note:
these stocks are not considered "featured
stocks" by CANSLIM.net unless otherwise
indicated
Soraya
Nasrallah, obtained her Series 7 license in 1992, and
has served in the capacity of Sales Assistant, Head of
Operations Department, and Stockbroker. Contact Soraya Nasrallah via email at
snasrallah@sourcegrp.com or by phone at (954)785-1990 for assistance you with your portfolio. She will be pleased to offer ideas that suit your investment needs, and she can help you achieve the gains you have been searching for.
Miss Nasrallah has just introduced a new educational program
called StockWiz News! specifically created for
teenagers and novice investors, incorporating stock
market basics with CANSLIM in a colorful and picturesque
format. It is the perfect gift for those who just
don’t know much about the world of stocks and
investing!
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a
NASD/SIPC member firm.
|
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SPECIAL |
FEATURE |
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The
Money Manager
Are stockbrokers worth there salt? Are they worth the
commissions you pay? The reason I ask is because The Money Show recently
concluded in Orlando and I wondered why there were such a large number of
products available to the individual investor. I wondered why people pay the
amount of money they do for a product that can’t guarantee the results they
expect. Is it because they have been disillusioned by the role their stockbroker
plays in the management of their portfolio, or the lack thereof?
Probably, and who could blame them?
Can anyone make the right
buying and selling decisions to build their nest egg without working at it full time?
With these hot new products and an hour a night, anyone could. Isn't that
the assumption? How could you miss? It is like painting by numbers. All you
need to remember is that all the 2’s are green, the 3’s are blue, the 5’s
are green and the 8’s are purple. BAM! There you have it, a stable of winning
stocks and a wonderful original oil painting.
Make no mistake here,
some people do very well with their own money. But sadly, most don’t, and this
message is for those people. As consumers and investors you have to be wary of
the message that says,” Anyone can do it and get rich”. It is the
same kind of message that keeps people hoping and buying when they should be
fearful and selling, or visa versa.
The
business of managing money is serious and it requires the care of a responsible,
dedicated person. It’s hard work, many hours every day of hard work.
I’ll say as clearly as I can:
To be a successful independent investor takes hours each day, during and after
the market closes. It really is hard work. It is also pressure under fire,
often stressful and emotional. It requires years of studying the markets. It
is
science and art. At about the time any tendency in the market clearly develops, then
the market
changes gears.
It is unfortunate that many
brokers in our business either don’t put in the required hours of work each
day and weekends, or they haven’t taken it upon themselves to become good at
studying stocks or the market. I don’t care if they hurt themselves, but I do
care when they hurt my business and when they hurt good people by exercising poor
stewardship.
Here is the good part, there
is a breed of manager who has earned his stripes and positive results for
their constituency. There are professional money managers who make it their goal
to be better than the rest of the pack. They care about the people that trust
them and they honor that trust. They’re not always right - no one is - but
they manage money with a discipline and a mindset that protects the assets of
their clients. They work 60 to 80 hours a week and invest their earnings in the
business they love for the benefit of the customer and that customer’s family.
They can be reached late or early. You’ll find them on a regular basis at the
library and bookstore because they are always aware that they must sharpen their
skills.
We sometimes put to much
emphasis on technology and the not enough emphasis on the relationships necessary for a
long-term commitment to excellence. Computers have their place in this business
and they have made life easier for everyone. But they only perform within the
parameters of the programs written and the data they are fed. That is
why most provide only “short term” results. There are simply too many
variables. As well, human psychology must be factored into the equation.
Computers have provided us the means to evaluate more information, but not an excuse to cut corners. We can buy software that tell us what
is hot, but when
the rubber meets the road, a person will have the best chance of success with a full understanding of the
markets - knowing how they work and interact with one another, which sectors are working, and
watching out for anything that could derail our best laid plans. This is the person
studying the day-to-day ebb and flow of the market,
with an unemotional conviction about his or her priorities and concern for the end
results.
What works today is what has
worked before computers were invented. It is what worked for the
greatest investors in history. They didn’t have a super stock-picking software system.
The business of managing money
is serious and it requires the care of a responsible, dedicated person. It is
hard work, many hours of hard work every day.
The person who exercises the
fundamentals of this profession and does it very well is the professional money
manager. Taking it upon himself to be better than the rest so that a lifetime of
savings and sacrifice is not frittered away and lost. Let’s
face it, most brokers won’t stay at work late. However, it is the
professional money manager whose lamp still burns when the sun has long since set,
studying the market, preparing for tomorrow’s challenges. They are the money
managers worth their salt.
- Dee Hendon
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EDITOR'S |
LETTER
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Spring Is Upon Us -
Lessons Learned, Cleaning In Progress
March
is here and spring is just around the corner. Many
folks around the country have dealt with a rather
severe winter season, so the thought of the
forthcoming warmer temperatures, budding flowers,
longer and brighter days should be a boost to their
psyches.
As
for the markets, the month of February hasn’t given
us much to cheer about. Luckily it hasn’t giving
us too much to cry over, either. I spent a good deal
of the time working very closely with our programmers
and IT staff upgrading our servers in an effort to
make the site, as well as our whole operation, run
more efficiently. Considering we have been around
since 1997 it was almost unbelievable to realize how
many different components were on our site. More
astonishing is that so many we are not even using
anymore. Some are pages and ideas that were started
and never finished. Some were finished and used for
some time then, for one reason or another, no
longer needed.
This
made me
wonder… how much is out there on the Internet that
is now long forgotten about by its creators? The thought of the static web pages
alone doesn’t bother me much, but what about all the components such as auto-responders, web bots,
and macros that are gathering information or sending
information automatically. Some of these were once
given “life” and a purpose by someone, and now
they're virtually abandoned. They are still out there, still working
away…
On
another subject, I have rediscovered an important
lesson this past month. The lesson has to do with what
things you can control, what you can’t control, and
what you make uncontrollable means emotionally to you. No
matter what you do, and no matter how much control you
think you may have over a situation, something is
going to eventually happen that you cannot control.
At that point it becomes extremely important to look at
the dilemma as life’s way of forcing you to grow.
Life
throws you a challenge, you can use that challenge to
grow or you can let that challenge beat you. The key to
beating the challenge is to first look at the situation, and then
make the best of the situation. Set yourself up by
saying something like, “Next
year at this time I am going to be so glad that this
has happened to me. It has forced me to adapt and
change what I was doing to become more successful.” Most
of the time, a tough issue also acts as a reality check,
handing you a dose of the cold hard truth. If you continue
to be successful you need to always live in what is
true.
Lastly,
I hope you will be receiving the print version of this
newsletter in your mail box in a more timely manner
than in previous months. As we have been growing at a
fairly rapid rate with more and more folks signing up
for our unique service, staying one step ahead of
postal mail delivery options - in order to be able to
handle our growing subscriber list - has been most
challenging. Bear with us and you'll see that each month we
are implementing better strategies to more effectively handle
the growing workload.
Have
a great month!

James F. Taulman
COO, CANSLIM.net, Inc.
Editor-in-Chief, CANSLIM.net News
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Comments contained in the body of this report are technical
opinions only and are not necessarily those of CANSLIM.net.
The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to
be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness
cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may
effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any
recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities
mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any
recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for
all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or
solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of
any securities. This is an unsolicited opinion, and
CANSLIM.net has not been compensated in any way by the
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CAN SLIM
(written here as "CANSLIM" or "Canslim:) is a registered trademark of William O'Neil + Co.
CANSLIM.net is not owned nor affiliated with William
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