News
"A Vital Source for the CANSLIM Investor" 

Monday,  March 1st, 2004 | 8:32 AM
March
2004
Volume 7, Issue 3
 

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 MARCH    2004    CONTENTS
 
CURRENT    MARKET    CONDITIONS
A overview of the current market conditions - the important "M" in CANSLIM.

Perspective: Making Heads or Tails of this Market
Last month’s lead article was titled, “When the Up Market Stops Going Up”. I urge you to read it if you missed it or review it again if you did read it. Based on the recent market activity, the observations and analysis in that article apply as much this month as they did last month. It has become obvious to chartists that the NASDAQ has weakened while the S&P 500 has shown a little more resilience.  Popularly televised market mavens are covering the entire spectrum of possible market directions. Looking at the two charts of the major indices as my indicators, I've come to my own conclusions.  I suggest that you do the same.

To get a snapshot of the activity within the indexes, I use both daily and weekly charts, volume indicators, advance/ decline line, the indexes new high/low list, and Wilder’s RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) indicator. This information will generally point to trouble spots and - coupled with current economic data - will oftentimes forewarn of a serious storm brewing, or they might indicate the market is only catching its breath. An analysis of these indicators is simple and straightforward.

Looking first at the NASDAQ, we are in a confluence zone between 2,000 and 2,050. This zone is formed by four lines:  the old upward trend line (dotted line) drawn along prior low closes (near the present 50-day moving average),  the next upward trend line (blue line) drawn along the intra-day low points, the pivot highs in December (black line) which coincide with the recent pivot low, and the prior "lower high" (see the line at point "A" on the chart).

A break below the 2,000 range could lead to a deeper drop back towards prior lows in the 1,900 area.  Volume (not shown) has increased with the NASDAQ’s retreat, a definite warning sign but it doesn’t suggest a conclusive end to the current bull move. The sinking relative strength line (see point "B", bottom of chart) magnifies the NASDAQ’s weakness, having established a series of lower highs and lower lows much like the price has. Normally this is an early caution light to investors.  As a side note, stocks making new highs versus new lows is following the same reversal pattern. The RSI indicator started turning to the negative in January and it has fallen for more than the past month. These indicators suggest that NASDAQ could fall further. I am planning for that contingency, but I’m not assuming anything.

The S&P 500 looks a bit more stable, but it too is at an important intersection of trend lines and pivot low support areas, between 1,125 and 1,170 (see "A" on the chart). The RSI also indicates weakness but it has held up at previous lows at around 50. What is encouraging is that we are still seeing higher highs and higher lows on the bellwether S&P 500 Index's chart. So, for now we are only seeing a mild consolidation. The S&P 500 could fall to 1,125 and still not violate the 50-day moving average or the longer-term trend line (black dotted line). The advance-decline line is holding up, as is the new high-low indicator (neither are shown here). If those things start to change then my opinion may change to a more negative position.  

There is positive news that should help to continue the market’s gains beyond those achieved over the past 12 months. I am optimistic for the remainder of the year because the market has continually held up at crucial support, and more money is flowing into the market via mutual funds and late arriving investors.  Also, interest rates have stayed low and foreign central banks are still buying our bonds. Current economic indicators suggest a strong economy. The presidential election this November, I believe, will also help lead to positive market results in 2004.

Many have written off the housing market, but earnings and growth projections in this sector continue to improve. Housing statistics serve as important barometer for many ancillary consumer sectors. In the top 50 of this week’s IBD 100 stock list there were 5 homebuilders, 6 apparel/shoe companies, and 4 energy related stocks. This suggests that consumption is still fueling the economy and money is changing hands. This is good. Absent from the top 50 are Internet, chip, computer and software companies. This parallels the sector charts, which show continued strength in the consumer, leisure, insurance, banking and utilities sectors, while the high tech, transports and senior growth stocks are deteriorating.

We are at an important technical crossroads for the near term, but for the rest of the year I see a positive story. If things change or continue to worsen then an alternative plan will have to be put into play to preserve capital.  Otherwise, I'd be getting ready to still be proactive about buying.

Read my article from the February '04 issue of CANSLIM.net News again, and be prepared whether the market comes up heads or tails.

- Dee Hendon

 
 MARKETS    LEADING    GROUPS
You stack the odds of making a winning trade in your favor by choosing a leading company in a leading industry group, so when buying stocks be sure to choose one with plenty of company, that is a stock trading among a group of several strong-performing peers!  Familiarize yourself with the list of the top performing industry groups and leading stocks listed below.  These symbols and related companies ARE NOT intended to be construed as a list of timely and proper CANSLIM-based choices.* These pace-setters in each of the currently top-ranked groups listed may not presently fit within the guidelines we suggest adhering to.  The point is that it is always wise to choose leaders in the same or a very similar business to that of the strongest stocks in the market.  Find companies that resemble other strong stocks' leadership characteristics.

*CANSLIM.net's most timely buy candidates are analyzed by our experts in great detail in the "Stocks to Watch in This New Market "section.   

 
Rank Group Name Leaders
1 Telecom - Wireless, Equipment, Services SWIR, RIMM, QCOM, NOK, VSAT, AUDC, CCBL, DITC, HRS, SEAC, AMX, MBT, SKM, VIP, STHLY
2 Retail - Apparel, Shoes, Etc. DECK, RCKY, FOSL, GES, PSUN, CBUK, JOSB, URBN, CACH, ARO, FL, TSA
3 Energy - Oil, Gas, Coal PETD, UPL, KCS, CWEI, EPEX, NEV, FDG, HDWR
4 Steel-Producers & Specialty Alloys GGB, PKX, SID, STLD, TS, TIE, GTI, RTI, CRS, ATI
5 Medical-Systems/Equipment VAR, LSCP, OMCL, FSH, CLZR, ABAX, PMTI
6 Financial - Banks, Mortgage Related  CBH, CAPX, HCBK, LEND, FMT, CFC, SAXN
7 Transportation - Tankers/Shipping TNP, GLNG, FRO, TK, TRMD
8 Electronics - Scientific/Measuring MTSC, FARO, CYBE, LCRY, TMO, IVIS, MSS, ADEX
9 Computer Software - Security SYMC, NSCN, SFNT, SCUR, TMIC, SSNC, TSAI
10 Metal Ores CLF, PD, PCU, RIO, ACO

Note: Links above (in Leaders column) refer to write-ups on previously featured stocks.

- CANSLIM.net News Staff

 
INVESTING   FOR    THE   NEW  MILLENNIUM

Make Sure Your Portfolio is Tuned Up for a Great Performance
by  Kenneth J. Gruneisen, Registered Investment Advisor, Source Capital Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC
Let's compare the major indices to a band or orchestra for a minute.  When each instrument is not properly tuned and playing in the right key, the musical performance obviously suffers.  If you are not a musician, another comparison works if you understand a little bit about automobile engines.  It tells you a lot about how strong an engine is running if you know how many of its cylinders are firing correctly.  Why talk about cars or music?  Well, in terms of investing, it is fair to say that the major indices are our engine's cylinders, or our musical instruments, in each of these analogies that essentially involve proper tuning.

So, how well tuned the market is for our investing success can be determined by studying the charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000.  It is best when these averages are providing widespread confirmation by showing unanimous strength on their price and volume graphs but there are sometimes occasions (like now) when they give us mixed signals.  As long as there remains a divergence between the blue chips and the small caps, investors are being warned by the market that the engine or band is out of tune.

Again using the band comparison, think about how true it is that with a bigger group the scheduling gets trickier due to your having to coordinate what fits comfortably into more band members' timetables.  Meanwhile, a great duo or trio can sometimes be just as exciting and rewarding, maybe even more stimulating than hearing a large orchestra as long as the small group includes exceptional performers.  Translate that to stocks and there are some key similarities.  Warren Buffet and William O’Neil have both suggested to us that individual investors gain a distinct advantage over most institutional money managers whenever they concentrate funds in only a small handful of carefully selected stocks.

What I believe inspires investors is that along the way you have the opportunity to get on board stocks like eResearch Technology Inc. (Nasdaq: ERES) which is up an exceptional +710.80% from when it was featured in this newsletter in August ’02.  One or two winners like that could change any investors’ quality of life, provided they owned enough of it to add up to meaningful profits.

PICTURED: eResearch Technology Inc. (Nasdaq: ERES) peaked around the same time the Nasdaq Composite did nearly six weeks ago, and it is now trading near apparent support at its 50-day moving average line.  It has continued to put up great quarterly financial performances.  Don’t be confused, as a couple of stock splits along the way make it now look like it was near $5 when featured, but if you read the original report it was $15.75.

Continuing with the band analogy a minute more - how many lead guitar players like Carlos Santana does one band really need to be good?  How many winning stocks like ERES does it take?  My point?  Over time it really doesn’t take many smart purchases to lead to exceptional gains for your portfolio.  Patience and discipline will help you find the right candidates.  But when you latch onto a strong leader you must also have a heavy concentration of your portfolio’s assets invested in it to make it worthwhile.  Investors, by diversifying, often dilute their funds too much instead of concentrating them into wisely selected, well-timed stocks using CANSLIM.

Going back to the car engine analogy now, it is fair to say that on the racetrack it is often the car with the most horsepower that wins the race. Horsepower is almost synonymous with earnings per share growth rates in a CANSLIM-based way of looking at things.  Having a stock with the highest possible EPS rank does not alone offer investors any guarantee of victory.  O’Neil’s research has taught us, however, that high-ranked leaders have much better odds of turning up in the winner’s circle.  So, just because we like the car’s driver or sponsors so to speak, we would rather not place our bets on low-horsepower companies that are to be considered the long shots.

 

Kenneth J. Gruneisen - A Registered Investment Advisor & Registered Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group (Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers personalized assistance. Investors with a significant financial interest in equities may inquire about opening an account by calling the office locally at (954) 785-1990 or 1-888-237-8399 or emailing to kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com  Further information is always available upon request. Contact us if you know anyone that may have an interest in receiving this or any of our other reports.

Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm.

 
STOCKS    TO WATCH   IN   THIS NEW    MARKET
Our staff of experts researches and then compiles a list of selected stocks which warrant further investigation by investors. These stocks show strong potential for a share price breakout based on the CANSLIM investment methodology. These are not necessarily buy recommendations. If anytime throughout the month our contributors find a particular stock that has similar characteristics as the ideas featured below we will produce one of our CANSLIM.net Stock Bulletins or a CANSLIM.net Stock Alert Report. These reports will be emailed as a direct link to all subscribers.

Aeropostale Inc  by Richard W. Miller, Ph.D.

http://www.aeropostale.com

Ticker Symbol: ARO    (NYSE)

Industry Group: Retail – clothing/shoe

Shares Outstanding: 37.5 Million

Price: $34.30 (at close 2/27/04)

Day's Volume: 607,200 (at close 2/27/04)

Shares In Float: 32.6 Million

52 Wk High: $35.48

50-Day Avg Vol: 718,200

Up/Down Vol Ratio: 1.5

Pivot Point: $35.58 (2/19/04 high plus 0.10)

Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $37.36

Financials, StockTalk,  News, Chart , SEC Zacks Reports

Profile: Aeropostale is a mall-based specialty retailer of casual apparel and accessories that targets both young women and men aged 11 to 20.  The Company gets high marks for both merchandise and marketing, providing high value-priced merchandise that’s fashion appropriate.  Further, they use effective in-store promotions, which brings business into the stores.  Currently it operates 460 stores with plans to nearly double that to 900.  Of importance too, it continues to outperform competition:  in the five weeks ending 1/3/04, it grew same-store sales (SSS) 5.7% while AEOS’ and ANF’s fell 5.7% and 13%, respectively, and it exceeded management expectations growing SSS by 17.7% in January.  The company’s industry group—Retail-clothing/shoe—ranks 76th of IBD's 197 Industry Groups--but has been moving lower and that’s a concern: ranked 24th three months ago and 17th six months ago.

What to Look For and Look Out For:  ARO continues to perform well with excellent IBD rankings, a Zacks ranking of 2, and top fund interest increasing from 64 to 121 (89% increase) over the past four quarters.  Seven other companies within the group and with a 90 or better composite ranking have seen significantly less growth in their top fund ownership over the same period: CHS (+6%), COH(+8%), CACH(+38%), JOSB(+53%), ROST(-7%), URBN(+33%).  Further, its annual inventory turnover rate at 13 rivals CHS’ 14.4; URBN’s is next at 9.4. Analysts expect ARO to report quarterly earnings of $0.69 per share after the close on 3/11 (raised from $0.66 within the last 30 days), which is 50% year-over-year growth (expect revenue to grow 29% to 266.2 million for the quarter). Since recommending ARO at $29.60 in the October issue of CANSLIM.net News, the price has grown to $35.14 (18.7%), but value remains in the stock as earnings rise.  The risk/reward looks favorable here, as the next two-year PEG ratios at 0.87 and 1.01 indicate the stock’s price has much room to grow (compare to CHS’ 1.15 and 0.95, COH’s 0.47 and 1.45, and URBN’s 1.19 and 1.30).  Funds now hold 23% of the stock, and both earnings and revenues are increasing.  Near term, price increasing beyond $35.48 will mark an all-time high.  It’s On Balance Volume has already exceeded its value at the 2/19 high. Clearing these highs on increasing volume validates the play for further price movement into the $40 range.  Of course that would be very bullish, and it assumes that the market will remain positive.  Meanwhile, a critical break below its 50-day line (about $32.5) on increased volume would be a cause for concern and possibly risk price falling to the support of its 200-day moving average at $27.5.

Technical Analysis:   ARO’s price traced out a multi-year cup and handle between 6/02 to 8/14, then recently, it completed another, a four month cup and handle  (C&H) (high handle cup or double bottom) between 10/15/03 and 2/9/04 (shown by black line in the figure).  Over the past 20 days, 14 have closed higher than the day before (2.73 Up/Down Ratio in that period) and 11 days have closed higher than its opening (1.30 Up/Down Ratio portioning volume by open-to-close relationship.  On 2/5/04, the day the Retail (clothing/shoe) industry group broke out from its same high-handle, ARO, CHS, JOSB, ROST, and URBN broke over their respective pivot points as well.  The group is performing well; good value remains; and top funds are recognizing that fact. Here, ARO represents a good play for the group.


Edge Petroleum Corp  by Kenneth J. Gruneisen

http://www.edgepet.com/

Ticker Symbol: EPEX    (Nasdaq)

Industry Group: Oil & Gas – US Exploration

Shares Outstanding: 9.55 Million

Price: $11.14 (at close 2/27/04)

Day's Volume: 88,600 (at close 2/27/04)

Shares In Float: 8.50 Million

52 Wk High: $11.85 (on 1/14/04)

50-Day Avg Vol: 191,800

Up/Down Vol Ratio: 2.0

Pivot Point: $11.95 (01/14/04 high plus 0.10)

Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $12.54

Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports

Profile: Edge Petroleum Corporation is an oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration, development, acquisition and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States.  According to Daily Graphs approximately 6% of the company’s stock is held by a total of only 12 quality mutual funds.  Management owns an 11% stake, which keeps them motivated to look after the company and enhance shareholder value.  There has been confirming strength among numerous high-ranked leaders in the energy group, providing nice reassurances.  Revenue versus the year earlier grew 9%, 39%, 24%, and 72% in September ’03, the latest in the sequence of its past four financial reports.  Earnings per share in the September ’03 comparison were $0.17 versus $0.02 (+750%) the same period one year earlier, and the upcoming comparison versus earnings of just $0.01 for Dec ’02 make it look like another very easy quarter to show an eye popping earnings increase.   Insider buying was reported on 01/14/04 and 02/04/04, which tells us people most in the know about how the company is doing have an optimistic outlook.  Currently, the company’s industry group ranks 35th of IBD's 197 Industry Groups and has been moving higher, up from being ranked 108th three months ago.

What to Look For and Look Out For:  Its next earnings announcement is expected near March 13, 2004.  In anticipation of the earnings news the stock’s price might give investors a hint as to how well things are going in the fundamental department.  If the overall market is dealt more weakness, a chance to use a tactic of buying near support might present itself.  Clearing the $11.95 pivot point on above average volume would produce a technical buy signal.  Of course that would be very bullish, and it assumes that the market remains positive and leadership persists among energy issues.  Meanwhile, a critical breakdown back under the 50-day moving average line could be a key early warning sign.  A violation of the support at the upward trend line would be a much more serious indication of chart failure, and a pretty clear sell signal.

Technical Analysis:  EPEX topped its 2000 and 2001 yearly highs in late-December as it reached the $11 mark, so the fact that it recently made new multi-year highs is a big positive.  Not long ago, on February 5, 2004 it violated its 50-day moving average, but it soon repaired that violation and the price quickly increased to within close striking range of new highs once again.  For the time being it seems that volume has been generally quiet, and in the immediate future we should be watching for confirming strength in the form of higher volume and any close above its prior high close of $11.52 on January 13th.

Each month our stock picks are compiled by several expert contributors who hand-pick these ideas:
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - A Registered Investment Advisor & Registered Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group (Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers personalized assistance.  
 (954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399 or email kgruneisen@ sourcegrp.com
Mark Van Kampenan independent investment analyst with more than 20 years of experience. mvankampen @aol.com Dee Hendon - 24 years of investing and financial services experience as a financial services professional most recently as a broker and technical market analyst and has been an ardent fan William O’Neill and the CANSLIM discipline for years. Richard Miller, Ph. D  -   Statistics professional and serious trader with years of technical analysis-based trading. He currently manages six different portfolios. He maintains his own website of stock analysis. rwmill@yahoo.com1
 
SPECIAL ARTICLE            
Sector Performance and the Presidential Cycle
Cycles abound in the market. From intra-day to multi-year, one can identify bullish and bearish phases that repeat often enough to be judged statistically significant. For example, thirty minutes after the market opens, most stocks reverse their trend; the year can be divided into six bullish months (Nov to Apr) and six bearish months (May to Oct); from the 1880s to the 1990s, the fourth and fifth years of a decade have outperformed, while the seventh and tenth years have been under performers. More about cycles can be found in Larry William’s “The Right Stock and the Right Time” and Yale and Jeffrey Hirsch’s “Stock Trader’s Almanac.”

In the November issue of CANSLIM.net News, I wrote about the bullish confluence of two such cycles: the six-month and Presidential cycles. Both are caused by economic trends that cause money to flow into the market during bullish periods. At the end of the year, annual bonuses are distributed; Christmas results in massive retail spending, and companies end their fiscal year and distribute dividends. As well, mutual funds distribute their capital gains; our paychecks increase after the annual social security obligations are met; then in the beginning of the year, tax refunds are collected.

During the pre-election and election years, the incumbent party does everything it can to increase the monetary liquidity needed to support a bullish market. With such bullishness and optimism, it’s easier to get re-elected. But once elected, hard decisions are necessary to curb the earlier inflationary policies. Often, interest rates begin to rise.

Consider the performance of 31 industry groups as they relate to the Presidential cycle, specifically, the last four Presidential terms. The goal is to identify groups that have performed better at various times in the cycle. The figure shows the annual returns for these 31 groups over the 1988 to 2003 years, as well as the overall average return partitioned by year in the cycle. Clearly, the pre-election year (last year) performed best in each term, while the middle years performed worse. The Fed policy, reflected in the discount rate changes, is also shown over the period. Remember too, we fought two gulf wars (Gulf War I began in January of ’91 and Gulf War II in March of ’03), and the business cycle had reached its latest trough (November of ’01 according to the National Bureau of Economic Research).

% Return Averaged Over Presidential Cycles (1988 - 2003)

Industry Groups
(Worden General Industry Groups)

Election
Year
Post-
Election
Year
Mid-
Term Year
Pre-
Election Year

Companies in IBD 100
List on 2/20/04

Tobacco 27.29 14.01 8.34 25.26 rjr, mo
Aerospace / Defense 26.9 7.75 -4.49 13.71 tasr
Insurance 23.18 16.9 -4.26 21.1 aig, jhf
Specialty Retail 23.08 26.17 2.04 6.7 bgfv, fcfs, hibb, hzo, pwn
Real Estate 19.04 9.06 -8.28 24.11 cfc, lend, fmt, nde
Drugs 18.77 13.71 5.81 38.96 abax, axca, biib, elab, ivgn, qlti, usna
Banking 15.76 18.53 -10.31 30.85 bbx, fmt, ibn, nara, pvtb, rgf, whi, wsbk
Leisure 15.59 23.44 -5.34 23.7 asca,  mbg
Energy 15.32 13.1 -6.56 20.74 gi, petd, pkz, ptr, upl
Financial Services 14.85 15.48 -8.96 31.38 cacc, ifin, wrld
Transportation 12.92 11.21 -16.69 27.51 gmr, osg, tnp
Automotive 11.65 13.97 -13.57 15.64 nobl, osk
Retail 10.46 20.48 -4.25 21.73 aro, cach, chs, deg, finl, fl, urbn
Food & Beverages 9.43 14 5.32 14.36 calm,  pda, safm, tsn, ppc
Manufacturing 9.26 10.78 -11.21 19.25 crdn, midd, rov, ulbi
Health Services 7.9 17.36 6.89 35.7 brli, dva, hrt, lscp, nmhc
Conglomerates 7.73 11.16 -0.36 28.34 ge, fo, kor
Electronics 7.64 10.68 1.51 75.98 faro, mss, rsti, syna, trid
Media 7.05 14.57 -16.88 35.27 Hlr, mhp
Utilities 6.97 9.44 -8.26 12.34 hnp, tgn, kse
Wholesale 6.61 12.43 -3.37 13.45 cedc, fsh, scsc, unfi, wire
Materials & Construction 6.53 18.29 -20.3 22.47 aco, bhs, dhi, dhom, dw, ohb, wls
Consumer Non Durables 5.42 9 -0.46 23.09 coh, deck, ipar
Consumer Durables 1.64 8.29 -4.78 27.02 har, nte
Chemicals 0.56 7.27 -11.55 28.38 byh, shi
Computer Hardware 0.02 -3.89 13.97 46.81 mtlg, omcl, swir
Diversified Services -1.31 18.36 -7.00 20.73 esi, nci, uopx
Telecommunications -1.78 18.8 -7.65 42.49 av, ccbl, ditc, mbt, mtoh, rimm, sthly, tmb
Computer Software -2.85 9.48 -0.17 58.53 epic, nnds, say, ssnc
Metals & Mining -8.56 21.62 -3.57 37.16 ach, fdg, pcu, schn
Internet -28.89 3.78 33.17 144.12 sina

Stocks in blue have good IBD fundamentals but are not part of the IBD 100 group.

The table lists the average return over the Presidential cycle for each of the 31 major groups, as well as selected members within each group. Sorted by their return in the election year (this year), clearly Tobacco, Aerospace/Defense, Insurance, and Specialty Retailers all have historically performed well in the election year, as the leadership gets more defensive than the growth groups favored during the pre-election years. For example, internet stocks outperformed in the pre-election year, then rotated out of favor during the election year.  While things may be different this time, as the tax cuts for capital spending will induce companies to increase capital outlay, it pays to be aware of these historic sector rotations.

- Richard W. Miller, Ph. D.

 
MARKET   SENSE            

What To Do During the Current Pullback - Soraya Nasrallah, Registered Representative, Source Capital Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC 
This month’s article will offer you some basic information as to what you may do during the time of a market pullback like the one we are currently experiencing. I will then present some investment ideas that may be worth a closer look. 

The first thing I want you to do, if you can, is to obtain a copy of Investor’s Business Daily’s  Thursday, February 26, 2004 issue and turn to page B2 under “Today’s general market highlights”, which reads: “The current pullback offers a great chance to reset your watch list. Prune the big failures and seek out stocks with high Earnings Per Share and Relative Price Strength Ratings forming sound bases.  Steer clear of industry groups running into trouble…” 

Let us take a look at what this sentence is asking us to do.

  1. Resetting your watch list, meaning, eliminating stocks that are breaking down or causing you to lose money (don’t forget the 8% rule). Also, including new buy candidates that you can keep an eye on and be ready for when they break into new highs on larger than average volume.  Preparedness will help you make wiser choices. 
  2. Earnings Per Share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profits allocated to each outstanding share of common stock.

EPS = Net Income – Dividends on Preferred Stock / # of Common Shares Outstanding 

It is important to concentrate your buy candidates in companies that have increasing EPS every quarter, EPS going from negative to positive significantly, or more preferably, EPS gains greater than 25%. EPS ratings provided in Investor’s Business Daily show how a stock has performed versus the rest of stocks in terms of earnings. An EPS rating of at least 80 is considered the minimum guideline; which means that a stock outperformed 80% of other publicly traded stocks. You are wise to take the time to look closely at the actual sales and earnings numbers to be sure there is real substance to the story, as even though their ranks are a fantastic guide, there is no replacement for doing the additional legwork to see how their quarterly results have stacked up over a period of at least the prior two years. Remember that strong earnings growth has the greatest impact on a stock’s future price performance. (Review page 168 in the third edition of O'Neil's "How To Make Money In Stocks").

  1. Relative Price Strength (RS) is a measure of price trend that indicates how a stock is performing relative to other publicly traded stocks. This rating shows you which stocks are the best price performers. According to CAN SLIM, an RS of at least 80 is preferred. Even if a stock seems like it is strong, there is something to be said for the usefulness of knowing a stock’s rank based upon a comparison of the price performance relative to all other stocks.  You can and should always avoid laggards, and consider a guideline rule of selling whenever any stock’s RS rank falls under 70 as its price chart is clearly deteriorating.    (Review page 169 in the third edition of "How To Make Money In Stocks").
  2. Sound Bases. A sound base is when the price of a stock is consolidating (trading sideways) or correcting from an earlier price advance. The volume during this time should not be very significant. (Review page 133 & 134 of How To Make Money In Stocks).

As we all know, the market has run up quite nicely ever since the 3-year anniversary of its March 2000 downturn.  Sure, we have a long way to go for the NASDAQ to challenge its peak, but the Dow never suffered as bad. The blue chips have already rebounded much closer to their old high.  During the December ’03 - January ’04 period all of the major indices increased quite quickly and substantially.  Now it is no wonder they are taking a breather.

This market “coffee break” offers a great opportunity for investors to review their holdings, take some profits to free up buying power, and start identifying possible buy candidates to choose from once the “M” in CANSLIM gives us a good buy signal.

The following are some of my selected favorites that really stood out as I scanned through hundreds of high-ranked stocks using Daily Graphs.  These recent breakouts have presented themselves as possible buy candidates based up on the criteria below:

  • EPS and RS ranks are over 80

  • Strong groups and the Industry Group rankings have been escalating

  • Base formations followed by breakout as buy signal

  • Mutual Fund holdings increasing and/or high management ownership
Symbol Industry Rank Chart Pattern/Notes
PETD 33, moving up Small base; breaking out of late-stage base (see CANSLIM.net Stock Bulletin released 02/25/02)
DECK 11, moving up Small base; big volume breakout
JAH 49, moving up Big breakout from almost 2-month base

Note: these stocks are not considered "featured stocks" by CANSLIM.net unless otherwise indicated

 
Soraya Nasrallah, obtained her Series 7 license in 1992, and has served in the capacity of Sales Assistant, Head of Operations Department, and Stockbroker.  Contact Soraya Nasrallah via email at snasrallah@sourcegrp.com or by phone at (954)785-1990 for assistance you with your portfolio. She will be pleased to offer ideas that suit your investment needs, and she can help you achieve the gains you have been searching for.  Miss Nasrallah has just introduced a new educational program called StockWiz News! specifically created for teenagers and novice investors, incorporating stock market basics with CANSLIM in a colorful and picturesque format. It is the perfect gift for those who just don’t know much about the world of stocks and investing!

Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm. 

 
SPECIAL    FEATURE           

The Money Manager
Are stockbrokers worth there salt? Are they worth the commissions you pay? The reason I ask is because The Money Show recently concluded in Orlando and I wondered why there were such a large number of products available to the individual investor. I wondered why people pay the amount of money they do for a product that can’t guarantee the results they expect. Is it because they have been disillusioned by the role their stockbroker plays in the management of their portfolio, or the lack thereof?  Probably, and who could blame them?

Can anyone make the right buying and selling decisions to build their nest egg without working at it full time? With these hot new products and an hour a night,  anyone could. Isn't that the assumption? How could you miss? It is like painting by numbers. All you need to remember is that all the 2’s are green, the 3’s are blue, the 5’s are green and the 8’s are purple. BAM! There you have it, a stable of winning stocks and a wonderful original oil painting.

Make no mistake here,  some people do very well with their own money. But sadly, most don’t, and this message is for those people. As consumers and investors you have to be wary of the message that says,” Anyone can do it and get rich”. It is the same kind of message that keeps people hoping and buying when they should be fearful and selling, or visa versa.

The business of managing money is serious and it requires the care of a responsible, dedicated person. It’s hard work, many hours every day of hard work.

I’ll say as clearly as I can: To be a successful independent investor takes hours each day, during and after the market closes. It really is hard work. It is also pressure under fire, often stressful and emotional.  It requires years of studying the markets. It is science and art. At about the time any tendency in the market clearly develops, then the market changes gears.

It is unfortunate that many brokers in our business either don’t put in the required hours of work each day and weekends, or they haven’t taken it upon themselves to become good at studying stocks or the market. I don’t care if they hurt themselves, but I do care when they hurt my business and when they hurt good people by exercising poor stewardship.

Here is the good part, there is a breed of manager who has earned his stripes and positive results for their constituency. There are professional money managers who make it their goal to be better than the rest of the pack. They care about the people that trust them and they honor that trust. They’re not always right - no one is - but they manage money with a discipline and a mindset that protects the assets of their clients. They work 60 to 80 hours a week and invest their earnings in the business they love for the benefit of the customer and that customer’s family. They can be reached late or early. You’ll find them on a regular basis at the library and bookstore because they are always aware that they must sharpen their skills.

We sometimes put to much emphasis on technology and the not enough emphasis on the relationships necessary for a long-term commitment to excellence. Computers have their place in this business and they have made life easier for everyone. But they only perform within the parameters of the programs written and the data they are fed. That is why most provide only “short term” results. There are simply too many variables. As well, human psychology must be factored into the equation. Computers have provided us the means to evaluate more information, but not an excuse to cut corners. We can buy software that tell us what is hot, but when the rubber meets the road, a person will have the best chance of success with a full understanding of the markets - knowing how they work and interact with one another, which sectors are working, and watching out for anything that could derail our best laid plans. This is the person studying the day-to-day ebb and flow of the market, with an unemotional conviction about his or her priorities and concern for the end results.

What works today is what has worked before computers were invented. It is what worked for the greatest investors in history. They didn’t have a super stock-picking  software system.

The business of managing money is serious and it requires the care of a responsible, dedicated person. It is hard work, many hours of hard work every day.

The person who exercises the fundamentals of this profession and does it very well is the professional money manager. Taking it upon himself to be better than the rest so that a lifetime of savings and sacrifice is not frittered away and lost.  Let’s face it, most brokers won’t stay at work late. However, it is the professional money manager whose lamp still burns when the sun has long since set, studying the market, preparing for tomorrow’s challenges. They are the money managers worth their salt.

- Dee Hendon

 
EDITOR'S  LETTER            
Spring Is Upon Us - Lessons Learned, Cleaning In Progress

March is here and spring is just around the corner. Many folks around the country have dealt with a rather severe winter season, so the thought of the forthcoming warmer temperatures, budding flowers, longer and brighter days should be a boost to their psyches.

As for the markets, the month of February hasn’t given us much to cheer about. Luckily it hasn’t giving us too much to cry over, either. I spent a good deal of the time working very closely with our programmers and IT staff upgrading our servers in an effort to make the site, as well as our whole operation, run more efficiently. Considering we have been around since 1997 it was almost unbelievable to realize how many different components were on our site. More astonishing is that so many we are not even using anymore. Some are pages and ideas that were started and never finished. Some were finished and used for some time then, for one reason or another, no longer needed.

This made me wonder… how much is out there on the Internet that is now long forgotten about by its creators? The thought of the static web pages alone doesn’t bother me much, but what about all the components such as auto-responders, web bots, and macros that are gathering information or sending information automatically. Some of these were once given “life” and a purpose by someone, and now they're virtually abandoned. They are still out there, still working away…

On another subject, I have rediscovered an important lesson this past month. The lesson has to do with what things you can control, what you can’t control, and what you make uncontrollable means emotionally to you. No matter what you do, and no matter how much control you think you may have over a situation, something is going to eventually happen that you cannot control. At that point it becomes extremely important to look at the dilemma as life’s way of forcing you to grow.

Life throws you a challenge, you can use that challenge to grow or you can let that challenge beat you. The key to beating the challenge is to first look at the situation, and then make the best of the situation. Set yourself up by saying something like,  “Next year at this time I am going to be so glad that this has happened to me. It has forced me to adapt and change what I was doing to become more successful.” Most of the time, a tough issue also acts as a reality check, handing you a dose of the cold hard truth. If you continue to be successful you need to always live in what is true.

Lastly, I hope you will be receiving the print version of this newsletter in your mail box in a more timely manner than in previous months. As we have been growing at a fairly rapid rate with more and more folks signing up for our unique service, staying one step ahead of postal mail delivery options - in order to be able to handle our growing subscriber list - has been most challenging. Bear with us and you'll see that each month we are implementing better strategies to more effectively handle the growing workload.

Have a great month!

James F. Taulman
COO, CANSLIM.net, Inc.
Editor-in-Chief, CANSLIM.net News

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Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of CANSLIM.net.  The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto.  Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities.  This is an unsolicited opinion, and CANSLIM.net has not been compensated in any way by the company(s) mentioned in this report.

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