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THIS
MONTH'S |
SPECIAL |
NOTICE
|
|
|
This report is now
available in an Adobe PDF format
here. To read a PDF
file, you will need the latest version of the Adobe
Acrobat Reader if it is not already installed on
your computer:
 |
|
CURRENT
|
MARKET |
CONDITIONS |
|
|
A overview of the
current market conditions - the important "M" in CANSLIM.
Small-Cap & Mid-Cap Stock Indexes Meeting Healthy
Market Definition
The Nasdaq Composite managed to stay above its 50-day moving average line on the
most recent dip, but it is still trading below its 200-day moving average. What
is a bit more troubling is that the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq
Composite are all trading under their longer-term 200-day moving average lines.
Not long ago the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 Index had managed to rally above
their respective 200 DMAs and were looking better, however they are lingering
just a bit below those important long-term averages right now. The reason that
this is important is because one of O'Neil's criteria for a healthy market
environment is that he suggests two of those three major indices need to be
trading above their rising 200-day moving average lines.


The Nasdaq Composite's 200-day line has been
rolling over and sloping downward since late-July. The Dow and S&P 500 both have
200 DMAs that are still on the rise, and a small improvement could help them
meet that important guideline and trigger additional upside momentum. So, there
are some reasons to remain a bit tentative about your buying efforts while the
market lingers in its present stance, yet there are also some encouraging signs.
CANSLIM fans are not interested in goliath
companies like those that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And while
the blue chip indices are not exactly meeting O’Neil’s “healthy market”
definition, the smaller and mid-sized stock indexes are. The Russell 2000 Index
climbed back above its rising 200 DMA on Wednesday September 29th. The S&P 400
Mid-Cap Index is also above its rising 200 DMA now. And the S&P 600 Small-Cap
Index is in the greatest shape of them all, above its rising 50 & 200 DMAs and
now sitting less than 2% off its all-time high.

There are other indications that many growth
stocks are acting better. Right now 229 high-ranked stocks on CANSLIM.net’s
Leaders List are presently trading at or within 5% of their 52-week
highs. Watchful investors with discipline should be watching the new highs list
regularly at this time, and they should be poised to strike quickly when the
most ideal candidates emerge from appropriate bases.
- Kenneth
J. Gruneisen |
|
MARKETS |
LEADING |
GROUPS |
|
|
You stack the odds of making a winning
trade in your favor by choosing a leading company in a
leading industry group, so when buying stocks be sure
to choose one with
plenty of company, that is a stock trading among
a group of several
strong-performing peers! Familiarize
yourself with the list of the top performing industry groups
and leading stocks listed below. These symbols
and related
companies ARE NOT intended to be construed as a list
of timely and proper CANSLIM-based
choices.* These pace-setters in each of
the currently top-ranked groups listed may not
presently fit within the
guidelines we suggest adhering to. The point is
that it is always wise to choose leaders in the same
or a very similar business to that of the strongest
stocks in the market. Find companies that
resemble other strong stocks' leadership
characteristics.
CANSLIM.net's
most timely buy candidates are
analyzed by our experts in great detail in the "Stocks to Watch in This New Market
"section.
|
RANK |
GROUP NAME |
GROUP LEADERS
SYMBOL ,% FROM 52WK HIGH,
# OF DAYS MAKING
NEW HIGHS (Sept) |
|
1 |
ENERGY |
PXP, 0.72%, 8
|
PDS, -0.26%, 7 |
PETD, -0.27%, 7
|
MUR, -0.44%, 9 |
OXY, -0.94%, 8
|
WFT, -1.03%, 9
|
BR, -1.07%, 7 |
BHI, -1.26%, 8
|
CVX, -1.56%, 10
|
BJS, -1.63%, 7 |
APA, -1.75%, 7
|
CDIS, -1.79%, 7
|
SWN, -2.01%, 10 |
SII, -2.08%, 8
|
WLL, -2.56%, 8
|
HYDL, -2.74%, 10
| BRY, -4.45%, 9
|
|
2 |
TRANSPORTATION |
LSTR, 0.48%, 9
|
GMR, -2.41%, 9 |
FDX, -3.61%, 8 | NSC, 0.20%
| OMM,
0.00% | SNSA,
-0.44% | GBX,
-0.50% | EAGL,
-0.98% |
|
3 |
METALS & MINING |
STLD, 0.65%, 9
|
CCJ, -1.36%, 11 | CMC, 1.33%
| IPS, 1.26%
| NX, 0.43%
| CRS, 0.15%
| PCU,
0.02% |
|
4 |
FINANCIAL SERVICES |
CNS, -6.20%, 8
|
FMD, -9.02%, 7 | SJT, -0.97%
| BNN, -2.58%
| BLK, -3.30%
| IFIN,
-7.71% | WRLD,
-9.71% |
|
5 |
COMPUTER SOFTWARE &
SERVICES |
ADSK, -1.68%, 10 | CSGP, 1.72%
| JUPM,
0.62% | SRX,
-1.51% | ADBE,
-2.48% | MCRS,
-3.71% |
|
6 |
CONSUMER DURABLES |
HAR, -0.11%, 11 | FOSL,
0.32%
| LEG, -2.46%
| RCRC, -8.10%
| STLY, -9.05%
|
|
7 |
BANKING |
CORS, -6.65%, 7 | BOH, -1.71%
| CATY,
-1.95% | WTFC,
-1.95% | OZRK,
-2.14% | RGF,
-2.15% |
|
8 |
CHEMICALS |
IGL, -2.30%, 8 | SYT, 0.74%
| GGC,
-1.11%
| FMC, -1.18%
| POL, -1.70%
| BRC, -2.91%
|
|
9 |
HEALTH SERVICES |
UNH, -1.35%, 9 | SIE, 0.48%
| COO,
-0.17% | AMMD,
-0.30% | HAE,
-0.33% | CVH,
-1.71% |
Notes:
-
CANSLIM.net News
Staff
|
|
INVESTING
FOR |
THE NEW |
MILLENNIUM |
|
Common Questions and Frustrations Heard on
the Street
In the past two weeks we made three CANSLIM.net presentations –
audiences included the West Coast and Central Florida chapter
members of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII),
and The Investor Education Network’s wonderful South Florida
group. The response to these presentations was overwhelmingly
positive. Helping investors be more successful is what we love
doing, so we are willing to break from our normal routines and
take time to put together these events. We hope to get out and
do more of these presentations in the future. If you know of an
educational investment group or club that might appreciate
having us come out please let us know. We appreciate the
opportunity to speak.One
thing that helped make these Florida events successful and
enjoyable was the fact we had electricity – something that
Floridians can’t take for granted lately! While enduring
multiple hurricanes, the outpouring of friendly and encouraging
remarks from many CANSLIM.net fans has been a definite lift to
our organization’s spirits. I thoroughly appreciate the sincere
thanks and praise that many folks have passed along concerning
the quality of the analytical work we do. Thank you!
I am proud of the great team of
people we have working here. I made the rounds after an
associate approached me requesting a contribution to the Florida
Jaycees Disaster Relief Fund. Every person here stepped up and
made a meaningful donation (which they agreed to have deducted
from their paychecks). When I handed the combined check to my
friend from the Jaycees it definitely raised his eyebrows, and
he thanked us for our generosity. This, and prior donations to
the American Red Cross, are just a couple of examples that
clearly demonstrate the willingness we have to assist those who
are in need of help.
"I am
proud of the great team of people we have working here"
Speaking of help, do-it-yourself
minded investors don’t often think they need the kind of help
offered by a full-service broker like me. They might be
surprised at how reasonable my full-service fees are and also
impressed by the performance. I admire those who want to do
things on their own. Those who are willing to go out and invest
but who then complain about their results without being willing
to invest the time needed to read the book amaze me. Questions I
hear frequently asked reveal often that people have not yet read
the book. The letter-by-letter CANSLIM summary in the
presentation I make stays the same, and there is nothing that I
cover that isn’t covered better by reading “How to Make Money in
Stocks” by William J. O’Neil.
When speaking to groups, I find
that I am continually asked many of the same questions: Does
CANSLIM still work today, now that so many people already knows
its secrets?; CANSLIM only works well in an up market, so in a
down market do you suggest shorting stocks?; Instead of the
buying CANSLIM stocks, can’t you buy options?; How do you set
target prices?; When do you sell?; Do you help people manage
their brokerage accounts? Answers: Yes; No; I don’t; I don’t; I
sell once I see more than one technical indication of
deterioration; Yes, that is exactly what I do for a living each
day.
My job as your coach is to help
you to realize above-average returns on your investment
portfolio. Many investors express frustration over the results
they are getting by doing the portfolio managing themselves.
They also grow tired of the absolute overload of market-related
information that is available. The important point to focus on
is quality, not quantity. Who needs 150 breakouts per day? When
you see 150 breakouts in one day that is when you need help,
narrowing the list down to a few of the very best candidates.
When there are not even 10 new breakouts it is no problem
spotting them. However, that latter case is when you need
someone to remind you that there is not enough leadership to
sustain a meaningful advance and the market environment is just
not right.
Kenneth
J. Gruneisen - A Registered Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group
(Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers personalized
assistance. Investors with a significant financial
interest in equities may inquire about opening an account
by calling the office
locally at (954) 785-1990 or 1-888-237-8399 or emailing to
kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com Further information is always available upon request.
Contact us if
you know anyone that may have an interest in receiving
this or any of our other reports.
Comments contained in the body of this report are
technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of
Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable and
accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be
guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect
transactions, including transactions contrary to any
recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities
mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any
recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an
offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the
purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group,
Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm.
|
|
|
STOCKS TO |
WATCH IN THIS |
NEW MARKET |
|
Our
staff of experts researches and then compiles a list
of selected stocks which warrant further investigation
by investors. These stocks show strong potential for a
share price breakout based on the CANSLIM investment
methodology. These are not necessarily buy
recommendations. If anytime
throughout the month our contributors find a
particular stock that has similar characteristics as
the ideas featured below we will produce one of our
CANSLIM.net Stock Bulletins or a CANSLIM.net Stock
Alert Report. These reports will be emailed as a direct link to
all subscribers.
|
Armor Holdings, Inc
|
-
Kenneth J. Gruneisen |
|
Ticker Symbol:
AH (NYSE) |
Industry Group:
Commercial Services Security/Safety |
Shares Outstanding:
32.8 Million |
|
Price: $41.61
(09/30/04 close) |
Day's Volume:
797,400 (09/30/04 close) |
Shares in Float:
28.5 Million |
|
52 Week High:
$40.28 |
50-Day Average
Volume: 601,000 |
Up/Down Volume
Ratio: 1.7 |
|
Pivot Point:
$40.28 (08/03/04 high plus $0.10) |
Pivot Point +5% =
Max Buy Price: $42.29 |
Web Address:
www.armorholdings.com |

Financials
| StockTalk
| News
|
Chart
| SEC
|
Zacks Reports
|
Armor
Holdings -
Quarterly Comparisons Versus The Year
Earlier |
|
Quarter: |
09/30/03 |
12/31/03 |
03/31/04 |
06/30/04 |
|
Earnings: |
0.22
vs 0.24 |
-8% |
0.34
vs 0.25 |
+36% |
0.43
vs 0.19 |
+126% |
0.81
vs 0.21 |
+286% |
|
Sales ($Mil): |
90.9
vs 80.6 |
+13% |
112.2
vs 83.3 |
+35% |
161.6 vs 80.5 |
+101% |
223.7
vs 81.7 |
+174% |
Profile: Armor Holdings, Inc. is a
manufacturer and provider of specialized security products, training and support
services related to these products, vehicle armor systems, military helicopter
seating systems, aircraft and land vehicle armor systems, protective equipment
for military personnel and other technologies used to protect humans in a
variety of life-threatening or catastrophic situations. The Company's products
and systems are used domestically and internationally by military, law
enforcement, security and corrections personnel, as well as governmental
agencies, multinational corporations and individuals. A June 9, 2004 stock
offering increased its shares outstanding to 32.8 million, still a
reasonably small supply. Quality mutual fund ownership in AH has risen
from 90, 116, to 136 over Dec '03, Mar '04 and Jun
'04. It maintains very high
ranks from IBD, and fundamentals have turned up. Earnings per share increases
in the two most recent financial reports were up over the year earlier by
+126%, +286% in Mar ’04 and Jun ‘04 respectively while sales revenues
accelerated. Insiders hold 13% of shares outstanding, keeping them
motivated to look after shareholder value. There has still been a good amount of
confirming strength from other
high-ranked leaders in the Commercial Services - Security/Safety group including
TASR, but IBD's Industry Group rank has admittedly fallen to a mediocre
level.
What to Look For and Look Out For:
This stock appears poised to continue advancing as the price is already clear of
resistance caused by overhead supply. If you missed an early entry, the
conservative guideline of up to 5% above the pivot provides for purchases
up to a maximum price of $42.29. Support should be found in the
range of prior highs it recently cleared and above the upward trend line drawn
on the accompanying graph. Deterioration on high volume below those
support points would be cause for concern as it would slip into its prior
base. Losses of more than 8% should not be tolerated.
Technical Analysis: AH
broke out on Sep 24, 2004, and it is still within a reasonable buy point under the
guidelines. The stock is trading
above its pivot point with only one above average volume down day of
significance since its
5/27 - 6/28 pullback (a time when the additional stock offering hindered its
progress). As the volume on the recent breakout was triple the average, the
stock seems poised for higher prices. The RS line hit a new high previous to the
stock hitting a new high, also a good confirming sign it is a strong leader.
|
First Horizon Pharmaceutical
Corp |
-
Kenneth J. Gruneisen |
|
Ticker Symbol:FHRX (Nasdaq) |
Industry Group: Medical-Ethical Drugs |
Shares Outstanding:
36.0
Million |
|
Price:
$20.01 (09/30/04 close) |
Day's Volume:
1,740,500 (at close
09/30/04) |
Shares in Float: 26.3
Million |
|
52 Week High: $20.20 (09/30/04) |
50-Day Average
Volume:
409,900 |
Up/Down Volume
Ratio: 1.9 |
|
Pivot Point: $20.08
(06/24/04 high plus .10) |
Pivot Point +5% =
Max Buy Price:
21.08 |
Web Address:
www.horizonpharm.com |

Financials
|
StockTalk
| News
|
Chart
| SEC
|
Zacks Reports
|
First Horizon -
Quarterly Comparisons Versus The
Year Earlier |
|
Quarter: |
09/30/03 |
12/31/03 |
03/31/04 |
06/30/04 |
|
Earnings: |
0.10
vs 0.07 |
+43% |
0.17
vs 0.13 |
+31% |
0.14
vs -0.25 |
N/A |
0.15
vs -0.18 |
N/A |
|
Sales ($Mil): |
24.7
vs 27.1 |
-9% |
37.1
vs 35.0 |
+6% |
32.0 vs 12.5 |
+156% |
36.0
vs 21.0 |
+72% |
Profile:
First Horizon
Pharmaceutical Corporation, is a specialty pharmaceutical
company that markets and sells brand name prescription products. The Company
markets and sells 14 products, six of which are actively promoted and accounted
for approximately 92.7% of its total sales in 2003. Its key products are Sular,
Nitrolingual, the Prenate line, the Tanafed line, the Robinul line and Ponstel.
Most of these products treat recurring or chronic conditions or disorders, which
results in repeated use over an extended period of time. They focus on two
therapeutic categories, cardiology and women's health/pediatric. First Horizon
markets its products to high-prescribing primary care physicians, cardiologists,
obstetricians, gynecologists and pediatricians. Institutional accumulation
is evident as 53, 72, and 93 quality mutual funds held an
interest in Dec '03, Mar '04 and Jun '04 respectively. There are other
high-ranked leaders in the
Medical-Ethical Drugs group
acting well including CNCT and BCII, but IBD's Industry Group rank is admittedly
a bit mediocre.
What to Look For and Look Out For: With the latest blast of volume
FHRX appears on a course for higher ground. Any high volume price
deterioration beyond recent lows in the $18.50 range would be cause for
concern. A violation of support at its 50 DMA would be a more serious
technical sell signal. It has historic 2001 & 2002 highs in the $32-33
range which means there could still be some remaining resistance to chew
through. Even though the base now looks substantial enough and more than 1-1/2
years have passed, the fact that it traded in the $2 range for a
brief time in March 2003 gives everyone a reason to realize that it has come a
long way, thus a 7-8% stop loss and strict sell discipline are quite
crucial.
Technical Analysis: In mid-September there were a number of high
volume up days that allowed it work up toward prior chart highs, clearing almost
all chart resistance. Then there was a tightening up of the pattern as
volume dried up. On September 30th it blasted to new 52-week highs on
volume four times its average daily total.
Each month our stock picks are
compiled by several expert contributors who hand-pick
these ideas:
Kenneth
J. Gruneisen - A
Registered Investment Advisor & Registered
Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group
(Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers
personalized assistance.
(954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399 or email kgruneisen@
sourcegrp.com |
Mark
Van Kampen
- an
independent investment analyst with more than 20
years of experience. mvankampen
@aol.com |
Dee
Hendon - 24
years of investing and financial services
experience as a financial services professional
most recently as a broker and technical market
analyst and has been an ardent fan William
O’Neill and the CANSLIM discipline for years. |
Richard Miller, Ph. D - Statistics
professional and serious trader with years of
technical analysis-based trading. He currently
manages six different portfolios. He maintains his
own of stock analysis website. To learn more visit
TripleScreenMethod.com or email him directly at
rwmill@yahoo.com |
|
|
MID-DAY
BREAKOUTS REPORT |
MONTHLY |
REVIEW
|
|
To help demonstrate the value of our daily
CANSLIM.net Mid-Day BreakOuts Report and other proprietary reports included with
your paid CANSLIM.net StockNews Membership we have added this new section. We
screened all of the stocks that appeared on the Mid-Day BreakOuts Report in the
month of September for all of the stocks we previously highlighted in yellow
(Y="noteworthy"), green (G=previously noteworthy), or blue (B="Featured
Stocks").
We include notes and comments about previous notes which were provided. These
are NOT necessarily ideal buy candidates right now.
|
Symbol/Company Name/Industry
Group |
Last |
Date
High-
lighted |
Price
High-
Lighted |
% Gain / Loss Since Feat. |
Resources |
Summary Notes |
URBN
- NASDAQ
Urban
Outfitters Inc
RETAIL - Apparel Stores |
$34.40 |
4/3/2029 |
$23.33 |
+47.45% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Originally made noteworthy
in the mid-day
breakouts report 03/29/04 at $23.33.
Continued to find support near 50 DMA followed by 5/27's BV BO that started
a good uptrend running the price up to near $35. |
VLO
- NYSE
Valero Energy
Corp
ENERGY - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing |
$80.21 |
4/4/2028 |
$64.09 |
+25.15% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
First marked noteworthy on
04/28/04 at $64.09 as price was breaking out on biggest volume day ever.
Consolidated for several weeks before moving higher in the end of June.
Reached a high of $78 before breaking below 50 DMA and finding support near
$63 before again starting a steep uptrend. |
PCU
- NYSE
Southern Peru
Copper
METALS & MINING - Gold |
$51.66 |
9/28/2004 |
$50.17 |
+2.97% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Just marked on 09/28 with
"L in good group. Highly ranked by IBD. Impressive "C" history. Chart
resembles a bullish cup without a handle. Broke new high Thursday with a
decent gain and volume conviction. |
UNT
- NYSE
Unit Corp
ENERGY - Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati |
$35.08 |
9/21/2004 |
$34.16 |
+2.69% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Just marked noteworthy on
9/21at $34.16 as price broke out then closed at a new high. Has continued
moving up just past $35 and is holding up well. |
CAI
- NYSE
C A C I Intl Cl
A
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Technical Services |
$52.78 |
9/21/2004 |
$51.92 |
+1.66% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Just marked noteworthy on
9/22 with a BV BO and has been consolidating on overall lighter volume
since. |
ASTE
- NASDAQ
Astec
Industries Inc
MANUFACTURING - Farm & Construction Machinery |
$19.12 |
9/20/2004 |
$19.60 |
-2.45% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Good group. Not highly
ranked yet recent turnaround in sales and earnings looks impressive. Cup
with handle like pattern. Reversed 9/21 following BV BO day, yet held above
support and it is again moving up on above average volume. |
INSP
- NASDAQ
Infospace Inc
INTERNET - Internet Information Providers |
$47.39 |
9/20/2004 |
$46.48 |
+1.96% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
First marked noteworthy on
9/20 with "L in very good group. Impressive move today. Improving A."
|
LIFE
- NASDAQ
Lifeline
Systems Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Processing Systems & Products |
$24.42 |
9/20/2004 |
$24.50 |
-0.33% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Marked noteworthy 9/20.
Finished today with a new high close on above average volume. Looks good. |
PDS
- NYSE
Precision
Drilling Corp
ENERGY - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services |
$57.50 |
9/17/2004 |
$53.02 |
+8.45% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Has produced good gains
since highlighted. Now consolidating a bit. |
SII
- NYSE
Smith
International
ENERGY - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services |
$60.73 |
9/15/2004 |
$59.82 |
+1.52% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Recently marked
noteworthy. Continues in uptrend since. |
AMWD
- NASDAQ
American
Woodmark Corp
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION - Lumber, Wood Production |
$37.03 |
9/13/2004 |
$35.55 |
+4.16% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
First marked noteworthy
with a BV BO. Produced gains now consolidating on overall lighter volume.
2/1 split 9/27/04. |
ACAP
- NASDAQ
American
Physicians Cap
INSURANCE - Property & Casualty Insurance |
$30.62 |
9/7/2004 |
$29.45 |
+3.97% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
First marked noteworthy
with a pivot point of $28.52 and maximum buy price of $29.95. Produced good
gains then consolidated though today had some decent price progress on above
average volume. |
BDK
- NYSE
Black & Decker
Corp
MANUFACTURING - Small Tools & Accessories |
$77.44 |
9/7/2004 |
$74.29 |
+4.24% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Highlighted on BV BO
based a while then until it recently started a move to new highs. Ends
month with a new high close. |
MBT
- NYSE
Mobile
Telesystems Adr
TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Wireless Communications |
$144.99 |
9/7/2004 |
$143.75 |
+0.86% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Just featured as chart was
forming a cup with handle pattern. |
STLD
- NASDAQ
Steel Dynamics
Inc
METALS & MINING - Steel & Iron |
$38.62 |
9/7/2004 |
$33.96 |
+13.72% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Originally marked
noteworthy on 9/7 with "L in pretty good group. Nice BV BO today. Highly
ranked by IBD" as price was breaking out of a decent base. Closed at a new
high today, and impressive last "C". |
RGF
- NYSE
R & G Financial
Corp
BANKING - Foreign Regional Banks |
$38.65 |
9/7/2004 |
$37.22 |
+3.84% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Produced gains since
highlighted, now consolidating. |
BNN
- NYSE
Brascan
Corporation Cl A
FINANCIAL SERVICES - Asset Management |
$30.20 |
9/2/2004 |
$29.10 |
+3.78% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Marked noteworthy with "L
in Decent group. Nice last few "C"s. Decent base. Trades just 70,300 shares
a day on average." as price was breaking out of 10 week base. Continues
uptrend. |
CATY
- NASDAQ
Cathay General
Bancorp
BANKING - Regional - Pacific Banks |
$37.19 |
9/2/2004 |
$35.95 |
+3.45% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Nice price progress today
with volume conviction. 2/1 split 9/29/04 |
COO
- NYSE
Cooper Companies
Inc
HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Instruments & Supplies |
$68.55 |
9/1/2004 |
$62.75 |
+9.24% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Produced good gains since
highlighted and remains in good uptrend. |
INFY
- NASDAQ
Infosys
Technologies Ads
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Technical & System Software |
$56.60 |
9/1/2004 |
$53.99 |
+4.83% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Produced good gains since
highlighted then consolidated now is moving upward. |
IGL
- NYSE
I M C Global Inc
CHEMICALS - Agricultural Chemicals |
$17.39 |
8/31/2004 |
$15.52 |
+12.05% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Marked noteworthy on BV BO
on 8/31, continues good uptrend since. |
FAST
- NASDAQ
Fastenal Co
RETAIL - Home Improvement Stores |
$57.60 |
8/31/2004 |
$62.78 |
-8.25% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Put in slight gains then
quickly gapped down on 9/07/04. Fell under 50 DMA on 9/09/04 and
CANSLIM.net daily coverage in "Featured Stock Update" table was be
suspended. |
CMN
- NYSE
Cantel Medical
Corp
HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Instruments & Supplies |
$24.00 |
8/31/2004 |
$26.48 |
-9.37% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Featured in the Sept
CANSLIM.net News and price has dropped since. CANSLIM.net daily coverage was
suspended 9/13/04. Had not broken above pivot point since featured so
should have never been purchased under the guidelines. |
SYT
- NYSE
Syngenta Ag Adr
CHEMICALS - Agricultural Chemicals |
$19.09 |
8/31/2004 |
$18.05 |
+5.76% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Price dipped since
highlighted yet remained above support. Ends month with another gap open and
new high close. |
HDWR
- NASDAQ
Headwaters Inc
METALS & MINING - Industrial Metals & Minerals |
$30.86 |
8/30/2004 |
$29.97 |
+2.97% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Featured in the Sept
CANSLIM.net News. Several days later got hit with selling. Now sits with
little resistance remaining. |
MLI
- NYSE
Mueller
Industries Inc
MANUFACTURING - Metal Fabrication |
$42.95 |
8/24/2004 |
$38.89 |
+10.44% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Huge gap open since first
highlighted. Consolidated and just ended month with a new high close. |
OXY
- NYSE
Occidental
Petroleum
ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas |
$55.93 |
8/24/2004 |
$49.76 |
+12.40% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Solid uptrend since
highlighted. |
JUPM
- NASDAQ
Jupitermedia
Corp
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Information & Delivery Service
|
$17.80 |
8/22/2004 |
$14.65 |
+21.50% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
First highlighted in a
special report in 8/22. Dipped to 50 DMA since and now ended the month at a
new high close on almost 3 times normal volume. |
EXBD
- NASDAQ
Corporate
Executive Brd
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Business/Management Services |
$61.24 |
8/22/2004 |
$60.06 |
+1.96% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Featured in a special report on 8/22. Moved sideways since
until BV BO on (9/24) and now sits with a new high close. |
FOSL
- NASDAQ
Fossil Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES - Recreational Goods, Other |
$30.94 |
8/22/2004 |
$29.10 |
+6.32% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Featured in a special
report on 8/22. Moved sideways since until BV BO on (9/24) and now sits with
a new high close. |
COBZ
- NASDAQ
Cobiz Inc
BANKING - Regional - Southwest Banks |
$16.53 |
8/22/2004 |
$14.29 |
+15.68% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
BV BO the following day
since being highlighted in a special
report on 8/22 followed by a solid uptrend and now is consolidating. |
CWTR
- NASDAQ
Coldwater Creek
Inc
RETAIL - Catalog & Mail Order Houses |
$20.87 |
8/22/2004 |
$19.47 |
+7.19% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Featured in a special report on 8/22. Steady uptrend until
recent pullback above support. |
CCJ
- NYSE
Cameco Corp
METALS & MINING - Industrial Metals & Minerals |
$79.24 |
8/17/2004 |
$63.08 |
+25.62% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Marked noteworthy on a BV
BO on 8/17 has maintained a steep uptrend since. Nice example. |
GGC
- NYSE
Georgia Gulf
Corp
CHEMICALS - Synthetics |
$44.59 |
8/16/2004 |
$36.15 |
+23.35% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Slight gain
after first featured, then consolidated building a base before blasting too
new highs on very heavy volume. |
JOYG
- NASDAQ
Joy Global Inc
MANUFACTURING - Farm & Construction Machinery |
$34.38 |
8/3/2004 |
$31.09 |
+10.58% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Immediately broke down
after highlighted yet quickly recovered, based, then got in an uptrend and
ended month with a new high close. |
AMMD
- NASDAQ
American Med
Systms Hldg
HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Appliances & Equipment |
$36.27 |
8/1/2004 |
$31.82 |
+13.98% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Highlighted in the Aug
CANSLIM.net News. Immediately broke below 50 DMA but held at chart support,
then recovered and now sits at a new high close. |
BMHC
- NASDAQ
Building
Materials Hldg
RETAIL - Home Improvement Stores |
$27.52 |
7/29/2004 |
$19.85 |
+38.64% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Has produced good gains
since featured and remains in good uptrend and now sits near all time highs. |
OMM
- NYSE
O M I Corp
TRANSPORTATION - Shipping |
$16.02 |
7/28/2004 |
$12.00 |
+33.50% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Initially produced slight
gains since highlighted then pulled back to 50 DMA before advancing to end
month with a new high close. |
ISRG
- NASDAQ
Intuitive
Surgical Inc
HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Appliances & Equipment |
$24.75 |
7/27/2004 |
$20.68 |
+19.68% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Highlighted on BV BO on
7/27 and kept in uptrend until recently. Now sits above 50 DMA. |
TK
- NYSE
Teekay Shipping
Co
TRANSPORTATION - Shipping |
$43.09 |
6/21/2004 |
$37.14 |
+16.02% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
First highlighted on gap
open and BV BO on 6/21. Spent some time just under 50 DMA but held at chart
support near $34-35. Now sits 29 cents off a new high close. |
UIC
- NYSE
United
Industrial Corp
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE - Aerospace/Defense Products & S |
$32.89 |
6/21/2004 |
$23.25 |
+41.46% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
First based for some time
since highlighted then broke out on above average volume. Dipped to 50 DMA
before reversing and sprinting up. |
UPL
- AMEX
Ultra Petroleum
Corp
ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas |
$49.05 |
6/16/2004 |
$34.90 |
+40.54% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Good several week uptrend
since highlighted until a break just under 50 DMA. Found support right near
April highs and recovered impressively. Now sits just off new highs. |
SWN
- NYSE
Southwestern
Energy Co
ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas |
$41.99 |
6/16/2004 |
$27.88 |
+50.61% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
First highlighted on BV BO
on 6/16 at $27.88, based then moved up and ends month just off of all time
highs near $42. Nice example. |
AH
- NYSE
Armor Holdings
Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Security & Protection Services |
$41.61 |
6/1/2004 |
$37.40 |
+11.26% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Immediately broke down
after highlighted as company announced an additional stock offering that
hindered price progress. Noted BV BO on 9/24. Ends month with a new high
close. |
BRY
- NYSE
Berry Petroleum
Co Cl A
ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas |
$36.73 |
5/5/2004 |
$28.62 |
+28.34% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Based for several months
since highlighted until recently moved up. |
FSH
- NYSE
Fisher
Scientific Intl
WHOLESALE - Electronics Wholesale |
$58.33 |
5/2/2004 |
$58.55 |
-0.38% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Never really broke out
since featured. Building a great flat base now. Good ranks from IBD. |
CRDN
- NASDAQ
Ceradyne Inc
MANUFACTURING - Industrial Equipment & Compone |
$43.91 |
4/27/2004 |
$35.53 |
+23.59% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Broke down immediately
after highlighted. Choppy action included a dip under 50 DMA in August.
Acting well since 8/20 gap up BV BO. Ends month with a new high close. |
VIP
- NYSE
Vimpel
Communications
TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Wireless Communications |
$108.80 |
3/1/2004 |
$37.36 |
+191.22% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Featured in the March '03
issue of CANSLIM.net News at $37.36. Closed month equaling its best ever
closing high of $108.80. |
DECK
- NASDAQ
Deckers Outdoor
Corp
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES - Textile - Apparel Footwear & A |
$34.00 |
2/26/2004 |
$26.44 |
+28.59% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
First highlighted on BV BO
on 2/26/04 found support near 50 DMA. Public offering on 5/13 hindered price
progress for a while. Great BV BO on 9/07/04. Found support at 50 DMA then
had a very impressive day today. |
PETD
- NASDAQ
Petroleum Dev
Corp
ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas |
$43.82 |
2/25/2004 |
$26.60 |
+64.74% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
First highlighted on 2/25
with a BV BO. Broke under 50 DMA and proceeded to build a 7-month base
before another BV BO on 9/02/04. Ends month with a new high close. |
HANS
- NASDAQ
Hansen Natural
Corp
FOOD & BEVERAGE - Beverages - Soft Drinks |
$24.12 |
2/1/2004 |
$9.00 |
+168.00% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Has produced a great gain
since featured. Basing above 50 DMA on light volume now. |
RIMM
- NASDAQ
Research In
Motion Ltd
TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Diversified Communication Serv |
$76.34 |
12/1/2003 |
$45.69 |
+67.08% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Huge gaps up on 12/23/03,
5/19/04 and 6/30/04 since featured. Impressive gain since featured. |
PKZ
- NYSE
Petrokazakhstan
Inc Cl A
ENERGY - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services |
$34.27 |
4/3/2001 |
$26.76 |
+28.06% |
Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports |
Initially did not work out
and broke below 50 DMA on 4/28. Acting well since 7/29 BV BO. Great volume
behind most recent breakout and now sitting just off new highs. |
L= Leader | ET =
Extended | BO = Break Out (new) | BV = Big Volume
NC = No Comment | F = Fundamentals
C = Current Quarterly Earnings Per Share | A = Annual Earnings Per Share
S = Shares Outstanding
| I = Institutional Ownership
|
|
SPECIAL |
ARTICLE |
|
|
Buying Quality Stocks in Today's Market: Pullbacks Versus
21-Day New Highs and 21-Day New Lows
I’ve written here about cycles in the market, i.e., market patterns that appear
often enough to be judged statistically significant. For example, the
Automotive, Health Services, and Aerospace Industry Groups were shown last month
to provide the best performance of the 31 groups in the
September-to-December time frame over the last four years. Here, I want to
contrast three chart patterns that are routinely used to enter long positions in
short-term trades. I think you’ll be surprised at the results.
Larry Connors and Conor Sen wrote an important book
detailing the importance of chart patterns, “How Markets Really Work: A
Quantitative Guide to Stock Market Behavior”. I received my copy just before
hurricane Ivan arrived and was so fascinated by the subject that I finished it
that evening, storm and all. It presents 15 years of historical data
(1/1/89 through 12/31/03) refuting much of what passes for "common market
truisms." These authors looked at several market criteria (new 5 and 10-day
highs and lows, the impact of being above or below the 200-day moving average,
multiple day pullbacks, and others) to evaluate how each impacted one day
through one week returns for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 cash markets. Most of
what they found went against our dearly held market beliefs.
For example, during this period there were 947
10-day highs in the S&P. Buying the close of a new 10-day high then selling one
week later returned 0.0% on average with 53.43% of the trades
being profitable. Not too impressive, since the average 5-day return
(irrespective of whether a new 10-day high had been made or not) was +0.21%.
Contrast this behavior with buying a 10-day low then selling one week later.
This strategy returned 0.56% on average with 333 (of 557)
profitable trades (almost three times the unrestricted average 5-day return).
The message: Buying strength hasn't worked as well as buying weakness! If one
buys the 10-day low but requires the S&P 500 cash index to be above its 200-day
moving average, the average return increases to +0.66% with a 66.43%
win rate (190 winners of 286 occurrences). The authors put it this
way: "...the greater opportunity and edge lies in being a buyer as the market
makes a new short-term low versus buying when it makes a new high."

Following this theme, I tested three common
patterns used for entering long positions in individual stocks: three or more
day pullbacks, new 21-day highs (breakouts), and new 21-day lows (bottom
fishing). Chart 1 shows examples of each for ARO as they occurred over a
two-month period in 2003. To validate this study, I studied these three patterns
for a group of fundamentally sound stocks (9/24/04 IBD 100) with earnings and
analysts’ rankings revision fuel (Zacks rankings of 1 or 2) and value left in
price (two year PEG ratios less than 1.25): 36 stocks shown in
Table I were evaluated over the 294-day period between 7/30/03 and 9/28/04
(10,584 test days).
For the pullback, three or more lower highs were
followed by a reversal candle. To limit purchases to stocks in up trends, the
50-day moving average was required to be rising over the last six days, and the
20-day moving average to be greater than its 50-day. When these conditions were
met, a long position was entered then exited at the close five days later.
Similarly, for the 21-day high, a position was
entered when today’s price exceeded the high of the last 20 days, again, when
the 50-day moving average was rising over the last six days, and the 20-day
moving average had to be greater than its 50. When these conditions were met, a
long position was entered then exited at the close five days later.
Finally, for the 21-day low, a new position was
taken today when price exceeded the high of yesterday’s new 21-day low, this
time with no additional conditions. And again, the position was exited at the
close five days later.

Table 1
Table I provides results for each of the 36
stocks over the 294-day period. AMED, for example, had 16 pullbacks
meeting the required conditions and an average resultant five-day gain of
+3.0% (10 with positive gains and 6 with losses); AMED had
33 instances of making new 21-day highs and an average five-day gain of
+3.89%. AMED also had 6 instances of new 21-day lows and an average gain of
+5.58%. Contrast these returns with the average 5-day gain (+2.29%)
earned from the control condition, i.e., from buying each occurrence where
today’s price exceeded yesterday’s high and holding for five days.
For these stocks, the average 5-day gain for the
control condition was +1.27%, as these were quality stocks performing in
both bullish and bearish phases of the market. Limiting buys to pullbacks
increased returns to +1.84% (1.45x the control), to new 21-day highs
increased returns to +1.38% (1.09x the control), to new 21-day lows
increased returns to +2.59% (2.04x the control). Clearly, in this
market, buying the new 21-day lows for a week-long trade was a superior strategy
to either buying pullbacks or buying breakouts. These results are consistent
with Connor’s findings for 15 years of S&P data. While significantly longer
holding periods lessens the importance of an entry strategy, the strategy of
buying 21-day lows reduces short-term risk and provides better risk/reward
limits.
- Richard W. Miller,
Ph.D.
|
Richard Miller, Ph. D - Statistics
professional and serious trader with years of
technical analysis-based trading. He currently
manages six different portfolios. He maintains his
own of stock analysis website. To learn more visit
TripleScreenMethod.com or email him directly at
rwmill@yahoo.com |
|
|
MARKET |
SENSE |
|
|
|
Kids are Curious About
Money, Business, and Investing
Soraya
Nasrallah, Registered Representative,
Source Capital Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC
“What does
investing mean?” yelled the six-year-old son of
an acquaintance of mine. I was at a local café
talking with friends about my new book, “InvestorWiz”.
During the conversation a variety of
investment-related words came up which prompted
the boy’s curiosity and subsequent interruption.
I don’t know much
about children, but this boy must have been
quite smart to have picked up on this word.
Sadly, the father’s response was a less then
enthusiastic, “You’ll learn about that much
later”. I should have stopped him and said,
“Let’s teach him now!” Of course, that might not
have been the best time for a lesson in business
and investing, but the young man’s curiosity
motivated me to create three fun learning
activities that can be used to teach kids about
money and business. Please note that this is
best for children who have at least grasped the
concept of money and have the appropriate focus
and patience.
The Candy
Bag Sample: Actually, my mom recommended
this one. With your child, take a trip to the
local food store with a pad and pen. Buy a
favorite bag of candy. Let your youngster help
out by asking him or her to read and write
down the name of the item and original price.
When you’ve returned home, count the amount of
candy in the bag (inventory!). Here’s the crux
of the lesson: show your child that by selling
each individual piece (to another family
member or neighbor) for a certain price he or
she will end up with more money than the
original cost of the whole bag of candy. Let
them make the calculation of the difference
between what was spent and what was brought
in, figuring out the actual profit. By having
the youngster write up the calculations and
present those figures creatively (break out
the construction paper, colored markers,
glitter, etc.), you can easily give them a
sense of pride and accomplishment. As always,
make them feel proud of their accomplishment!
Of course, eating some of the candy is a nice
prize at the end of the project.
Lemonade
Stand: This activity is realistic and
quite fun, and it could actually be
profitable. Take your kid(s) to the store and
let them have the calculator and show them how
to add the cost of all items while selecting
all the lemonade ingredients from a list you
have both made. Don’t worry about the tax
unless they are truly ready for it. It’s very
important that everyone involved carefully
record the money spent. The best solution is
to have a color board where all the figures
can be prominently posted. Setting up a
creative and colorful lemonade stand is very
important so your kids can really get into it!
There are some good lessons in marketing and
retail sales involved, too. Have the kids
track the money that is coming in so that at
the end they can add up the sales revenues and
then figure out how close they are to actually
making a profit. Even if there are no profits,
calculating the losses is an equally important
lesson. Make sure that there is a nice reward
that will motivate them to sell their lemonade
and make more money than what was spent!
Bake That
Cookie!: Baking cookies for fun, profit,
and learning. Making it fun for the children
is very important. Start this project with a
good cookie recipe. Then you and your kids can
go shopping and write down the price of each
item. Let them have the calculator so that
they can start adding the price of all the
needed items. Include some tissue paper and
ribbons so that the cookies can be packaged
nicely. These nicely wrapped baked goodies can
be sold to friends and neighbors or even
better, sold at a bake sale. This is a great
activity for a group of kids in the
neighborhood. When they’ve sold the cookies,
have the participants calculate the profit.
This is also a good time to calculate the loss
for prematurely eaten cookies. Remember to
give them an extra incentive or prize that was
promised for their work in turning a profit!
If they concentrate on that reward, they will
be more willing to do the work! Happy Baking!
For a great
cookie recipe, I turned to my good friend,
Cindy. She is a professional pastry chef who has
worked in some nationally-known restaurants. She
also has her own cookbook coming out. If you
want this recipe, email her at
dessertgirl21@yahoo.com.
Studies have
found that American kids are woefully lacking
when it comes to knowledge about money and
business. Engaging your children in business and
money matters early in life can give them a huge
advantage as they get older. While the
activities above are more about business, the
lessons learned are an outstanding introduction
to the more sophisticated lessons of stocks and
investing. Once your kids grasp the concepts of
simple capitalism and business, their own
curiosity might lead them to ask more questions
about investing.
|
I
am introducing my NEW educational
investment course for novice investors -
InvestorWiz
-
Ten easy
chapters that help you understand the
markets, the economy, fundamental
and technical analysis, and types of
brokerage accounts.
-
Simple
language, pictures, samples, homework,
and answers page in each chapter.
-
Understand
what your financial advisor is doing for
you!
-
Help
yourself to become financially
independent through good investing.
Visit
www.Investorwiz.com to learn more! |
Soraya
Nasrallah, obtained her Series 7 license in 1992, and
has served in the capacity of Sales Assistant, Head of
Operations Department, and Stockbroker. Contact Soraya Nasrallah via email at
snasrallah@sourcegrp.com or by phone at (954)785-1990 for assistance you with your portfolio. She will be pleased to offer ideas that suit your investment needs, and she can help you achieve the gains you have been searching for.
Miss Nasrallah has just introduced a new educational program
called
InvestorWiz! specifically created for
teenagers and novice investors, incorporating stock
market basics with CANSLIM in a colorful and picturesque
format. It is the perfect gift for those who just
don’t know much about the world of stocks and
investing!
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a
NASD/SIPC member firm.
|
|
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SPECIAL |
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CANSLIM – An Investing and Trading Strategy
Editors Note: While many of our subscribers are well-versed in
the CANSLIM method of investing, we think it is important to include the
occasional article on CANSLIM basics for educational purposes. This is a helpful
review for our new subscribers who may not have as much familiarity with the
system.
There are a wide variety of trading and investing strategies.
These strategies can be based on one or more of the vast array of factors that
cause the price of a stock to go up or down. Any good investment strategy should
be based on years of stock market analysis and it should always rely on thorough
back-testing to ensure that the strategy works and that there are hard numbers
to back it up.
Finding patterns through decades of market data is a daunting
task but the rewards can be substantial. When William J. O’Neil was a stock
broker, he spent a lot of time doing just that – looking through reams of
historical data to find patterns. O’Neil found one remarkable trend: stocks that
go up tend to keep going up and that stocks that go down tend to keep going
down. In digging deeper into this trend he also found a variety of other factors
– some based on the stock’s fundamentals, some based on the stock’s technicals –
that have a serious impact on the stock’s price performance.
With all of this stock performance analysis, O’Neil developed an
investment method that could be used consistently and successfully over time. He
dubbed this method “CANSLIM”, based on the acronym he created for the factors
that go into the stock analysis. He also presented this investment strategy in
the very popular book “How to Make Money in Stocks”, the 3rd edition of this
book published in 2002.
Below is the CANSLIM acronym. Some of the descriptive text comes
directly from “How to Make Money in Stocks”, 3rd edition.
C = Current quarterly earnings per share.
The earnings in the latest quarterly financials
reported should be up a minimum of 25% over the year earlier. Earnings
per share must be growing. Look in Investor’s Business Daily for EPS ranks that
are 80+.
A = Annual earnings per share.
There should be meaningful growth over the last five
years. The annual compounded growth rate of earnings in the superior firms
should be from 15% to 50%, or even more, per year.
N = New product/management/price high.
Usually it is a new product or service that causes the big earnings
acceleration. New price highs on heavy trading volume signaled the right time to
buy.
S = Supply/Demand: Small Cap + Volume
The price of a stock with 400 million shares
outstanding is much harder to move up because of the large supply of stock
available. Yet, if a company has only 5 or 10 million shares
outstanding, a reasonable amount of buying can push the price up rapidly. The
overwhelming majority of big winners identified by O’Neil’s study had 25
million shares or fewer outstanding.
L = Leader or Laggard?
The stock should be a leader in the overall market and
within its group. As well, the group should be leader in the overall market.
Choose stocks with high relative strength ranks 80+.
I = Institutional Sponsorship
It takes big demand to move a stock significantly
higher in price. Institutional buyers are the most powerful source. You don't
need a large number of institutional owners, but at least a few top performing
mutual funds must own an interest.
M = Market Direction
The performance of the overall market can greatly
impact the performance of even the best stock, and 3 out of 4
stocks follow the general market direction. The best way to analyze the overall
market is to follow and understand every day what the general averages are
doing.
As well as the analyzing the factors that make up the CANSLIM
acronym, O’Neil has come up with some additional guidelines and rules that go
into the overall CANSLIM investment strategy. Two of these rules and guidelines
are (1) protect your investment account and (2) never get emotional.
Protecting your investment account means taking out some loss
insurance in the form of an 8% stop loss order when you’ve bought a stock
properly. If the stock drops 8%, it is automatically sold. Recovering
from losses requires increasingly significant percentage gains as the size of
your losses increase. If a stock goes down 50%, the price will have to double in
order to recover those losses. William O’Neil says in 24 Essential Lessons for
Investment Success, “How often do you buy stocks that double in price?”
Not getting emotional means using a system rather than emotional
hunches or ideas. Using a system means utilizing statistical research and proper
analysis to appropriately learn from success and failure. It means admitting to
mistakes and taking corrective action regarding future trading decisions. Not
being emotional can also help protect your investment account when it comes time
for selling the stocks you’ve bought.
All of these rules and guidelines are described in more detail in
O’Neil’s book, “24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success”, published in 2000.
We strongly recommend that anyone who is interested in the CANSLIM method of
investing read “How to Make Money in Stocks” and also subscribe to the
Investor’s Business Daily.
The CANSLIM method of investing is a combination of fundamental
and technical analysis used to find stocks that are poised for a big rise in
price on heavy volume. This rise in price on heavy volume is called a “breakout”
when it clears a base or sideways pattern at least 6 weeks in duration.
The rise in price and the heavy volume (minimum guideline is 50%+ above
its average daily volume) is the result of institutional investors – mutual
funds, pension funds, hedge funds, etc – buying the stock in large amounts. The
opposite, a “breakdown” can happen when institutions sell large amounts of
shares in a stock. If you see high volume behind considerable declines in price,
take it as a hint institutional owners are unloading and consider it a sell
signal when it breaks below a prior support level, upward trend line or key
moving averages.
While the CANSLIM method is fairly straightforward, the challenge
lies in finding all the various bits of statistical financial information that
are necessary to complete a proper CANSLIM analysis of a stock and the overall
markets. The Investor’s Business Daily and their website,
www.investors.com is an
excellent source. There are also some free resources available through Zacks and
Yahoo. Here at CANSLIM.net, we use a wide variety of sources so our subscribers
don’t have to spend hours and hours tracking down stocks and doing analysis. We
save you time and make it easier for you to profit from the most ideal CANSLIM
winners.
The CANSLIM method of investing has proven to be a very
successful approach. Good CANSLIM stocks rise more than the market averages
during bull markets and also maintain their value during bear markets. Hundreds
of thousands of individual investors follow CANSLIM, and the American
Association of Individual Investors performed a five year study on the system
and found that "CANSLIM has been one of the most consistent and
strongest-performing [stock selection] screens during both bull and bear
markets."
- Andrew C. Hansen |
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EDITOR'S |
LETTER
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So Much for So Little
In the coming months we will be sending out renewal
messages because we had a major surge in CANSLIM.net
News ($79 per year – 12 monthly issues)
subscription sales starting in September of last year.
Subscribers who purchased a one-year subscription to
CANSLIM.net News were at the time given a full
CANSLIM.net StockNews membership at the price of our
monthly newsletter alone. Existing customers now
qualify for the discounted annual renewal price of
$179 for a full 1-year CANSLIM.net
StockNews membership.
Naturally, there have
been questions regarding what some folks are
considering as a price increase of greater than 100%.
The CANSLIM.net StockNews membership includes much
more than the monthly CANSLIM.net News issue - the
most important additions being two daily reports, plus
occasional - but very timely - stock bulletins, stock
alert reports, and other special reports.
Our CANSLIM.net Mid-Day
BreakOuts Report is an exceptionally valuable report
that shows breakouts as they are happening during the
trading day. Producing this report takes quite a lot
of effort in an extremely short period of time. Once
we complete the software screen of our Leaders List,
our experts review each and every stock to complete a
brief, but very detailed analysis for the “notes”
section of the break outs list table. From noon until
that report goes out is a very hectic time here at the
CANSLIM.net offices!
The CANSLIM.net
After-Market Update comes out after the market closes.
In that report our “Featured Stock Update” section
follows the stocks CANSLIM.net StockNews members have
seen recently featured in the monthly newsletter or
occasional stock bulletins and stock alert reports. We
also give expanded market commentary – including our
“Industry Group Watch” section.
When we create these
two daily reports, we are basically creating two daily
newspapers. It is a challenging task that takes
serious effort and no small amount of resources. We
also apply these resources to our Stock Bulletins,
Stock Alert Reports, and other special reports. Our
most recent special report was released on August 22
of this year (here). So far in 2004, we have produced
13 Stock Bulletins, 1 Stock Alert
Report, and a Special Report, and there are three
months still remaining in the year!
Renew today and make a
commitment to becoming a more successful investor
using time-tested strategies. While helping yourself,
renewing you will also be helping CANSLIM.net to
continue to improve our services. We’ve added a lot in
recent years, and all of our tools are designed to
save you time and increase your odds of investing
success. The actual monthly rate is quite modest, and
your continued membership is important! With the
renewal discount a 1-year CANSLIM.net StockNews
subscription equates to less than $15 each
month. Many Internet-based investment services and
financial newsletters charge double, triple that
amount, and more.
If you decide to renew
early you will not lose any months, we simply add the
term of your renewal subscription to the end of your
current CANSLIM.net StockNews subscription. To renew
now and take advantage of the special renewal
discount, click
here. Feel free to call us at 1-800-965-8307 if
you have questions.
Also, if you are
interested in receiving only the 12 monthly
issues of CANSLIM.net News and nothing else, please
let us know. While we are not presently offering the
monthly newsletter by itself, we will do whatever we
can to accommodate your needs. Keeping every one of
you onboard as a happy and loyal subscriber is a
CANSLIM.net priority.
Andrew C. Hansen
Editor, CANSLIM.net
editor@canslim.net
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Comments contained in the body of this report are technical
opinions only and are not necessarily those of CANSLIM.net.
The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to
be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness
cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may
effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any
recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities
mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any
recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for
all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or
solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of
any securities. This is an unsolicited opinion, and
CANSLIM.net has not been compensated in any way by the
company(s) mentioned in this report.
CAN SLIM
(written here as "CANSLIM" or "Canslim:) is a registered trademark of William O'Neil + Co.
CANSLIM.net is not owned nor affiliated with William
O'Neil + Co. or any of their subsidiaries including The
Investor's Business Daily newspaper. |
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