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"A Vital Source for the CANSLIM Investor" 

Thursday, Sept 30th, 2004 | 11:54 PM
October
2004
Volume 7, Issue 10
 

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  OCTOBER      2004    CONTENTS
 
CURRENT    MARKET    CONDITIONS
A overview of the current market conditions - the important "M" in CANSLIM.

Small-Cap & Mid-Cap Stock Indexes Meeting Healthy Market Definition
The Nasdaq Composite managed to stay above its 50-day moving average line on the most recent dip, but it is still trading below its 200-day moving average. What is a bit more troubling is that the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite are all trading under their longer-term 200-day moving average lines. Not long ago the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 Index had managed to rally above their respective 200 DMAs and were looking better, however they are lingering just a bit below those important long-term averages right now. The reason that this is important is because one of O'Neil's criteria for a healthy market environment is that he suggests two of those three major indices need to be trading above their rising 200-day moving average lines.

The Nasdaq Composite's 200-day line has been rolling over and sloping downward since late-July. The Dow and S&P 500 both have 200 DMAs that are still on the rise, and a small improvement could help them meet that important guideline and trigger additional upside momentum. So, there are some reasons to remain a bit tentative about your buying efforts while the market lingers in its present stance, yet there are also some encouraging signs.

CANSLIM fans are not interested in goliath companies like those that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And while the blue chip indices are not exactly meeting O’Neil’s “healthy market” definition, the smaller and mid-sized stock indexes are. The Russell 2000 Index climbed back above its rising 200 DMA on Wednesday September 29th. The S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is also above its rising 200 DMA now. And the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index is in the greatest shape of them all, above its rising 50 & 200 DMAs and now sitting less than 2% off its all-time high.

There are other indications that many growth stocks are acting better. Right now 229 high-ranked stocks on CANSLIM.net’s Leaders List are presently trading at or within 5% of their 52-week highs. Watchful investors with discipline should be watching the new highs list regularly at this time, and they should be poised to strike quickly when the most ideal candidates emerge from appropriate bases.

- Kenneth J. Gruneisen

 
 MARKETS    LEADING    GROUPS
You stack the odds of making a winning trade in your favor by choosing a leading company in a leading industry group, so when buying stocks be sure to choose one with plenty of company, that is a stock trading among a group of several strong-performing peers!  Familiarize yourself with the list of the top performing industry groups and leading stocks listed below.  These symbols and related companies ARE NOT intended to be construed as a list of timely and proper CANSLIM-based choices.*   These pace-setters in each of the currently top-ranked groups listed may not presently fit within the guidelines we suggest adhering to.  The point is that it is always wise to choose leaders in the same or a very similar business to that of the strongest stocks in the market.  Find companies that resemble other strong stocks' leadership characteristics.  

CANSLIM.net's most timely buy candidates are analyzed by our experts in great detail in the "Stocks to Watch in This New Market "section.

RANK

GROUP NAME

GROUP LEADERS
SYMBOL ,% FROM 52WK HIGH,
# OF DAYS MAKING NEW HIGHS (Sept)
1 ENERGY  PXP, 0.72%, 8  |  PDS, -0.26%, 7  |  PETD, -0.27%, 7  |  MUR, -0.44%, 9  |  OXY, -0.94%, 8  |  WFT, -1.03%, 9  |  BR, -1.07%, 7  |  BHI, -1.26%, 8  |  CVX, -1.56%, 10  |  BJS, -1.63%, 7  |  APA, -1.75%, 7  |  CDIS, -1.79%, 7  |  SWN, -2.01%, 10  |  SII, -2.08%, 8  |  WLL, -2.56%, 8  |  HYDL, -2.74%, 10  |  BRY, -4.45%, 9
2 TRANSPORTATION  LSTR, 0.48%, 9  |  GMR, -2.41%, 9  |  FDX, -3.61%, 8 | NSC, 0.20%   | OMM, 0.00%   | SNSA, -0.44%   | GBX, -0.50%   | EAGL, -0.98%  
3 METALS & MINING  STLD, 0.65%, 9  |  CCJ, -1.36%, 11 | CMC, 1.33%   | IPS, 1.26%   | NX, 0.43%   | CRS, 0.15%   | PCU, 0.02%  
4 FINANCIAL SERVICES  CNS, -6.20%, 8  |  FMD, -9.02%, 7 | SJT, -0.97%   | BNN, -2.58%   | BLK, -3.30%   | IFIN, -7.71%   | WRLD, -9.71%  
5 COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES  ADSK, -1.68%, 10 | CSGP, 1.72%   JUPM, 0.62%   | SRX, -1.51%   | ADBE, -2.48%   | MCRS, -3.71%  
6 CONSUMER DURABLES  HAR, -0.11%, 11 | FOSL, 0.32%   | LEG, -2.46%   | RCRC, -8.10%   | STLY, -9.05%  
7 BANKING  CORS, -6.65%, 7 | BOH, -1.71%   | CATY, -1.95%   | WTFC, -1.95%   | OZRK, -2.14%   | RGF, -2.15%  
8 CHEMICALS  IGL, -2.30%, 8 | SYT, 0.74%   GGC, -1.11%   | FMC, -1.18%   | POL, -1.70%   | BRC, -2.91%  
9 HEALTH SERVICES  UNH, -1.35%, 9 | SIE, 0.48%   COO, -0.17%   AMMD, -0.30%   | HAE, -0.33%   CVH, -1.71%  

Notes:

  • This is a list of the strongest groups based on the total number of new highs achieved in the group. For example, 1 stock making 10 new highs is the same as 10 stocks making 1 new high.
  • If there are less than four stocks in the list of stocks making new highs then the top five stocks in that group will be added to the list.
  • Any stock that is more than 20% off its 52-week high will be eliminated from the list regardless of any other characteristics.
  • Links above (in 3rd column) refer to the original write-ups on previously featured stocks.

- CANSLIM.net News Staff

 
INVESTING   FOR    THE   NEW  MILLENNIUM
Common Questions and Frustrations Heard on the Street
In the past two weeks we made three CANSLIM.net presentations – audiences included the West Coast and Central Florida chapter members of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), and The Investor Education Network’s wonderful South Florida group. The response to these presentations was overwhelmingly positive. Helping investors be more successful is what we love doing, so we are willing to break from our normal routines and take time to put together these events. We hope to get out and do more of these presentations in the future. If you know of an educational investment group or club that might appreciate having us come out please let us know. We appreciate the opportunity to speak.

One thing that helped make these Florida events successful and enjoyable was the fact we had electricity – something that Floridians can’t take for granted lately! While enduring multiple hurricanes, the outpouring of friendly and encouraging remarks from many CANSLIM.net fans has been a definite lift to our organization’s spirits. I thoroughly appreciate the sincere thanks and praise that many folks have passed along concerning the quality of the analytical work we do. Thank you!

I am proud of the great team of people we have working here. I made the rounds after an associate approached me requesting a contribution to the Florida Jaycees Disaster Relief Fund. Every person here stepped up and made a meaningful donation (which they agreed to have deducted from their paychecks). When I handed the combined check to my friend from the Jaycees it definitely raised his eyebrows, and he thanked us for our generosity. This, and prior donations to the American Red Cross, are just a couple of examples that clearly demonstrate the willingness we have to assist those who are in need of help.

"I am proud of the great team of people we have working here"

Speaking of help, do-it-yourself minded investors don’t often think they need the kind of help offered by a full-service broker like me. They might be surprised at how reasonable my full-service fees are and also impressed by the performance. I admire those who want to do things on their own. Those who are willing to go out and invest but who then complain about their results without being willing to invest the time needed to read the book amaze me. Questions I hear frequently asked reveal often that people have not yet read the book. The letter-by-letter CANSLIM summary in the presentation I make stays the same, and there is nothing that I cover that isn’t covered better by reading “How to Make Money in Stocks” by William J. O’Neil.

When speaking to groups, I find that I am continually asked many of the same questions: Does CANSLIM still work today, now that so many people already knows its secrets?; CANSLIM only works well in an up market, so in a down market do you suggest shorting stocks?; Instead of the buying CANSLIM stocks, can’t you buy options?; How do you set target prices?; When do you sell?; Do you help people manage their brokerage accounts? Answers: Yes; No; I don’t; I don’t; I sell once I see more than one technical indication of deterioration; Yes, that is exactly what I do for a living each day.

My job as your coach is to help you to realize above-average returns on your investment portfolio. Many investors express frustration over the results they are getting by doing the portfolio managing themselves. They also grow tired of the absolute overload of market-related information that is available. The important point to focus on is quality, not quantity. Who needs 150 breakouts per day? When you see 150 breakouts in one day that is when you need help, narrowing the list down to a few of the very best candidates. When there are not even 10 new breakouts it is no problem spotting them. However, that latter case is when you need someone to remind you that there is not enough leadership to sustain a meaningful advance and the market environment is just not right.

Kenneth J. Gruneisen - A Registered Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group (Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers personalized assistance. Investors with a significant financial interest in equities may inquire about opening an account by calling the office locally at (954) 785-1990 or 1-888-237-8399 or emailing to kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com  Further information is always available upon request. Contact us if you know anyone that may have an interest in receiving this or any of our other reports.

Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm.

 
STOCKS    TO WATCH   IN   THIS NEW    MARKET
Our staff of experts researches and then compiles a list of selected stocks which warrant further investigation by investors. These stocks show strong potential for a share price breakout based on the CANSLIM investment methodology. These are not necessarily buy recommendations. If anytime throughout the month our contributors find a particular stock that has similar characteristics as the ideas featured below we will produce one of our CANSLIM.net Stock Bulletins or a CANSLIM.net Stock Alert Report. These reports will be emailed as a direct link to all subscribers.
 
Armor Holdings, Inc

- Kenneth J. Gruneisen

Ticker Symbol: AH (NYSE) Industry Group: Commercial Services Security/Safety Shares Outstanding: 32.8 Million
Price: $41.61 (09/30/04 close) Day's Volume: 797,400 (09/30/04 close) Shares in Float: 28.5 Million
52 Week High: $40.28 50-Day Average Volume: 601,000 Up/Down Volume Ratio: 1.7
Pivot Point: $40.28 (08/03/04 high plus $0.10) Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $42.29 Web Address: www.armorholdings.com


Financials | StockTalk | News | Chart | SEC | Zacks Reports

Armor Holdings - Quarterly Comparisons Versus The Year Earlier
Quarter: 09/30/03  12/31/03  03/31/04  06/30/04 
Earnings: 0.22 vs 0.24 -8% 0.34 vs 0.25 +36% 0.43 vs 0.19 +126% 0.81 vs 0.21 +286%
Sales ($Mil): 90.9 vs 80.6 +13% 112.2 vs 83.3 +35% 161.6 vs 80.5 +101% 223.7 vs 81.7 +174%

Profile: Armor Holdings, Inc. is a manufacturer and provider of specialized security products, training and support services related to these products, vehicle armor systems, military helicopter seating systems, aircraft and land vehicle armor systems, protective equipment for military personnel and other technologies used to protect humans in a variety of life-threatening or catastrophic situations. The Company's products and systems are used domestically and internationally by military, law enforcement, security and corrections personnel, as well as governmental agencies, multinational corporations and individuals.  A June 9, 2004 stock offering increased its shares outstanding to 32.8 million, still a reasonably small supply.  Quality mutual fund ownership in AH has risen from 90, 116, to 136 over Dec '03, Mar '04 and Jun '04.  It maintains very high ranks from IBD, and fundamentals have turned up.  Earnings per share increases in the two most recent financial reports were up over the year earlier by +126%, +286% in Mar ’04 and Jun ‘04 respectively while sales revenues accelerated. Insiders hold 13% of shares outstanding, keeping them motivated to look after shareholder value. There has still been a good amount of confirming strength from other high-ranked leaders in the Commercial Services - Security/Safety group including TASR, but IBD's Industry Group rank has admittedly fallen to a mediocre level.  

What to Look For and Look Out For:  This stock appears poised to continue advancing as the price is already clear of resistance caused by overhead supply.  If you missed an early entry, the conservative guideline of up to 5% above the pivot provides for purchases up to a maximum price of $42.29.  Support should be found in the range of prior highs it recently cleared and above the upward trend line drawn on the accompanying graph.  Deterioration on high volume below those support points would be cause for concern as it would slip into its prior base.  Losses of more than 8% should not be tolerated.

Technical Analysis: AH broke out on Sep 24, 2004, and it is still within a reasonable buy point under the guidelines.  The stock is trading above its pivot point with only one  above average volume down day of significance since its 5/27 - 6/28 pullback (a time when the additional stock offering hindered its progress).  As the volume on the recent breakout was triple the average, the stock seems poised for higher prices. The RS line hit a new high previous to the stock hitting a new high, also a good confirming sign it is a strong leader.


First Horizon Pharmaceutical Corp

- Kenneth J. Gruneisen

Ticker Symbol:FHRX (Nasdaq) Industry Group:  Medical-Ethical Drugs Shares Outstanding: 36.0 Million
Price: $20.01 (09/30/04 close) Day's Volume: 1,740,500 (at close 09/30/04) Shares in Float:  26.3 Million
52 Week High: $20.20 (09/30/04) 50-Day Average Volume: 409,900 Up/Down Volume Ratio: 1.9
Pivot Point:  $20.08 (06/24/04 high plus .10) Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: 21.08 Web Address: www.horizonpharm.com


Financials | StockTalk | News | Chart | SEC | Zacks Reports

First Horizon - Quarterly Comparisons Versus The Year Earlier
Quarter: 09/30/03  12/31/03  03/31/04  06/30/04 
Earnings: 0.10 vs 0.07 +43% 0.17 vs 0.13 +31% 0.14 vs -0.25  N/A 0.15 vs -0.18  N/A
Sales ($Mil): 24.7 vs 27.1 -9% 37.1 vs 35.0 +6% 32.0 vs 12.5 +156% 36.0 vs 21.0 +72%

Profile: First Horizon Pharmaceutical Corporation, is a specialty pharmaceutical company that markets and sells brand name prescription products. The Company markets and sells 14 products, six of which are actively promoted and accounted for approximately 92.7% of its total sales in 2003. Its key products are Sular, Nitrolingual, the Prenate line, the Tanafed line, the Robinul line and Ponstel. Most of these products treat recurring or chronic conditions or disorders, which results in repeated use over an extended period of time. They focus on two therapeutic categories, cardiology and women's health/pediatric. First Horizon markets its products to high-prescribing primary care physicians, cardiologists, obstetricians, gynecologists and pediatricians.  Institutional accumulation is evident as 53, 72, and 93 quality mutual funds held an interest in Dec '03, Mar '04 and Jun '04 respectively.  There are other high-ranked leaders in the Medical-Ethical Drugs group acting well including CNCT and BCII, but IBD's Industry Group rank is admittedly a bit mediocre.  

What to Look For and Look Out For:  With the latest blast of volume FHRX appears on a course for higher ground.  Any high volume price deterioration beyond recent lows in the $18.50 range would be cause for concern.  A violation of support at its 50 DMA would be a more serious technical sell signal.  It has historic 2001 & 2002 highs in the $32-33 range which means there could still be some remaining resistance to chew through.  Even though the base now looks substantial enough and more than 1-1/2 years have passed, the fact that it traded in the $2 range for a brief time in March 2003 gives everyone a reason to realize that it has come a long way, thus a 7-8% stop loss and strict sell discipline are quite crucial.  

Technical Analysis:  In mid-September there were a number of high volume up days that allowed it work up toward prior chart highs, clearing almost all chart resistance.  Then there was a tightening up of the pattern as volume dried up.  On September 30th it blasted to new 52-week highs on volume four times its average daily total. 


Each month our stock picks are compiled by several expert contributors who hand-pick these ideas:
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - A Registered Investment Advisor & Registered Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group (Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers personalized assistance.  
 (954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399 or email kgruneisen@ sourcegrp.com
Mark Van Kampenan independent investment analyst with more than 20 years of experience. mvankampen @aol.com Dee Hendon - 24 years of investing and financial services experience as a financial services professional most recently as a broker and technical market analyst and has been an ardent fan William O’Neill and the CANSLIM discipline for years. Richard Miller, Ph. D - Statistics professional and serious trader with years of technical analysis-based trading. He currently manages six different portfolios. He maintains his own of stock analysis website. To learn more visit TripleScreenMethod.com or email him directly at rwmill@yahoo.com
 
MID-DAY BREAKOUTS REPORT MONTHLY REVIEW      
To help demonstrate the value of our daily CANSLIM.net Mid-Day BreakOuts Report and other proprietary reports included with your paid CANSLIM.net StockNews Membership we have added this new section. We screened all of the stocks that appeared on the Mid-Day BreakOuts Report in the month of September for all of the stocks we previously highlighted in yellow (Y="noteworthy"), green (G=previously noteworthy), or blue (B="Featured Stocks").   We include notes and comments about previous notes which were provided. These are NOT necessarily ideal buy candidates right now.
 
Symbol/Company Name/Industry Group Last Date
High-
lighted
Price
High-
Lighted
% Gain / Loss Since Feat. Resources Summary Notes
URBN - NASDAQ
Urban Outfitters Inc
RETAIL - Apparel Stores
$34.40 4/3/2029 $23.33 +47.45% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Originally made noteworthy in the mid-day breakouts report 03/29/04 at $23.33. Continued to find support near 50 DMA followed by 5/27's BV BO that started a good uptrend running the price up to near $35.
VLO - NYSE
Valero Energy Corp
ENERGY - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$80.21 4/4/2028 $64.09 +25.15% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports First marked noteworthy on 04/28/04 at $64.09 as price was breaking out on biggest volume day ever. Consolidated for several weeks before moving higher in the end of June. Reached a high of $78 before breaking below 50 DMA and finding support near $63 before again starting a steep uptrend. 
PCU - NYSE
Southern Peru Copper
METALS & MINING - Gold
$51.66 9/28/2004 $50.17 +2.97% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Just marked on 09/28 with "L in good group. Highly ranked by IBD. Impressive "C" history. Chart resembles a bullish cup without a handle. Broke new high Thursday with a decent gain and volume conviction.
UNT - NYSE
Unit Corp
ENERGY - Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
$35.08 9/21/2004 $34.16 +2.69% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Just marked noteworthy on 9/21at $34.16 as price broke out then closed at a new high. Has continued moving up just past $35 and is holding up well.  
CAI - NYSE
C A C I Intl Cl A
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Technical Services
$52.78 9/21/2004 $51.92 +1.66% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Just marked noteworthy on 9/22 with a BV BO and has been consolidating on overall lighter volume since.
ASTE - NASDAQ
Astec Industries Inc
MANUFACTURING - Farm & Construction Machinery
$19.12 9/20/2004 $19.60 -2.45% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Good group. Not highly ranked yet recent turnaround in sales and earnings looks impressive. Cup with handle like pattern. Reversed 9/21 following BV BO day, yet held above support and it is again moving up on above average volume.
INSP - NASDAQ
Infospace Inc
INTERNET - Internet Information Providers
$47.39 9/20/2004 $46.48 +1.96% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports First marked noteworthy on 9/20 with "L in very good group. Impressive move today. Improving A."
LIFE - NASDAQ
Lifeline Systems Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Processing Systems & Products
$24.42 9/20/2004 $24.50 -0.33% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Marked noteworthy 9/20.  Finished today with a new high close on above average volume. Looks good.
PDS - NYSE
Precision Drilling Corp
ENERGY - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
$57.50 9/17/2004 $53.02 +8.45% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Has produced good gains since highlighted. Now consolidating a bit.
SII - NYSE
Smith International
ENERGY - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
$60.73 9/15/2004 $59.82 +1.52% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Recently marked noteworthy. Continues in uptrend since.
AMWD - NASDAQ
American Woodmark Corp
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION - Lumber, Wood Production
$37.03 9/13/2004 $35.55 +4.16% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports First marked noteworthy with a BV BO. Produced gains now consolidating on overall lighter volume. 2/1 split 9/27/04.
ACAP - NASDAQ
American Physicians Cap
INSURANCE - Property & Casualty Insurance
$30.62 9/7/2004 $29.45 +3.97% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports First marked noteworthy with a pivot point of $28.52 and maximum buy price of $29.95. Produced good gains then consolidated though today had some decent price progress on above average volume.
BDK - NYSE
Black & Decker Corp
MANUFACTURING - Small Tools & Accessories
$77.44 9/7/2004 $74.29 +4.24% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Highlighted on BV BO based a while then until it recently started a move to new highs.  Ends month with a new high close.
MBT - NYSE
Mobile Telesystems Adr
TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Wireless Communications
$144.99 9/7/2004 $143.75 +0.86% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Just featured as chart was forming a cup with handle pattern.
STLD - NASDAQ
Steel Dynamics Inc
METALS & MINING - Steel & Iron
$38.62 9/7/2004 $33.96 +13.72% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Originally marked noteworthy on 9/7 with "L in pretty good group. Nice BV BO today. Highly ranked by IBD" as price was breaking out of a decent base. Closed at a new high today, and impressive last "C".
RGF - NYSE
R & G Financial Corp
BANKING - Foreign Regional Banks
$38.65 9/7/2004 $37.22 +3.84% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Produced gains since highlighted, now consolidating.
BNN - NYSE
Brascan Corporation Cl A
FINANCIAL SERVICES - Asset Management
$30.20 9/2/2004 $29.10 +3.78% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Marked noteworthy with "L in Decent group. Nice last few "C"s. Decent base. Trades just 70,300 shares a day on average." as price was breaking out of 10 week base. Continues uptrend.
CATY - NASDAQ
Cathay General Bancorp
BANKING - Regional - Pacific Banks
$37.19 9/2/2004 $35.95 +3.45% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Nice price progress today with volume conviction.  2/1 split 9/29/04
COO - NYSE
Cooper Companies Inc
HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Instruments & Supplies
$68.55 9/1/2004 $62.75 +9.24% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Produced good gains since highlighted and remains in good uptrend.
INFY - NASDAQ
Infosys Technologies Ads
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Technical & System Software
$56.60 9/1/2004 $53.99 +4.83% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Produced good gains since highlighted then consolidated now is moving upward.
IGL - NYSE
I M C Global Inc
CHEMICALS - Agricultural Chemicals
$17.39 8/31/2004 $15.52 +12.05% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Marked noteworthy on BV BO on 8/31, continues good uptrend since.
FAST - NASDAQ
Fastenal Co
RETAIL - Home Improvement Stores
$57.60 8/31/2004 $62.78 -8.25% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Put in slight gains then quickly gapped down on 9/07/04.  Fell under 50 DMA on 9/09/04 and CANSLIM.net daily coverage in "Featured Stock Update" table was be suspended.
CMN - NYSE
Cantel Medical Corp
HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Instruments & Supplies
$24.00 8/31/2004 $26.48 -9.37% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Featured in the Sept CANSLIM.net News and price has dropped since. CANSLIM.net daily coverage was suspended 9/13/04.  Had not broken above pivot point since featured so should have never been purchased under the guidelines.
SYT - NYSE
Syngenta Ag Adr
CHEMICALS - Agricultural Chemicals
$19.09 8/31/2004 $18.05 +5.76% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Price dipped since highlighted yet remained above support. Ends month with another gap open and new high close.
HDWR - NASDAQ
Headwaters Inc
METALS & MINING - Industrial Metals & Minerals
$30.86 8/30/2004 $29.97 +2.97% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Featured in the Sept CANSLIM.net News. Several days later got hit with selling. Now sits with little resistance remaining.
MLI - NYSE
Mueller Industries Inc
MANUFACTURING - Metal Fabrication
$42.95 8/24/2004 $38.89 +10.44% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Huge gap open since first highlighted. Consolidated and just ended month with a new high close.
OXY - NYSE
Occidental Petroleum
ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas
$55.93 8/24/2004 $49.76 +12.40% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Solid uptrend since highlighted.
JUPM - NASDAQ
Jupitermedia Corp
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Information & Delivery Service
$17.80 8/22/2004 $14.65 +21.50% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports First highlighted in a special report in 8/22. Dipped to 50 DMA since and now ended the month at a new high close on almost 3 times normal volume.
EXBD - NASDAQ
Corporate Executive Brd
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Business/Management Services
$61.24 8/22/2004 $60.06 +1.96% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Featured in a special report on 8/22. Moved sideways since until BV BO on (9/24) and now sits with a new high close. 
FOSL - NASDAQ
Fossil Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES - Recreational Goods, Other
$30.94 8/22/2004 $29.10 +6.32% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Featured in a special report on 8/22. Moved sideways since until BV BO on (9/24) and now sits with a new high close.
COBZ - NASDAQ
Cobiz Inc
BANKING - Regional - Southwest Banks
$16.53 8/22/2004 $14.29 +15.68% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports BV BO the following day since being highlighted in a special report on 8/22 followed by a solid uptrend and now is consolidating.
CWTR - NASDAQ
Coldwater Creek Inc
RETAIL - Catalog & Mail Order Houses
$20.87 8/22/2004 $19.47 +7.19% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Featured in a special report on 8/22. Steady uptrend until recent pullback above support.
CCJ - NYSE
Cameco Corp
METALS & MINING - Industrial Metals & Minerals
$79.24 8/17/2004 $63.08 +25.62% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Marked noteworthy on a BV BO on 8/17 has maintained a steep uptrend since. Nice example.
GGC - NYSE
Georgia Gulf Corp
CHEMICALS - Synthetics
$44.59 8/16/2004 $36.15 +23.35% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Slight gain after first featured, then consolidated building a base before blasting too new highs on very heavy volume.
JOYG - NASDAQ
Joy Global Inc
MANUFACTURING - Farm & Construction Machinery
$34.38 8/3/2004 $31.09 +10.58% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Immediately broke down after highlighted yet quickly recovered, based, then got in an uptrend and ended month with a new high close.
AMMD - NASDAQ
American Med Systms Hldg
HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Appliances & Equipment
$36.27 8/1/2004 $31.82 +13.98% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Highlighted in the Aug CANSLIM.net News. Immediately broke below 50 DMA but held at chart support, then recovered and now sits at a new high close.
BMHC - NASDAQ
Building Materials Hldg
RETAIL - Home Improvement Stores
$27.52 7/29/2004 $19.85 +38.64% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Has produced good gains since featured and remains in good uptrend and now sits near all time highs.
OMM - NYSE
O M I Corp
TRANSPORTATION - Shipping
$16.02 7/28/2004 $12.00 +33.50% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Initially produced slight gains since highlighted then pulled back to 50 DMA before advancing to end month with a new high close.
ISRG - NASDAQ
Intuitive Surgical Inc
HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Appliances & Equipment
$24.75 7/27/2004 $20.68 +19.68% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Highlighted on BV BO on 7/27 and kept in uptrend until recently. Now sits above 50 DMA.
TK - NYSE
Teekay Shipping Co
TRANSPORTATION - Shipping
$43.09 6/21/2004 $37.14 +16.02% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports First highlighted on gap open and BV BO on 6/21. Spent some time just under 50 DMA but held at chart support near $34-35. Now sits 29 cents off a new high close.  
UIC - NYSE
United Industrial Corp
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE - Aerospace/Defense Products & S
$32.89 6/21/2004 $23.25 +41.46% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports First based for some time since highlighted then broke out on above average volume. Dipped to 50 DMA before reversing and sprinting up.
UPL - AMEX
Ultra Petroleum Corp
ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas
$49.05 6/16/2004 $34.90 +40.54% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Good several week uptrend since highlighted until a break just under 50 DMA.  Found support right near April highs and recovered impressively.  Now sits just off new highs. 
SWN - NYSE
Southwestern Energy Co
ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas
$41.99 6/16/2004 $27.88 +50.61% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports First highlighted on BV BO on 6/16 at $27.88, based then moved up and ends month just off of all time highs near $42.  Nice example.
AH - NYSE
Armor Holdings Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Security & Protection Services
$41.61 6/1/2004 $37.40 +11.26% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Immediately broke down after highlighted as company announced an additional stock offering that hindered price progress. Noted BV BO on 9/24.  Ends month with a new high close.
BRY - NYSE
Berry Petroleum Co Cl A
ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas
$36.73 5/5/2004 $28.62 +28.34% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Based for several months since highlighted until recently moved up.
FSH - NYSE
Fisher Scientific Intl
WHOLESALE - Electronics Wholesale
$58.33 5/2/2004 $58.55 -0.38% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Never really broke out since featured.  Building a great flat base now.  Good ranks from IBD.
CRDN - NASDAQ
Ceradyne Inc
MANUFACTURING - Industrial Equipment & Compone
$43.91 4/27/2004 $35.53 +23.59% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Broke down immediately after highlighted.  Choppy action included a dip under 50 DMA in August.  Acting well since 8/20 gap up BV BO.  Ends month with a new high close.
VIP - NYSE
Vimpel Communications
TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Wireless Communications
$108.80 3/1/2004 $37.36 +191.22% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Featured in the March '03 issue of CANSLIM.net News at $37.36. Closed month equaling its best ever closing high of $108.80.
DECK - NASDAQ
Deckers Outdoor Corp
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES - Textile - Apparel Footwear & A
$34.00 2/26/2004 $26.44 +28.59% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports First highlighted on BV BO on 2/26/04 found support near 50 DMA. Public offering on 5/13 hindered price progress for a while. Great BV BO on 9/07/04. Found support at 50 DMA then had a very impressive day today.
PETD - NASDAQ
Petroleum Dev Corp
ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas
$43.82 2/25/2004 $26.60 +64.74% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports First highlighted on 2/25 with a BV BO. Broke under 50 DMA and proceeded to build a 7-month base before another BV BO on 9/02/04.  Ends month with a new high close.
HANS - NASDAQ
Hansen Natural Corp
FOOD & BEVERAGE - Beverages - Soft Drinks
$24.12 2/1/2004 $9.00 +168.00% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Has produced a great gain since featured.  Basing above 50 DMA on light volume now.
RIMM - NASDAQ
Research In Motion Ltd
TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Diversified Communication Serv
$76.34 12/1/2003 $45.69 +67.08% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Huge gaps up on 12/23/03,  5/19/04 and 6/30/04 since featured.  Impressive gain since featured.
PKZ - NYSE
Petrokazakhstan Inc Cl A
ENERGY - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
$34.27 4/3/2001 $26.76 +28.06% Financials, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports Initially did not work out and broke below 50 DMA on 4/28.  Acting well since 7/29 BV BO.  Great volume behind most recent breakout and now sitting just off new highs.

L= Leader  |  ET = Extended  |  BO = Break Out (new)  |  BV = Big Volume
NC = No Comment  |  F = Fundamentals
C = Current Quarterly Earnings Per Share |  A = Annual Earnings Per Share
S = Shares Outstanding | I = Institutional Ownership

 
SPECIAL ARTICLE            
Buying Quality Stocks in Today's Market: Pullbacks Versus 21-Day New Highs and 21-Day New Lows
I’ve written here about cycles in the market, i.e., market patterns that appear often enough to be judged statistically significant. For example, the Automotive, Health Services, and Aerospace Industry Groups were shown last month to provide the best performance of the 31 groups in the September-to-December time frame over the last four years. Here, I want to contrast three chart patterns that are routinely used to enter long positions in short-term trades. I think you’ll be surprised at the results.

Larry Connors and Conor Sen wrote an important book detailing the importance of chart patterns, “How Markets Really Work: A Quantitative Guide to Stock Market Behavior”. I received my copy just before hurricane Ivan arrived and was so fascinated by the subject that I finished it that evening, storm and all. It presents 15 years of historical data (1/1/89 through 12/31/03) refuting much of what passes for "common market truisms." These authors looked at several market criteria (new 5 and 10-day highs and lows, the impact of being above or below the 200-day moving average, multiple day pullbacks, and others) to evaluate how each impacted one day through one week returns for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 cash markets. Most of what they found went against our dearly held market beliefs.

For example, during this period there were 947 10-day highs in the S&P. Buying the close of a new 10-day high then selling one week later returned 0.0% on average with 53.43% of the trades being profitable. Not too impressive, since the average 5-day return (irrespective of whether a new 10-day high had been made or not) was +0.21%. Contrast this behavior with buying a 10-day low then selling one week later. This strategy returned 0.56% on average with 333 (of 557) profitable trades (almost three times the unrestricted average 5-day return). The message: Buying strength hasn't worked as well as buying weakness! If one buys the 10-day low but requires the S&P 500 cash index to be above its 200-day moving average, the average return increases to +0.66% with a 66.43% win rate (190 winners of 286 occurrences). The authors put it this way: "...the greater opportunity and edge lies in being a buyer as the market makes a new short-term low versus buying when it makes a new high."

Following this theme, I tested three common patterns used for entering long positions in individual stocks: three or more day pullbacks, new 21-day highs (breakouts), and new 21-day lows (bottom fishing). Chart 1 shows examples of each for ARO as they occurred over a two-month period in 2003. To validate this study, I studied these three patterns for a group of fundamentally sound stocks (9/24/04 IBD 100) with earnings and analysts’ rankings revision fuel (Zacks rankings of 1 or 2) and value left in price (two year PEG ratios less than 1.25): 36 stocks shown in Table I were evaluated over the 294-day period between 7/30/03 and 9/28/04 (10,584 test days).

For the pullback, three or more lower highs were followed by a reversal candle. To limit purchases to stocks in up trends, the 50-day moving average was required to be rising over the last six days, and the 20-day moving average to be greater than its 50-day. When these conditions were met, a long position was entered then exited at the close five days later.

Similarly, for the 21-day high, a position was entered when today’s price exceeded the high of the last 20 days, again, when the 50-day moving average was rising over the last six days, and the 20-day moving average had to be greater than its 50. When these conditions were met, a long position was entered then exited at the close five days later.

Finally, for the 21-day low, a new position was taken today when price exceeded the high of yesterday’s new 21-day low, this time with no additional conditions. And again, the position was exited at the close five days later.


Table 1

Table I provides results for each of the 36 stocks over the 294-day period. AMED, for example, had 16 pullbacks meeting the required conditions and an average resultant five-day gain of +3.0% (10 with positive gains and 6 with losses); AMED had 33 instances of making new 21-day highs and an average five-day gain of +3.89%. AMED also had 6 instances of new 21-day lows and an average gain of +5.58%. Contrast these returns with the average 5-day gain (+2.29%) earned from the control condition, i.e., from buying each occurrence where today’s price exceeded yesterday’s high and holding for five days.

For these stocks, the average 5-day gain for the control condition was +1.27%, as these were quality stocks performing in both bullish and bearish phases of the market. Limiting buys to pullbacks increased returns to +1.84% (1.45x the control), to new 21-day highs increased returns to +1.38% (1.09x the control), to new 21-day lows increased returns to +2.59% (2.04x the control). Clearly, in this market, buying the new 21-day lows for a week-long trade was a superior strategy to either buying pullbacks or buying breakouts. These results are consistent with Connor’s findings for 15 years of S&P data. While significantly longer holding periods lessens the importance of an entry strategy, the strategy of buying 21-day lows reduces short-term risk and provides better risk/reward limits.

- Richard W. Miller, Ph.D.

Richard Miller, Ph. D - Statistics professional and serious trader with years of technical analysis-based trading. He currently manages six different portfolios. He maintains his own of stock analysis website. To learn more visit TripleScreenMethod.com or email him directly at rwmill@yahoo.com
 
MARKET   SENSE            

Kids are Curious About Money, Business, and Investing
Soraya Nasrallah, Registered Representative, Source Capital Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC 

“What does investing mean?” yelled the six-year-old son of an acquaintance of mine. I was at a local café talking with friends about my new book, “InvestorWiz”. During the conversation a variety of investment-related words came up which prompted the boy’s curiosity and subsequent interruption.

I don’t know much about children, but this boy must have been quite smart to have picked up on this word. Sadly, the father’s response was a less then enthusiastic, “You’ll learn about that much later”. I should have stopped him and said, “Let’s teach him now!” Of course, that might not have been the best time for a lesson in business and investing, but the young man’s curiosity motivated me to create three fun learning activities that can be used to teach kids about money and business. Please note that this is best for children who have at least grasped the concept of money and have the appropriate focus and patience.

The Candy Bag Sample: Actually, my mom recommended this one. With your child, take a trip to the local food store with a pad and pen. Buy a favorite bag of candy. Let your youngster help out by asking him or her to read and write down the name of the item and original price. When you’ve returned home, count the amount of candy in the bag (inventory!). Here’s the crux of the lesson: show your child that by selling each individual piece (to another family member or neighbor) for a certain price he or she will end up with more money than the original cost of the whole bag of candy. Let them make the calculation of the difference between what was spent and what was brought in, figuring out the actual profit. By having the youngster write up the calculations and present those figures creatively (break out the construction paper, colored markers, glitter, etc.), you can easily give them a sense of pride and accomplishment. As always, make them feel proud of their accomplishment! Of course, eating some of the candy is a nice prize at the end of the project.

Lemonade Stand: This activity is realistic and quite fun, and it could actually be profitable. Take your kid(s) to the store and let them have the calculator and show them how to add the cost of all items while selecting all the lemonade ingredients from a list you have both made. Don’t worry about the tax unless they are truly ready for it. It’s very important that everyone involved carefully record the money spent. The best solution is to have a color board where all the figures can be prominently posted. Setting up a creative and colorful lemonade stand is very important so your kids can really get into it! There are some good lessons in marketing and retail sales involved, too. Have the kids track the money that is coming in so that at the end they can add up the sales revenues and then figure out how close they are to actually making a profit. Even if there are no profits, calculating the losses is an equally important lesson. Make sure that there is a nice reward that will motivate them to sell their lemonade and make more money than what was spent!

Bake That Cookie!: Baking cookies for fun, profit, and learning. Making it fun for the children is very important. Start this project with a good cookie recipe. Then you and your kids can go shopping and write down the price of each item. Let them have the calculator so that they can start adding the price of all the needed items. Include some tissue paper and ribbons so that the cookies can be packaged nicely. These nicely wrapped baked goodies can be sold to friends and neighbors or even better, sold at a bake sale. This is a great activity for a group of kids in the neighborhood. When they’ve sold the cookies, have the participants calculate the profit. This is also a good time to calculate the loss for prematurely eaten cookies. Remember to give them an extra incentive or prize that was promised for their work in turning a profit! If they concentrate on that reward, they will be more willing to do the work! Happy Baking!

For a great cookie recipe, I turned to my good friend, Cindy. She is a professional pastry chef who has worked in some nationally-known restaurants. She also has her own cookbook coming out. If you want this recipe, email her at dessertgirl21@yahoo.com.

Studies have found that American kids are woefully lacking when it comes to knowledge about money and business. Engaging your children in business and money matters early in life can give them a huge advantage as they get older. While the activities above are more about business, the lessons learned are an outstanding introduction to the more sophisticated lessons of stocks and investing. Once your kids grasp the concepts of simple capitalism and business, their own curiosity might lead them to ask more questions about investing.

I am introducing my NEW educational investment course for novice investors - InvestorWiz

  • Ten easy chapters that help you understand the markets, the economy, fundamental and technical analysis, and types of brokerage accounts.

  • Simple language, pictures, samples, homework, and answers page in each chapter.

  • Understand what your financial advisor is doing for you!

  • Help yourself to become financially independent through good investing.

Visit www.Investorwiz.com to learn more!

 
Soraya Nasrallah, obtained her Series 7 license in 1992, and has served in the capacity of Sales Assistant, Head of Operations Department, and Stockbroker.  Contact Soraya Nasrallah via email at snasrallah@sourcegrp.com or by phone at (954)785-1990 for assistance you with your portfolio. She will be pleased to offer ideas that suit your investment needs, and she can help you achieve the gains you have been searching for.  Miss Nasrallah has just introduced a new educational program called InvestorWiz! specifically created for teenagers and novice investors, incorporating stock market basics with CANSLIM in a colorful and picturesque format. It is the perfect gift for those who just don’t know much about the world of stocks and investing!

Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm. 

 
SPECIAL    FEATURE           

CANSLIM – An Investing and Trading Strategy
Editors Note: While many of our subscribers are well-versed in the CANSLIM method of investing, we think it is important to include the occasional article on CANSLIM basics for educational purposes. This is a helpful review for our new subscribers who may not have as much familiarity with the system.

There are a wide variety of trading and investing strategies. These strategies can be based on one or more of the vast array of factors that cause the price of a stock to go up or down. Any good investment strategy should be based on years of stock market analysis and it should always rely on thorough back-testing to ensure that the strategy works and that there are hard numbers to back it up.

Finding patterns through decades of market data is a daunting task but the rewards can be substantial. When William J. O’Neil was a stock broker, he spent a lot of time doing just that – looking through reams of historical data to find patterns. O’Neil found one remarkable trend: stocks that go up tend to keep going up and that stocks that go down tend to keep going down. In digging deeper into this trend he also found a variety of other factors – some based on the stock’s fundamentals, some based on the stock’s technicals – that have a serious impact on the stock’s price performance.

With all of this stock performance analysis, O’Neil developed an investment method that could be used consistently and successfully over time. He dubbed this method “CANSLIM”, based on the acronym he created for the factors that go into the stock analysis. He also presented this investment strategy in the very popular book “How to Make Money in Stocks”, the 3rd edition of this book published in 2002.

Below is the CANSLIM acronym. Some of the descriptive text comes directly from “How to Make Money in Stocks”, 3rd edition.

C = Current quarterly earnings per share.
The earnings in the latest quarterly financials reported should be up a minimum of 25% over the year earlier. Earnings per share must be growing. Look in Investor’s Business Daily for EPS ranks that are 80+.

A = Annual earnings per share.
There should be meaningful growth over the last five years. The annual compounded growth rate of earnings in the superior firms should be from 15% to 50%, or even more, per year.

N = New product/management/price high.
Usually it is a new product or service that causes the big earnings acceleration. New price highs on heavy trading volume signaled the right time to buy.

S = Supply/Demand: Small Cap + Volume
The price of a stock with 400 million shares outstanding is much harder to move up because of the large supply of stock available. Yet, if a company has only 5 or 10 million shares outstanding, a reasonable amount of buying can push the price up rapidly. The overwhelming majority of big winners identified by O’Neil’s study had 25 million shares or fewer outstanding.

L = Leader or Laggard?
The stock should be a leader in the overall market and within its group. As well, the group should be leader in the overall market. Choose stocks with high relative strength ranks 80+.

I = Institutional Sponsorship
It takes big demand to move a stock significantly higher in price. Institutional buyers are the most powerful source. You don't need a large number of institutional owners, but at least a few top performing mutual funds must own an interest.

M = Market Direction
The performance of the overall market can greatly impact the performance of even the best stock, and 3 out of 4 stocks follow the general market direction. The best way to analyze the overall market is to follow and understand every day what the general averages are doing.

As well as the analyzing the factors that make up the CANSLIM acronym, O’Neil has come up with some additional guidelines and rules that go into the overall CANSLIM investment strategy. Two of these rules and guidelines are (1) protect your investment account and (2) never get emotional.

Protecting your investment account means taking out some loss insurance in the form of an 8% stop loss order when you’ve bought a stock properly. If the stock drops 8%, it is automatically sold. Recovering from losses requires increasingly significant percentage gains as the size of your losses increase. If a stock goes down 50%, the price will have to double in order to recover those losses. William O’Neil says in 24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success, “How often do you buy stocks that double in price?”

Not getting emotional means using a system rather than emotional hunches or ideas. Using a system means utilizing statistical research and proper analysis to appropriately learn from success and failure. It means admitting to mistakes and taking corrective action regarding future trading decisions. Not being emotional can also help protect your investment account when it comes time for selling the stocks you’ve bought.

All of these rules and guidelines are described in more detail in O’Neil’s book, “24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success”, published in 2000. We strongly recommend that anyone who is interested in the CANSLIM method of investing read “How to Make Money in Stocks” and also subscribe to the Investor’s Business Daily.

The CANSLIM method of investing is a combination of fundamental and technical analysis used to find stocks that are poised for a big rise in price on heavy volume. This rise in price on heavy volume is called a “breakout” when it clears a base or sideways pattern at least 6 weeks in duration. The rise in price and the heavy volume (minimum guideline is 50%+ above its average daily volume) is the result of institutional investors – mutual funds, pension funds, hedge funds, etc – buying the stock in large amounts. The opposite, a “breakdown” can happen when institutions sell large amounts of shares in a stock. If you see high volume behind considerable declines in price, take it as a hint institutional owners are unloading and consider it a sell signal when it breaks below a prior support level, upward trend line or key moving averages.

While the CANSLIM method is fairly straightforward, the challenge lies in finding all the various bits of statistical financial information that are necessary to complete a proper CANSLIM analysis of a stock and the overall markets. The Investor’s Business Daily and their website, www.investors.com is an excellent source. There are also some free resources available through Zacks and Yahoo. Here at CANSLIM.net, we use a wide variety of sources so our subscribers don’t have to spend hours and hours tracking down stocks and doing analysis. We save you time and make it easier for you to profit from the most ideal CANSLIM winners.

The CANSLIM method of investing has proven to be a very successful approach. Good CANSLIM stocks rise more than the market averages during bull markets and also maintain their value during bear markets. Hundreds of thousands of individual investors follow CANSLIM, and the American Association of Individual Investors performed a five year study on the system and found that "CANSLIM has been one of the most consistent and strongest-performing [stock selection] screens during both bull and bear markets."

- Andrew C. Hansen

 
EDITOR'S  LETTER            
So Much for So Little
In the coming months we will be sending out renewal messages because we had a major surge in CANSLIM.net News ($79 per year – 12 monthly issues) subscription sales starting in September of last year. Subscribers who purchased a one-year subscription to CANSLIM.net News were at the time given a full CANSLIM.net StockNews membership at the price of our monthly newsletter alone. Existing customers now qualify for the discounted annual renewal price of $179 for a full 1-year CANSLIM.net StockNews membership.

Naturally, there have been questions regarding what some folks are considering as a price increase of greater than 100%. The CANSLIM.net StockNews membership includes much more than the monthly CANSLIM.net News issue - the most important additions being two daily reports, plus occasional - but very timely - stock bulletins, stock alert reports, and other special reports.

Our CANSLIM.net Mid-Day BreakOuts Report is an exceptionally valuable report that shows breakouts as they are happening during the trading day. Producing this report takes quite a lot of effort in an extremely short period of time. Once we complete the software screen of our Leaders List, our experts review each and every stock to complete a brief, but very detailed analysis for the “notes” section of the break outs list table. From noon until that report goes out is a very hectic time here at the CANSLIM.net offices!

The CANSLIM.net After-Market Update comes out after the market closes. In that report our “Featured Stock Update” section follows the stocks CANSLIM.net StockNews members have seen recently featured in the monthly newsletter or occasional stock bulletins and stock alert reports. We also give expanded market commentary – including our “Industry Group Watch” section.

When we create these two daily reports, we are basically creating two daily newspapers. It is a challenging task that takes serious effort and no small amount of resources. We also apply these resources to our Stock Bulletins, Stock Alert Reports, and other special reports. Our most recent special report was released on August 22 of this year (here). So far in 2004, we have produced 13 Stock Bulletins, 1 Stock Alert Report, and a Special Report, and there are three months still remaining in the year!

Renew today and make a commitment to becoming a more successful investor using time-tested strategies. While helping yourself, renewing you will also be helping CANSLIM.net to continue to improve our services. We’ve added a lot in recent years, and all of our tools are designed to save you time and increase your odds of investing success. The actual monthly rate is quite modest, and your continued membership is important! With the renewal discount a 1-year CANSLIM.net StockNews subscription equates to less than $15 each month. Many Internet-based investment services and financial newsletters charge double, triple that amount, and more.

If you decide to renew early you will not lose any months, we simply add the term of your renewal subscription to the end of your current CANSLIM.net StockNews subscription. To renew now and take advantage of the special renewal discount, click here. Feel free to call us at 1-800-965-8307 if you have questions.

Also, if you are interested in receiving only the 12 monthly issues of CANSLIM.net News and nothing else, please let us know. While we are not presently offering the monthly newsletter by itself, we will do whatever we can to accommodate your needs. Keeping every one of you onboard as a happy and loyal subscriber is a CANSLIM.net priority.

Andrew C. Hansen
Editor, CANSLIM.net
editor@canslim.net

If you know someone who might find this report or the features on our website useful, please tell them about http://www.canslim.net/.  As CANSLIM.net's subscriber base grows we are able to offer additional resources to help you become a more successful investor.  We appreciate hearing any feedback that you may have. Please submit any questions, comments or suggestions here.

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Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of CANSLIM.net.  The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto.  Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities.  This is an unsolicited opinion, and CANSLIM.net has not been compensated in any way by the company(s) mentioned in this report.

CAN SLIM (written here as "CANSLIM" or "Canslim:) is a registered trademark of William O'Neil + Co. CANSLIM.net is not owned nor affiliated with William O'Neil + Co. or any of their subsidiaries including The Investor's Business Daily newspaper.