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News
EARLY EDITION
"An
Essential Monthly Newsletter for the CANSLIM Oriented Investor" |
Volume
6, Issue 9 - $7.95
Sunday, August
31st, 2003 | 10:56 PM |
|
Dow 9,415.82
+41.61 (+0.44%)
| Nasdaq 1,810.45
+10.27 (+0.57%)
| S&P 500 1,008.01
+5.17 (+0.52%) |
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EDITOR'S
NOTE: This is an early edition of our September '03 issue. A
complete edition including more commentary from our experts will be
released by Tuesday evening. Also, considering
the overall market conditions we plan to be releasing more of our
CANSLIM.net Stock Bulletins through out next week.
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| MARKETS |
LEADING |
GROUPS |
|
The purpose of this
section is simply to make sure that you are familiar
with the pace setters in each of these top-ranked groups at
the present time. The symbols of companies
listed should not be considered specific buy
recommendations, nor should you assume that all of the
stocks listed are proper CANSLIM-based choices. Know
that your
chances will be better by choosing a leading stock
that meets the CANSLIM guidelines and is in a leading industry
group, or essentially, one that has plenty of company
or that is among several strong-performing peers. So,
make yourself familiar with the list
of the top performing industry groups and the leading
stocks below.
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1 |
Internet-Content
|
6 |
Elec-Semiconductor Mfg
|
|
|
|
NTES, YHOO, ASKJ,
SINA, FWHT |
MRVL,
LEXR, SNDK, SLAB, POWI |
|
2 |
Internet-Isp
|
7 |
Elec-Semiconductor
Equip |
|
|
|
UNTD, JCOM, WEBX,
CRFH |
CCMP, UTEK, BRKS,
ASML, IBIS
|
|
3 |
Telecom-Wireless
Equip |
8 |
Retail/Whlsle-Cmptr/Cell |
|
|
|
UTSI, KVHI, SLNK,
QCOM, CMTL |
NSIT,
SCSC, CELL, CDWC, PCCC |
|
4 |
Internet-E Commerce
|
9 |
Transportation-Airline
|
|
|
|
UOPX, AMZN, ECLG,
AMTD, EBAY |
AAI, JBLU, MESA, FRNT |
|
5 |
Elec-Misc
Products |
10 |
Medical-Nursing Homes
|
|
|
|
AFCO,
RSTI, MTLG, RSYS, PLT |
ODSY,
SEM, VSTA, KIND, HCR |
|
| STOCKS
TO |
WATCH
IN THIS |
NEW
MARKET |
|
"Trade What You See, Not
What You Believe"
Assuming small-cap and mid-cap stocks continue their latest run of strength, there will be many new and continuing breakouts. In this section we aim to give you some of the better ideas to focus on under the guidelines outlined by O’Neil in "How to Make Money in Stocks". In the short-term it would be better to have the confirmation of the S&P 500 Index accompanying the Nasdaq in the latest break to the upside out of its summertime trading range. But while watching for that broad-market confirmation, investors are also reminded of the market's seasonal history. It is no secret that the September-October period has often brought declines. For now, however, it may be most important to "trade what you see, not what you believe", in the words of the great trader, Mark Douglas. Give the market and the best acting stocks the benefit of the doubt until you see a reason to do otherwise by either a technical failure or violation of sound selling rules. In each specific case with individual issues, as always, we recommend the use of a strict selling discipline to protect yourself from losses greater than
7-8%.
|
K-Swiss,
Inc.
by
Mark Van Kampen |
www.kswiss.com
|
|
Ticker Symbol:
KSWS (Nasdaq) |
Industry Group:
Apparel - Shoes Rel Mfg |
Shares
Outstanding:
17.6 Million |
|
Price:
$39.74 (at close 08/29/03) |
Day's Volume: 219,066
(at close 08/31/03) |
Shares In Float:
12.1 Million |
|
52 Wk High:
$39.89 |
50-Day Avg Vol:
218,300 |
Up/Down Vol Ratio:
0.9 |
|
Pivot Point:
$39.69
(7/15/03 high plus .10) |
Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price:
$41.57 |

Financials,
Historical Prices,
Industry,
Insider,
Messages,
News
Options,
Profile,
Reports,
Research,
SEC Filings
Profile: K-Swiss Inc. designs, develops and markets athletic
footwear for sports, fitness and casual wear under the
K-Swiss brand. The Company also designs and
manufactures footwear under the Royal Elastics and
National Geographic brands. KSWS reported record
earnings and revenue on July 29th.
What to
Look For and Look Out For:
Look for support at the upward trend line as the first
line of defense, with the 50-day moving average near
$37 as yet another important support point of
reference. Taken in the context of a quiet August,
and going into a holiday weekend, Friday’s 218,000
shares against August’s 108,000 daily average was
stronger than it might at first appear. Watch the
overall action in the retail sector for continued
confirmation. A more significant increase in volume
behind any further price progress would be another
sign of meaningful institutional demand.
Technical Analysis:
K-Swiss
closed at a new high on Friday 8/29, clearing a 7-week
base with what could be called a short 3-day handle.
This is not uncommon with market leaders, but after a
fall back in a slightly downward sloping handle on
light volume there is often a stronger case for a
longer upward trend with lower risk. KSWS is sitting
near its pivot point, but is not displaying the volume
action usually associated with a classic breakout.
Ideally, a stock will break out with volume 50% above
its daily average. Using its typical 50-day
average, Friday’s volume was barely above the mean.
|
|
Metrologic Instruments
by
Mark Van Kampen |
www.metrologic.com |
|
Ticker Symbol:
MTLG (Nasdaq) |
Industry Group:
Computer Peripherals |
Shares
Outstanding:
8.5 Million |
|
Price:
$40.25 (at close 08/31/03) |
Day's Volume: 419,508
(at close 08/31/03) |
Shares In Float:
3.3 Million |
|
52 Wk High:
$(8/31/03) |
50-Day Avg Vol: 146,900 |
Up/Down Vol Ratio: 1.6 |
|
Pivot Point:
$39.79
(7/09/03 high plus .10) |
Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price:
$41.78 |

Financials,
Historical Prices,
Industry,
Insider,
Messages
News,
Profile,
Reports,
Research,
SEC Filings
Profile: Metrologic Instruments Inc. designs, manufactures and markets bar code scanning and high-speed automated data capture solutions using laser, holographic and vision-based technologies. MTLG declared a 3:2 stock split effective July 7th, 2003. It proposed a public offering of additional shares on 8/1/03. On Monday, August 25th, the company raised both earnings and revenue guidance for third quarter and for the year 2003.
What to
Look For and Look Out For:
Until the stock offering is completed and the market
has time to digest those additional shares, MTLG may
have a harder time making much progress. It has been
forming a new base since July 9th after a
very strong run up that began in November ‘02. While
earnings have been strong, expectations are equally
high. MTLG has not had consecutive down days on big
volume since mid-June, and that kind of price-volume
behavior would be cause for reconsidering. It is
important to have strict selling discipline, as one
should realize that after having rising four-fold
since April, in this kind of scenario there is always
the possibility of a sharp pullback. Where it
previously faced resistance near $39 and was turned
back, that is now a somewhat important chart area that
will need to serve as support.
Technical Analysis:
MTLG tested and held it’s 50-day moving average four
times in mid-August, and is now nearly $11 above that
point. While the last two trading days have been
high-volume breakout sessions, there has been a sharp
sell off in the final hour on both days that caused it
to close well off its intra-day highs. This action
hints that there are still a number of willing sellers
who may be losing patience.
|
|
Coach, Inc.
by
Tate Dwinnell |
coach.com |
|
Ticker Symbol:
COH (Nasdaq) |
Industry Group:
Retail – Clothing/Shoe |
Shares
Outstanding:
90.8 Million |
|
Price:
$58.04 (at close 08/29/03) |
Day's Volume: 501,500
(at close 08/29/03) |
Shares In Float:
88.1 Million |
|
52 Wk High:
$58.17 |
50-Day Avg Vol:
776,000 |
Up/Down Vol Ratio:
.9 |
|
Pivot Point:
$57.50
(8/21/03
high plus .10) |
Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price:
$60.38 |

Financials,
Historical Prices,
Industry,
Insider,
Messages,
News
Options,
Profile,
Reports,
Research,
SEC Filings
Profile:
Coach
is a designer,
producer and marketer of modern American classic
accessories and a leader in the high end retail
industry. With an average quarterly sales increase of
33% over the year ago period in the last 4 quarters
and an average quarterly earnings increase of 75% over
the year ago period in the last 4 quarters, it
is a
company with superior fundamentals. In addition,
Coach is part of a rapidly rising industry group that
is now in the top 10% of all 197 industry
groups listed in IBD.
Considering that the economy is improving and the
holiday season is just around the corner, this is a
stock that may continue to do very well.
What to
Look For and Look Out For:
This is
a stock that on Friday August 29th, 2003 surpassed its
resistance area of around $57 (green
line).
However, it didn’t do so with heavy volume. In the
next few days look for a surge in volume as the stock
rises, which would indicate the institutions are
jumping aboard and signal further gains for the stock.
Consider taking half of your position now and taking
the other half on a surge in volume. However, avoid
buying above the $60.38 max buy point to minimize risk
of being stopped out at an 8% loss. As always, a
breach of the 50-day moving average (blue
line) with heavy volume would indicate
weakness and be a likely sell signal for the stock. Another
thing to keep an eye on is the upcoming 2-for-1 split
on October 2nd. The stock last split 14
months ago, and it could run into trouble as the float
supply will double. Let the charts tell you if you
should be selling!
Technical Analysis:
This is
a stock that appears to have made its first big move
on April 22nd with a breakaway gap on heavy
volume (always a very bullish move). From there it
has risen over 40%, where it has been consolidating for the
past 7 weeks, providing an excellent entry point for
the stock.
|
|
Ventana
Medical Systems, Inc.
by Tate Dwinnell
|
ventanamed.com
|
|
Ticker
Symbol:
VMSI (Nasdaq)
|
Industry
Group:
Medical- Systems/Equip
|
Shares
Outstanding:
16.4 Million
|
|
Price:
$40.44 (at close 08/29/03)
|
Day's
Volume: 51,000
(at close 08/29/03)
|
Shares
In Float:
11.2 Million
|
|
52
Wk High: $40.58
|
50-Day
Avg Vol: 94,400
|
Up/Down
Vol Ratio: 1.2
|
|
Pivot
Point:
$38.45
(7/29/03 high plus .10)
|
Pivot
Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $40.37
|

Financials,
Historical Prices,
Industry,
Insider,
Messages,
News
Options,
Profile,
Reports,
Research,
SEC Filings
Profile: Ventana
Medical Systems, Inc. is the leading global supplier
of automated instrument reagent systems to histology
laboratories. They
develop, manufacture and market instruments and
consumables that automate tissue preparation and slide
staining in anatomical pathology and drug discovery
laboratories.
Ventana's clinical systems are important tools
used in the diagnosis and treatment of cancer and
infectious diseases. Ventana's drug discovery systems
are used to accelerate the discovery of new drug
targets and evaluate the safety of new drug compounds.
What to Look For and Look Out For:
On Friday, VMSI moved past the "max buy point"
for this stock by $0.07.
With a very small float, this is a stock that
could move and move fast.
Keep in mind that stocks with a small float could drop as fast as they
rise, so it is important to minimize risk by not
chasing a stock too far past the ideal buy point.
Look for the stock to enter its buy range
again before purchasing, as many stocks take a
rest and/or retest prior resistance (new support) after the initial breakout before resuming their
advance. As
always, a breach of the 50-day moving average (blue line)
with heavy volume would be cause for concern.
Technical
Analysis: VMSI is a stock that appears to have formed a long two-year base
with a high handle.
On August 27th it broke through its pivot of $38.45 (green line) on decent volume, and it
has
continued upward and nudged just past the maximum buy point.
|
Each month the above section is
compiled by several expert contributors who
hand pick these ideas. In the issue we have insight
from some the following experienced professionals:
Kenneth
J. Gruneisen - A
Registered Investment Advisor & Registered
Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group
(Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers
personalized assistance.
(954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399 or email
kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com |
Mark
Van Kampen
- an independent investment analyst with more than 20 years of experience.
mvankampen@aol.com |
Tate Dwinnell
- Private Investor. Holds a
Western Washington University degree focused in
Mathematics and Economics and a Member American
Association of Individual Investors
|
John
Derway -
Vice President,
Coburn & Meredith.
A Stockbroker and
Registered Investment Advisor for 25 years.
150 Trumbull Street,
Hartford, CT 06103 1-800-825-2244 ext.334
jderway@coburnfinancial.com |
Dee Hendon
-
Professional technical market analyst. Years
of experience in investing and using CANSLIM. |
|
|
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