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MARKET |
CONDITIONS |
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October Proves a Winner - Trend Looks Bullish, But Watch for Any Violation
By Andrew Hansen, Editor, CANSLIM.net
News
Historically,
October has been a rather bleak time for the markets. Events in 1929 and 1987
are two calamitous examples that highlight the month’s disturbing past. However,
this October was different. The Dow ended up more than 5% and the Nasdaq
was up more than 8%. For the year, the gains are far more striking, with
the Dow up more than 17% and the Nasdaq up a startling 45%. So the
bulls have been running this year.
The
spectacular rise (over 7%) of the third quarter gross domestic product
(GDP) was a very pleasant surprise to Wall Street and economic analysts. Our economy is
certainly growing, and the Fed wants to keep it that way, so the policy makers will keep
interest rates low for a “considerable time”. Other good economic news has
also boosted optimism – initial jobless claims are at an 8-month low. A
reported 40,000
jobs were added to payrolls in October, down from the 57,000 in
September.
Knowing what happened from January to
October of 2002 (rather recent history) makes the challenge of making firm predictions regarding market advances or
declines a big one. The markets were absolutely pummeled during that
period – with the Dow dropping over 28% and the Nasdaq shedding over 44% (see blue lines
on the charts). This was only a year ago, and investors are still understandably
gun shy and concerned about a potentially severe bearish trend in the near future.
Mercifully,
November and December are historically good months. The “Santa Claus Rally”
is an historic precedent that can usually be relied upon to produce some gains. These
last two
months are when consumer spending rises, factories shift into overdrive (elves
don’t really make consumer goods), and mutual funds tend to increase their
inventory of equities. There were nice gains in late-October and November last year,
however many may recall the big bad bears' mauling of Wall Street last
December. And there is hope that a year-end rally of some sort could bring
smiles to good little traders this year, however long such a rally might
last.
As
the “M” in CANSLIM states, Market Direction is important. Last year at this
time, buyers were in seemingly short supply and there was very little positive economic
news flowing in, just
the tentative whispers of a few optimistic economists. In contrast with a year
ago, the
general direction of the market for the intermediate term has been up. Recent economic news has re-affirmed
that we are more clearly in a recovery from the most recent recession.
Before
we start dancing in the streets, caution must be exercised because the overall
market and economic picture is not without some noticeable weaknesses:
Economic
news – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
This
recovery isn’t a 100% done deal, and isn't likely to be sustainable unless there is a turnaround in the job
market. Our last economic recovery was labeled the “jobless” recovery. This economic
recovery has been called the “job loss” recovery. Sure, the hemorrhaging of jobs
has slowed considerably in the past few months, but job creation has been thin to
almost non-existent. The Conference Board's help-wanted index shows job opening
ads have fallen in eight of nine regions in the past three months. Ongoing
claims for unemployment benefits have stayed stubbornly high. Every
investor should be (and thanks to most of the news media they will be) watching for signs of weakness
or improvement in the unemployment numbers.
As the markets are up so much for the year, we are also vulnerable for a major sell-off or even a
full-blown correction. The vulnerability to any selling pressure will likely be
the result of a combination of weak unemployment numbers and the news concerning
overall
unemployment, initial jobless claims, or job creation.
Market
Exhaustion – Volume, Volume, Volume
Buyers
are showing some signs of exhaustion. When the Commerce Department released the good GDP
news on October 30th, the markets went up immediately. But later that day
stocks came back down, and it ended as a rather lackluster trading day. This is just one of several signs
that we might be reaching a market top, while IBD has noted several distribution
days on Nasdaq recently as well. Trading volume behind the recent gains have
lacked the kind of punch we'd prefer to see. So, if a sell-off starts and
volume totals go up, be sure to take a more defensive stance. It may mark the beginning
of a significant sell-off. Both the Dow and Nasdaq have been finding
persistent support at their
50-day moving averages since April of this year and maintained an upward trend (see green line on charts).
Should they violate that support on big volume, you'd be advised to watch out
and protect whatever interest in equities you may own.
|
Index
|
Support
(+/-) |
Resistance
(+/-) |
|
Dow |
9,500 |
10,350 |
|
Nasdaq |
1,850 |
2,100 |
|
S&P
500 |
1,015 |
1,075 |
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MARKETS |
LEADING |
GROUPS |
|
The purpose of this
section is simply to make sure that you are familiar
with the pace setters in each of these top-ranked
groups at the present time. The symbols of
companies listed should not be considered specific buy
recommendations, nor should you assume that all of the
stocks listed are proper CANSLIM-based choices. Know
that your chances will be better by choosing a leading
stock that meets the CANSLIM guidelines and is in a
leading industry group, or essentially, one that has
plenty of company or that is among several
strong-performing peers. So, make yourself familiar
with the list of the top performing industry groups
and the leading stocks below.
|
1 |
Telecom-Equipment |
6 |
Telecom-Wireless
Equip |
|
| |
SEAC, HRS, INTV,
ADTN, CCBL |
CMTL, QCOM, GRMN, RIMM, SWIR |
|
2 |
Retail/Whlsle-Cmptr/Cell |
7 |
Telecom-Wireless
Svcs |
|
| |
SCSC, CELL, NSIT,
CDWC, CLST |
NIHD, WFII,
VIP, MBT, AMX |
|
3 |
Elec-Semiconductor
Mfg |
8 |
Computer-Networking |
|
| |
MRVL,
LEXR, SNDK, OIIM, BRCM |
QLGC, RDWR, AVCT,
FDRY, ELX |
|
4 |
Elec-Contract
Mfg |
9 |
Computer-Manufacturers |
|
| |
NTE, SANM, TTMI,
BHE, JBL |
CRAY, DELL, HPQ,
NWRE, AAPL |
|
5 |
Elec-Semiconductor Equip |
10 |
Internet-Content |
|
| |
UTEK, AUGT, ASML,
LRCX, BRKS |
YHOO, SINA, RATE,
SOHU, ASKJ |
|
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INVESTING
FOR |
THE NEW |
MILLENNIUM |
|
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Courage is Boosted When You Use the Proper
Discipline
By
Kenneth J. Gruneisen, Registered Investment Advisor, Source Capital Group,
Inc. Members NASD/SIPC
Halloween has come and gone, and October has
passed without the scary action investors always fear. For the past six months
or more the stock market has been very kind to investors, however, I still talk
with many investors who are afraid to buy stocks.
If you’ve ever suffered while a stock you owned
declined by 50% or more, it is no wonder you’d be afraid of that happening to
you again. Yet with the proper discipline, you should be able to confidently
jump on board the next ideal stock meeting the guidelines preached by O’Neil and
those of us who adhere closely to the CANSLIM criteria.
A key to not being afraid is knowing what you are
going to do in the event your stock goes down. By now, everyone knows that
buying stocks involves the risk of a substantial loss. Sure, big losses are
scary to all of us, but most of us can handle a small loss without it making us
sick of causing us to lose any sleep. As long as you can live with a 7-8% loss
and not be emotionally or financially crushed by the experience, you may have
what it takes to be a very successful investor.
"If a stock you buy isn’t
acting right, don’t let it stir your emotions."
The truth is that buying stocks near their highs
(as O’Neil advises) can still be quite dangerous, even when you’ve done a very
good job of selecting your stocks in accordance with the guidelines. That is not
to say you should start bottom fishing. No, the point is just that you must
realize that stocks that have run up a long way can be still be great prospects,
but they can also be really dangerous. So, even though we want to buy stocks
near their highs, once we put our dollars on the line it is essential to have a
selling discipline and know exactly at what point the stock is going to be sold
should it start deteriorating.
The market’s recent action has been volatile, and
many leading stocks have been whipsawed in recent days and weeks. It is
sometimes hard to believe how quickly a breakout can turn tail and reverse back
into its prior base, or maybe worse. If
a stock you buy isn’t acting right, don’t let it stir your emotions. Stick to
your game plan and eliminate it when it reaches the sell point you determined
earlier. Don’t tough it out. Don’t say to yourself, “I’m in it for the long
term”. And don’t buy more shares in a stock that is breaking down, thinking that
is smart either. Usually it isn’t a good idea to average down. Add to your
winners and cut your losses early, not the other way around.
Considering the present-day scenario, I can only
say that it is somewhat reassuring that so many investors and professionals in
the business are talking cautiously about the market. IBD has cited three
distribution days for the Nasdaq in the past 12 days, and the market’s choppy
action as reasons to refrain from aggressively buying or using margin. So they
say to only go for the most perfect looking chart patterns, and choose companies
in a leading group with excellent earnings histories. Nothing is really new
about that approach, right? It should always be done this way!
But the fear factor is still there, as always.
What if year-end tax selling prompts a more intense wave of profit taking? You
can probably think of more “what if” possibilities, but don’t let them paralyze
you and keep you from jumping in when it is time to jump in.
You’ll be more confident if you go into any position knowing where
you’ll limit your downside.
Kenneth
J. Gruneisen - A Registered Investment Advisor &
Registered Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group
(Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers personalized
assistance. Investors with a significant financial
interest in equities may inquire about opening an account
by calling 1-888-237-8399 or emailing to
kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com
Comments contained in the body of this report are
technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of
Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable and
accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be
guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect
transactions, including transactions contrary to any
recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities
mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any
recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an
offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the
purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group,
Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm.
Further information is always available upon request. If
you know anyone that may have an interest in receiving
this or any of our other reports, please call our office
locally at (954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399 or email
kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com
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STOCKS TO |
WATCH IN THIS |
NEW MARKET |
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Whipsaw Action in Leading Issues
and Distribution are Prompts for Investors to Adopt a
Cautious Stance
Smart
CANSLIM-oriented investors know that the general
market direction will always weigh heavily on the
outcome of your trading decisions. Many investors may
be inclined to feel emboldened by the fact that we
made it through September and October without a
horrible plunge, and also by the fact that November
and December have a history of being kinder months for
the market. But with due consideration to the recent
whipsaw like action among many leading stocks, and
also noting the distributional trading action that has
included several genuine institutional selling sprees
in the past couple of weeks, we would advise resisting
the urge to buy anything less than perfect. After an
extensive amount of legwork, the following ideas were
the few standout candidates worthy of mention. As
always, we strongly suggest a strict selling
discipline to protect yourself from losses greater
than 7-8%.
|
Magma Design Automation
by
Kenneth J. Gruneisen |
magma-da.com |
|
Ticker Symbol:
LAVA (Nasdaq) |
Industry Group:
Computer Software- design |
Shares Outstanding:
32.2 Million |
|
Price:
$24.23 (at close 10/31/03) |
Day's Volume:
2,478,400 (at close 10/31/03) |
Shares In Float:
23.5 Million |
|
52
Wk High:
$24.57 |
50-Day Avg Vol:
875,600 |
Up/Down Vol Ratio:
1.6 |
|
Pivot Point:
$24.15 (09/04/03 high plus .10) |
Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price:
$25.36 |

Financials |
Message Board |
News |
Chart |
SEC |
Zacks Reports
Profile:
Magma
Design Automation, Inc. provides electronic design
automation (EDA) software that enables chip designers
to meet critical time-to-market objectives, improve
chip performance and handle multi-million gate
designs. Many Computer Software groups are ranked in
the top of IBD's 197 Industry Groups, however the
“design” subheading is admittedly ranked as a middle
of the road group right now. Earnings increases over
the year earlier have been up substantially in the
past four quarterly financial reports (+999%,
+333%, +133%, and +275%). The
number of mutual funds with an ownership interest has
risen from 69 to 104 from Dec ’02 to present.
What to
Look For and Look Out For:
The outlook for LAVA is quite favorable, and it
appears likely to remain on an upward course. Rolling
back into the previous base wouldn’t be considered a
better buying opportunity, but a warning that there is
greater danger of a more significant pullback.
However, for now the stock appears to be an excellent
buy candidate. Provided that it doesn’t reverse and
close back under its most recent significant high
close of $22.02 on 10/13/03, investors can
remain very optimistic about this issue.
Technical Analysis:
LAVA
charged back above its 50-day moving average line and
broke out of an 11-week base after a series of four
consecutive high-volume trading days was capped off by
a gap up on 10/31/03. This lifted it above its pivot
point, suggesting that the stock now appears set on a
course to eventually challenge its all-time highs at
its Dec ’01 peak near $30.
|
American
Healthways Inc.
by
Richard W. Miller |
americanhealthways.com |
|
Ticker Symbol:
AMHC (Nasdaq) |
Industry Group:
Medical/Dental - Services |
Shares Outstanding:
15.7 Million |
|
Price:
$41.45 (at close 10/31/03) |
Day's Volume:1,071,000
(at close 10/31/03) |
Shares In Float:
13.2 Million |
|
52
Wk High:
$46.61 |
50-Day Avg Vol:
303,500 |
Up/Down Vol Ratio:
1.5 |
|
Pivot Point:
$44.60 (10/30/03 high plus .10) |
Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price:
$46.83 |

Financials,
Stock Talk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports
Profile:
American
Healthways, Inc. provides care enhancement and disease
management services to health plans and hospitals. It
supports hospitals and health plans with common human
resources, clinical, marketing and information
technology resources. Its industry group is in the
top 24% of IBD's 197 Industry Groups and has
remained in the top 50 groups for the past six months.
What to
Look For and Look Out For:
The risk/reward looks favorable here, and the next two
year PEG ratios at 1.13 and 0.64 indicate reasonable
value remains in the stock’s price. It has top-notch
ratings from IBD and Zacks which indicate the quality
of its historical and projected earnings/fundamentals,
although a deceleration in its earnings growth rate
over the past four quarterly financial reports (from
130% to 25%) may be a concern. Funds hold 48% of the
floating supply of stock (total shares outstanding
less insider positions and percent held by
management), and the number of funds with an ownership
interest has increased from 63 to 96 over the past
four quarters. Watch for movement to the lower
support (green line), and realize that closing below
this line, especially on increasing volume, would be a
very negative technical “sell signal” and reason to
probably close your position.
Technical Analysis:
AMHC’s
price was knocked down from a range where it faced
some congestion in the past two sessions on below
average volume, slipping just down to a region of
major support (blue line). It remains above its
50-day moving average and the point of previous price
reversals. It is also at the bottom of its Bollinger
Band, and at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level
(determined from the low on 8/7 and the high on
10/13). As seen in its weekly chart, AMHC completed a
year long cup in July, formed a handle on lower volume
through August, then price broke above the cup’s pivot
in September. Projecting forward from the depth of
the cup, it is reasonable to suggest that its price
could climb substantially over the next several
months. The confluence of the bullish Presidential
and six-month cycles should help push AMHC to new
highs soon.
NOTE:
This selection was previously featured in the August
'03 issue's "Stocks to watch in This New
Market" section. To review it CLICK
HERE
|
Finish
Line Inc.
by
Richard W. Miller |
finishline.com |
|
Ticker Symbol:
FINL (Nasdaq) |
Industry Group:
Retail-clothing/shoe |
Shares Outstanding:
23 Million |
|
Price:
$30.62 (at close 10/31/03) |
Day's Volume:
115,900 (at close 10/31/03) |
Shares In Float:
17.9 Million |
|
52
Wk High:
$31.75 |
50-Day Avg Vol:
461,800 |
Up/Down Vol Ratio:
0.9 |
|
Pivot Point:
$31.06 (10/27/03 high plus .10) |
Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price:
$32.61 |

Financials,
Stock Talk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports
Profile:
The
Finish Line, Inc., is a mall-based specialty retailer
of brand name athletic and lifestyle footwear,
activewear and accessories in the United States. As of
April 21, 2003, the Company operated 482 stores in 45
states. Its stores generally carry a selection of
activewear and accessories for men, women and
children, including brand names such as Nike, Adidas,
Reebok, New Balance, K-Swiss, And 1, Timberland,
Asics, Saucony, Converse and Skechers. Its industry
group is in the top 16% of IBD's 197 Industry
Groups and has remained in the top 50 groups for the
past six months. Also, the retail sector
traditionally performs well in the last quarter.
What to
Look For and Look Out For:
High IBD ratings indicate that the company’s
fundamentals are strong. Earnings growth has
increased steadily for the last three quarters (+47%,
+87%, and +115%). The risk/reward looks favorable
with the next two year’s PEG ratios at 0.22 and 0.90
suggesting that excellent value remains. Further,
funds hold 32% of the floating supply of stock, and
quality fund ownership has increased their number from
48 to 93 funds over the past four quarters. Clearing
last week’s pivot point on increasing volume would be
very bullish, while a close below the support level
(green line) on increased volume would probably be a
good cause for exiting the trade.
Technical Analysis:
Its
price has been steadily rising since October ‘02,
punctuated by periodic pullbacks into an area between
the 20- and 50-day moving averages. It recently broke
above a tight three-week trading range where volume
had been relatively light. The next likely areas of
support are the 50-day moving average, and prior
support in the $24.75-25.75 range. Having traced out
a multi-year cup which began in June of ’98, its
recent action has nearly lifted it clear of historic
highs. FINL is currently trading at its top
Bollinger Band, well above its 20-day moving average.
As with any stock that has performed this well over
the past year, it remains susceptible to a
profit-taking pullback to its major moving averages.
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MARKET
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SENSE |
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Employment
Agencies - The Next
Market Leaders?
Article
by Soraya Nasrallah, Registered
Representative, Source Capital Group, Inc.
Members NASD/SIPC
Remember when practically all
Internets, Semiconductors and such were ranked
at the lower end of IBD’s Industry Group
Rankings? Next thing you know, these highly
despised names became the companies that amassed
some of the largest gains in the market this
year. The investors that dared to own these
companies have been rewarded, even though it
flies in the face of our usual CANSLIM logic.
And even though the market has experienced quite
a run since March 2003, I believe that certain
“new economy” companies (in and outside of the
tech sector) will continue to be great holdings
for a much longer-run. It is always important
to study the companies that have a great
possibility of becoming the next leaders in the
market.
As our economy improves, different companies may
exhibit leadership according to the phases in
the economic cycle. Consider the improvement in
the GDP numbers (recently a BIG headline),
diminishing inventories, healthier consumer
spending, low interest rates that allow
individuals and businesses commence new ventures
or expand current ones, and a low dollar helping
to stimulate exports. All are collective
factors that have set a healthy tone for the
creation of new jobs in the near future. Sure,
some companies are still dropping employees, but
the bottom line is that the economy follows a
cycle. Chances are very good that we will see
greater job creation emerging in full-time,
part-time, and most probably, in the temporary
work/staffing arena.
If someone told you in late 2000 or 2001 that
the .com companies were about to be the next
great buys and smart choices for your portfolio,
you probably would not have believed them. But
look at how well many of them have performed in
terms of returns for investor’s portfolios; not
to mention the fact that their industry group
rankings escalated all the way to the top
again! Granted, most of the best winning
examples have posted fantastic earnings
improvements along the way, so their rise has
not been entirely based on speculation. Now,
after the fact, many investors are suddenly
interested in acquiring the .com names for their
portfolios again.
Because the economy is giving us signs of a job
market that has a good possibility of improving
in the near future (I will estimate within 6
to 9 months), I feel that it is probably
wise to study the charts of the companies in the
commercial Services-Staffing Industry.
I
am basing this assumption on the fact that many
of the companies that have tallied the greatest
rates of return in 2003 are companies that
became high-flyers in the late 90’s up to 2000
(Internet and other related companies). After
studying the charts of many leaders during that
time frame, the following are a few companies
that stand out for having shown earnings
acceleration and healthy price/volume action,
yet you may not notice their improving
situations based on some of IBD’s rankings.
 |
Administaff, Inc.(NYSE - ASF)
Since late
April ASF has broken out of a few
well-formed bases on larger than average
volume. While earnings have been going
improving, in the most recent financial
report for the period ended June 30, 2003
they turned around from a negative 10
cents per share in then year earlier, to a
positive eleven cents per share this
year. It has a very
good Accumulation/Distribution
rating in IBD, shares outstanding are
26.6 million, and in recent weeks the
stock has shown gains on numerous above
average volume days. In the past week it
jumped back above its 50-day moving
average line, and on 10/31/03 it gapped up
to new 12-week highs (circled).
|
 |
Robert Half Intl Inc (NYSE
- RHI)
RHI has escalated nicely
since early March, just like a lot of
other stocks in the market. The current
EPS Rating is down the drain, but sales
revenues have been improving gradually,
and earnings turned around from a negative
2 cents per share to positive three
cents per share in the Sept ’03
comparison. This large cap stock had a
nice big gap up day on massive volume on
10/03/03 (circled) and later cleared its
summer highs. It is currently
consolidating on quieter volume and
hovering above the 50-day moving average
line. |
 |
Gevity HR Inc (Nasdaq -
GVHR)
This company has shown
impressive earnings increases of over
100% for the past 4 quarterly
comparisons, with the September ’03 report
of $0.16 versus $0.06 (up
+167%) from the same period one year
earlier. Shares outstanding are small at
18.5 million, and its high ranks
from IBD make it a better match than the
abovementioned ideas for CANSLIM purists.
The stock is presently trading below its
50-day average (circled) and toward the
bottom end of a well-formed 14-week base,
building a nice foundation after rising
substantially since the start of this
year. |
The same way that many of the past leaders in
the tech sector have risen from almost dead, be
watching for the re-emergence of companies that
were once leaders in the commercial
services-staffing industry during the roaring
times. Companies during the past boom may have
been spending much more than they needed to
because of the amount of cash they were able to
burn, so it is always possible that these issues
may not offer the same explosive returns of
their past. However, if you start hearing more
about improvements in the labor market, be
especially sure to keep your eyes on this area.
To all of my readers I say: “Study the chart,
hope for the best and always sell when it is
time.”
Soraya
Nasrallah, obtained her Series 7 license in 1992, and
has served in the capacity of Sales Assistant, Head of
Operations Department, and Stockbroker. Contact Soraya Nasrallah via email at
snasrallah@sourcegrp.com or by phone at (954)785-1990 for assistance you with your portfolio. She will be pleased to offer ideas that suit your investment needs, and she can help you achieve the gains you have been searching for.
Miss Nasrallah has just introduced a new educational program
called StockWiz News! specifically created for
teenagers and novice investors, incorporating stock
market basics with CANSLIM in a colorful and picturesque
format. It is the perfect gift for those who just
don’t know much about the world of stocks and
investing!
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a
NASD/SIPC member firm.
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SPECIAL
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REPORT |
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Cycles in the Market: a Bullish Confluence
Beginning in November by
Richard W. Miller
As
the end of October has come, you should be aware of two important market cycles:
the six-month cycle and the Presidential cycle. Entering November, they reach a
bullish confluence that historically has proved very profitable. As the names
imply, the six-month cycle divides the year into halves, and the Presidential
cycle segregates annual market returns by where they fall in the national
election cycle. Yale Hirsch has written extensively about these and other cycles
in his “Stock Trader’s Almanac.”
For
the Dow, if you had invested $10,000 in 1950 independently in the May 1-to-Oct
31 and Nov 1-to-Apr 30 periods—taking your money out of the market when the
respective six-month period was done—by Oct 24, 2003, you would have only
$9,466 remaining in the first account and $471,355 in the second. Further, you
would have been exposed to far less market risk being out of the market for six
months each year. This contrast is understandable in terms of market liquidity.
During the second period, money flows into the market: most companies end their
fiscal year; mutual funds distribute; Christmas puts money into the economy;
companies pay end-of-the-year bonuses; early in the year, people receive tax
refunds. The bearish period, on the other hand, includes the summer doldrums,
generally a period of lower volume in the market as the institutional
professionals vacation.
For whatever reason, there is a huge difference
in performance between the two periods. My question with these cycles is, “Are
these differences significant?” That is, what is the likelihood that this
distribution of returns could have occurred by chance alone? If the pattern is
likely to occur by chance, then the historical differences can be expected to
bear no relation to future returns. I used a resampling approach to assess the
significance of these differences. Under the assumption that no difference
existed between these two halves of the year, I would expect the distribution of
returns to show no preference for either half-year. Of course, if that were
true, then past trends would not necessarily continue into the future. In the
same way, flipping a fair coin and getting heads ten times in a row, though
admittedly a rare event, does not improve its odds from the 50/50 chance of
getting heads on the next flip.
"During the second period, money flows into the market: most companies end their
fiscal year; mutual funds distribute; Christmas puts money into the economy;
companies pay end-of-the-year bonuses; early in the year, people receive tax
refunds."
The
106 biannual returns were randomly distributed by computer resampling; these
gains were again segregated by the half-year; then their respective six-month
periods summed. Finally, the 53 year biannual sums were compared to the 426%
gain actual obtained in the November-to-April period. Only two times in 100,000 such
random redistributions did a summed return exceed 426%, which shows that the
observed biannual distribution is indeed a rare event; the half-year cycle is
for real, and there are definitely good and bad halves of the year for
investment.
The
second cycle, the Presidential cycle, segregates annual market returns by where
they fall in the national election cycles. From the 1940 Roosevelt cycle through
the 2000 Bush cycle, 16 annual returns of the S&P 500 have summed thusly:
118.9% for election year (next 2004), 63.1% for post-election year (next 2005),
76.6% for midterm year (next 2006), and 263.7% for pre-election year (current
2003),. Further, 12 of 16 years have produced positive returns for the election
year, 8 of 16 for the post-election year, 9 of 16 for the midterm year, and
15
of 15 years for the pre-election year (we’re currently in the 16th).
Clearly, the pre-election year has performed far better than the other three.
And that makes sense as the incumbent party does everything it can to hold
power. But again, there’s the significance question. To be useful, this
distribution must be significantly different from what one might expect form
random redistribution.
As before, a
resampling approach can be used to address the question of significance. After
randomly redistributing these 63 annual returns into four-year cycles 10,000
times, only 50 times did a total return exceed 263.7% for one of the cycle’s
years. Again, this is a very rare event and means that the observed distribution
is very significant. Note: 6,038 times returns exceeded 118.9%, 8,372 times
returns exceeded 76.6%, and 8,814 times returns exceeded 63.1%. The third year
in an election cycle (e.g., 2003) is very bullish for the market while the other
three are significantly less so (and statistically judged equivalent). Come November, we begin a very bullish confluence of these two cycles.


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Richard
Miller, statistics professional and serious
trader with years of technical analysis-based trading. He currently manages six
different portfolios and is the developer of the Triple Screen Method: a
Unique Combination of Fundamentals, Value, and Technical
Analysis - Available
from his website: http://home.att.net/~miller.richard.w.p/index.html
Email
rwmill@yahoo.com
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SPECIAL
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FEATURE |
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A New
Must Read Book; The
Successful Investor
By Dee Hendon,
CANSLIM.net Contributor
Any professional in any field will tell you to stay on
top of your game you must continue to study and
learn. Part of CANSLIM.net’s responsibility is to
direct our readers to the best resources to acquire
the edge necessary to be successful.
The
Successful Investor by William J. O’Neil is worthy of
your time and provides the reader with a concise study
about investing in these current market conditions.
After
reading the book for the second time, I noticed a
change in the placement of the material. Not by
accident, the “M” in CANSLIM, (market
condition or direction) was elevated to the first
chapter. In “How To Make Money In Stocks”, O’Neil’s
highly acclaimed book, the explanation about the
market condition or direction falls in chapter seven,
of part 1. Placing an emphasis on market conditions
early on makes sense because O’Neil attributes most of
a stock’s price movement to the current direction of
the market.
Another stark contrast was the first area of
instruction or explanation in the first chapter. He
covered, how to recognize topping action and
distribution in the market. When you read the
Introduction to the book you’ll understand why.
O’Neil focuses on the money lost in the bear market
not the money made in the preceding bull market. As
most of you know first hand, the individual investor
usually arrives to the dance last. He made the point
that so many people were taken to the cleaners
unnecessarily, and how Investors Business Daily readers
and followers of the CANSLIM discipline were selling
near the top and not the bottom. Recently William
O’Neil was on “Kudlow and Cramer” on CNBC and he said
that if a trading system was 80% right, that is enough
to make the average investor a lot of money (provided
he sells his losers quickly), recognizing that no system is
perfect.
Another important addition to this book is, how and
when to short stocks. In his previous writings this
topic was reserved for the more sophisticated
investor. It provides an excellent method to follow
for making money in down trending markets.
So
why did I want to devote an article to this book, at
this time? Read the first paragraph again.
This book isn’t just a rewrite of other books by
William O’ Neil, and after each chapter you should go
to your charts and see how it applies today.
Study the charts provided here, after you read chapter
one.
WEEKLY S&P
500

WEEKLY
NASDAQ

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EDITOR'S
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ARTICLE
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Timing Your Stock Purchase by
Charles B. Schaap
traderdoc@stockmarketstore.com
Timing your stock
purchase is important. It is not uncommon to buy a
stock and have it drop in price afterwards, taking out
the 8% stop-loss that you set (an 8% stop-loss
is recommended by William J. O’Neil in his book, 24
Essential Lessons for Investment Success). It is
essential to base the timing of your entry on chart
analysis.
One easy approach to
chart analysis involves the use of Moving Averages,
since they provide a measure of the stock’s trend, or
direction. Most investors who plan to own a stock for
months to years (long-term) should first evaluate
their stock in reference to the 200-day moving average
(200 MA). If the stock is above its 200 MA, it is
bullish. If it is below the 200 MA, it is bearish and
should probably be avoided.
We
also want our stock to be above its 50-day moving
average (50 MA), so that the stock is bullish on both
the long and intermediate-term timeframes. When both
the long-term and intermediate-trend moving averages
are trending up at the same time, your chances of
making a profitable entry increase greatly.
An important principle
of price movement is that a stock will rise above its
moving average in a strong up trend, and periodically
drop down to its moving average to gather energy for
the next advance. Buying a stock that is too high
above these important moving averages will likely
result in a loss, even on a stock that appears to be
rising in price.
To avoid this pitfall,
buy the stock when it is at, or near, its 50 MA. This
lessens the risk of being stopped-out, and increases
the chance of a profitable entry. An even better entry
occurs when the stock is near both the 50 MA and 200
MA, such as when the 50 MA is crossing upward through
the 200 MA.
Timing your stock
purchase with moving averages and chart analysis
increases your probability of profit. As a general
guideline, buy near the 50-day moving average. Try to
buy a recognizable pattern, such as a cup-with-handle
or double-bottom.
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Charles B. Schaap
and his wife Candy run a web site that features great gifts for the stock market
enthusiast on your shopping list. ->
www.stockmarketstore.com
Phone: 480.634.8975 Fax: 480.634.8976
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EDITOR'S
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LETTER
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Moving Ahead, Giving Some Back -
October Was a Good Month!
Though
historically October has been a difficult time for the
major indices, October 2003 has proven to be at the
least a decent month for the general markets and
another very good month for CANSLIM.net. We continue
to grow nicely and offer more products and services to
our members. This past month we added the Enhanced
Daily BreakOuts Reports for our paid subscribers, and it
has proven to be a huge success. As you know, we email
these reports directly to you, and many subscribers have
written to tell us how much they like it. We are now
actually creating new market and sector commentary
every day for that report as well as updating you
about stocks recently featured in our reports. We’ve also add new notes for the
stocks listed in the mechanical screen section of that
report. With four members of our editorial staff frantically
working on that each day, it gets pretty busy around
here after the close!
Another addition, we held one of our free seminars
here in the South Florida area. Kenneth
Gruneisen, the site’s founder,
gave an excellent presentation on overall market
conditions and also reviewed
some of the stocks recently featured at CANSLIM.net. We are planning to hold another
seminar in the South Florida area on November 10th.
These meetings are scheduled to be held regularly
(once a month), and we hope to soon be able to webcast
such events over the
internet so that all members can attend
virtually.
We have also been talking to the AAII (American
Association for Independent Investors) to provide
speakers at their regular chapter meetings. AAII
supports the CANSLIM investment approach, and we are
happy to provide CANSLIM experts
to make these educational
presentations whenever possible. The next South Florida seminar and
AAII chapter meetings where we will be giving
presentations will be announced in future
communications to you. We can send a speaker
directly to you, so please let us know of any group of individual
investors, investment clubs, or other large groups
you're involved with who would be interested! Call or email me and I will be
pleased to discuss future possibilities with your further.
November starts the season of giving. At
CANSLIM.net we feel that it is our social responsibility to
give back in some way. Doing the right thing is
important. For the month of November, we will be
giving 5% of our subscription sales revenues through our
website to the American Red Cross. This fine
organization provides a whole range of charitable
services - disaster relief, blood supplies, assistance
to the military and military families, to name just a
few.
So, if
your subscription is about to expire,
or if you are pleased with our service and want to refer
a friend, this month would be a great time to do so! You
will be helping us, yourself or a friend, as
well as helping others by giving back to your
community at a time of year when charity and
assistance count the most.
Finally, a special thanks to all those subscribers who
referred CANSLIM.net to their friends and colleagues.
We are sincerely flattered by such referrals and are
profoundly grateful for all of the CANSLIM.net supporters
who enjoy our service enough to tell others about it. This is
the best marketing money can’t buy. Have a happy and
safe Thanksgiving holiday.
As always, best wishes for your financial success.

James F. Taulman
COO, CANSLIM.net, Inc.
Editor-in-Chief, CANSLIM.net News
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Comments contained in the body of this report are technical
opinions only and are not necessarily those of CANSLIM.net, Inc.
The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to
be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness
cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may
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CANSLIM.net, Inc. has not been compensated in any way by the
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