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"A Vital Source for the CANSLIM Investor" 

Sunday, November 2nd, 2003 | 4:56 PM
NOVEMBER
2003
Volume 6, Issue 11
 

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 NOVEMBER    2003    CONTENTS
October Proves a Winner - Trend Looks Bullish, But Watch for Any Violation
By: Andrew Hansen, Editor
Stocks to Watch in This New Market
LAVAAMHC, FINL
By: CANSLIM.net Research Staff
Courage is Boosted When You Use the Proper Discipline
By: Kenneth J. Gruneisen
Market’s Leading Groups
By: CANSLIM.net News Staff
Employment Agencies - The Next Market Leaders?
By: Soraya Nasrallah
Cycles in the Market: a Bullish Confluence Beginning in November
By: RIc Miller
Letter Form The Editor-in- Chief
By: James Taulman
A New Must Read Book; The Successful Investor
By: Dee Hendon


 

 

 

 
 CURRENT    MARKET    CONDITIONS

October Proves a Winner - Trend Looks Bullish, But Watch for Any Violation
By Andrew Hansen, Editor, CANSLIM.net News

Historically, October has been a rather bleak time for the markets. Events in 1929 and 1987 are two calamitous examples that highlight the month’s disturbing past.  However, this October was different. The Dow ended up more than 5% and the Nasdaq was up more than 8%. For the year, the gains are far more striking, with the Dow up more than 17% and the Nasdaq up a startling 45%. So the bulls have been running this year.

The spectacular rise (over 7%) of the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was a very pleasant surprise to Wall Street and economic analysts. Our economy is certainly growing, and the Fed wants to keep it that way, so the policy makers will keep interest rates low for a “considerable time”. Other good economic news has also boosted optimism – initial jobless claims are at an 8-month low. A reported 40,000 jobs were added to payrolls in October, down from the 57,000 in September.

Knowing what happened from January to October of 2002 (rather recent history) makes the challenge of making firm predictions regarding market advances or declines a big one.   The markets were absolutely pummeled during that period – with the Dow dropping over 28% and the Nasdaq shedding over 44% (see blue lines on the charts). This was only a year ago, and investors are still understandably gun shy and concerned about a potentially severe bearish trend in the near future.

Mercifully, November and December are historically good months. The “Santa Claus Rally” is an historic precedent that can usually be relied upon to produce some gains. These last two months are when consumer spending rises, factories shift into overdrive (elves don’t really make consumer goods), and mutual funds tend to increase their inventory of equities.  There were nice gains in late-October and November last year, however many may recall the big bad bears' mauling of Wall Street last December.  And there is hope that a year-end rally of some sort could bring smiles to good little traders this year, however long such a rally might last.  

As the “M” in CANSLIM states, Market Direction is important. Last year at this time, buyers were in seemingly short supply and there was very little positive economic news flowing in, just the tentative whispers of a few optimistic economists. In contrast with a year ago, the general direction of the market for the intermediate term has been up. Recent economic news has re-affirmed that we are more clearly in a recovery from the most recent recession.

Before we start dancing in the streets, caution must be exercised because the overall market and economic picture is not without some noticeable weaknesses:

Economic news – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
This recovery isn’t a 100% done deal, and isn't likely to be sustainable unless there is a turnaround in the job market. Our last economic recovery was labeled the “jobless” recovery. This economic recovery has been called the “job loss” recovery. Sure, the hemorrhaging of jobs has slowed considerably in the past few months, but job creation has been thin to almost non-existent. The Conference Board's help-wanted index shows job opening ads have fallen in eight of nine regions in the past three months. Ongoing claims for unemployment benefits have stayed stubbornly high. Every investor should be (and thanks to most of the news media they will be) watching for signs of weakness or improvement in the unemployment numbers. 

As the markets are up so much for the year, we are also vulnerable for a major sell-off or even a full-blown correction. The vulnerability to any selling pressure will likely be the result of a combination of weak unemployment numbers and the news concerning overall unemployment, initial jobless claims, or job creation.

Market Exhaustion – Volume, Volume, Volume
Buyers are showing some signs of exhaustion. When the Commerce Department released the good GDP news on October 30th, the markets went up immediately.  But later that day stocks came back down, and it ended as a rather lackluster trading day. This is just one of several signs that we might be reaching a market top, while IBD has noted several distribution days on Nasdaq recently as well. Trading volume behind the recent gains have lacked the kind of punch we'd prefer to see.  So, if a sell-off starts and volume totals go up, be sure to take a more defensive stance.  It may mark the beginning of a significant sell-off.  Both the Dow and Nasdaq have been finding persistent support at their 50-day moving averages since April of this year and maintained an upward trend (see green line on charts). Should they violate that support on big volume, you'd be advised to watch out and protect whatever interest in equities you may own.

Index Support (+/-) Resistance (+/-)
Dow 9,500 10,350
Nasdaq 1,850 2,100
S&P 500 1,015 1,075
 
 
 MARKETS    LEADING    GROUPS
The purpose of this section is simply to make sure that you are familiar with the pace setters in each of these top-ranked groups at the present time.  The symbols of companies listed should not be considered specific buy recommendations, nor should you assume that all of the stocks listed are proper CANSLIM-based choices. Know that your chances will be better by choosing a leading stock that meets the CANSLIM guidelines and is in a leading industry group, or essentially, one that has plenty of company or that is among several strong-performing peers. So, make yourself familiar with the list of the top performing industry groups and the leading stocks below. 
 
1 Telecom-Equipment       6 Telecom-Wireless Equip   
  SEAC, HRS, INTV, ADTN, CCBL CMTL, QCOM, GRMN, RIMM, SWIR
2 Retail/Whlsle-Cmptr/Cell 7 Telecom-Wireless Svcs    
  SCSC, CELL, NSIT, CDWC, CLST NIHD, WFII, VIP, MBT, AMX
3 Elec-Semiconductor Mfg  8 Computer-Networking      
  MRVL, LEXR, SNDK, OIIM, BRCM QLGC, RDWR, AVCT, FDRY, ELX
4 Elec-Contract Mfg       9 Computer-Manufacturers   
  NTE, SANM, TTMI, BHE, JBL CRAY, DELL, HPQ, NWRE, AAPL
5 Elec-Semiconductor Equip 10 Internet-Content         
  UTEK, AUGT, ASML, LRCX, BRKS YHOO, SINA, RATE, SOHU, ASKJ
 
 
INVESTING   FOR    THE   NEW  MILLENNIUM

Courage is Boosted When You Use the Proper Discipline
By Kenneth J. Gruneisen, Registered Investment Advisor, Source Capital Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC

Halloween has come and gone, and October has passed without the scary action investors always fear. For the past six months or more the stock market has been very kind to investors, however, I still talk with many investors who are afraid to buy stocks.

If you’ve ever suffered while a stock you owned declined by 50% or more, it is no wonder you’d be afraid of that happening to you again. Yet with the proper discipline, you should be able to confidently jump on board the next ideal stock meeting the guidelines preached by O’Neil and those of us who adhere closely to the CANSLIM criteria.

A key to not being afraid is knowing what you are going to do in the event your stock goes down. By now, everyone knows that buying stocks involves the risk of a substantial loss. Sure, big losses are scary to all of us, but most of us can handle a small loss without it making us sick of causing us to lose any sleep. As long as you can live with a 7-8% loss and not be emotionally or financially crushed by the experience, you may have what it takes to be a very successful investor.

"If a stock you buy isn’t acting right, don’t let it stir your emotions."

The truth is that buying stocks near their highs (as O’Neil advises) can still be quite dangerous, even when you’ve done a very good job of selecting your stocks in accordance with the guidelines. That is not to say you should start bottom fishing. No, the point is just that you must realize that stocks that have run up a long way can be still be great prospects, but they can also be really dangerous. So, even though we want to buy stocks near their highs, once we put our dollars on the line it is essential to have a selling discipline and know exactly at what point the stock is going to be sold should it start deteriorating.

The market’s recent action has been volatile, and many leading stocks have been whipsawed in recent days and weeks. It is sometimes hard to believe how quickly a breakout can turn tail and reverse back into its prior base, or maybe worse.  If a stock you buy isn’t acting right, don’t let it stir your emotions. Stick to your game plan and eliminate it when it reaches the sell point you determined earlier. Don’t tough it out. Don’t say to yourself, “I’m in it for the long term”. And don’t buy more shares in a stock that is breaking down, thinking that is smart either. Usually it isn’t a good idea to average down. Add to your winners and cut your losses early, not the other way around.

Considering the present-day scenario, I can only say that it is somewhat reassuring that so many investors and professionals in the business are talking cautiously about the market. IBD has cited three distribution days for the Nasdaq in the past 12 days, and the market’s choppy action as reasons to refrain from aggressively buying or using margin. So they say to only go for the most perfect looking chart patterns, and choose companies in a leading group with excellent earnings histories. Nothing is really new about that approach, right?  It should always be done this way!

But the fear factor is still there, as always. What if year-end tax selling prompts a more intense wave of profit taking? You can probably think of more “what if” possibilities, but don’t let them paralyze you and keep you from jumping in when it is time to jump in.  You’ll be more confident if you go into any position knowing where you’ll limit your downside.

 
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - A Registered Investment Advisor & Registered Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group (Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers personalized assistance. Investors with a significant financial interest in equities may inquire about opening an account by calling 1-888-237-8399 or emailing to kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com

Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm.

Further information is always available upon request. If you know anyone that may have an interest in receiving this or any of our other reports, please call our office locally at (954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399 or email kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com
 
STOCKS    TO WATCH   IN   THIS NEW    MARKET
Whipsaw Action in Leading Issues and Distribution are Prompts for Investors to Adopt a Cautious Stance
Smart CANSLIM-oriented investors know that the general market direction will always weigh heavily on the outcome of your trading decisions. Many investors may be inclined to feel emboldened by the fact that we made it through September and October without a horrible plunge, and also by the fact that November and December have a history of being kinder months for the market. But with due consideration to the recent whipsaw like action among many leading stocks, and also noting the distributional trading action that has included several genuine institutional selling sprees in the past couple of weeks, we would advise resisting the urge to buy anything less than perfect. After an extensive amount of legwork, the following ideas were the few standout candidates worthy of mention. As always, we strongly suggest a strict selling discipline to protect yourself from losses greater than 7-8%.
 

Magma Design Automation by Kenneth J. Gruneisen

magma-da.com

Ticker Symbol: LAVA (Nasdaq)

Industry Group: Computer Software- design

Shares Outstanding: 32.2 Million

Price: $24.23 (at close 10/31/03)

Day's Volume: 2,478,400 (at close 10/31/03)

Shares In Float: 23.5 Million

52 Wk High: $24.57

50-Day Avg Vol: 875,600

Up/Down Vol Ratio: 1.6

Pivot Point: $24.15 (09/04/03 high plus .10)

Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $25.36


Financials Message Board News Chart  |  SEC  |  Zacks Reports

Profile: Magma Design Automation, Inc. provides electronic design automation (EDA) software that enables chip designers to meet critical time-to-market objectives, improve chip performance and handle multi-million gate designs.  Many Computer Software groups are ranked in the top of IBD's 197 Industry Groups, however the “design” subheading is admittedly ranked as a middle of the road group right now.  Earnings increases over the year earlier have been up substantially in the past four quarterly financial reports (+999%, +333%, +133%, and +275%).  The number of mutual funds with an ownership interest has risen from 69 to 104 from Dec ’02 to present.

What to Look For and Look Out For:  The outlook for LAVA is quite favorable, and it appears likely to remain on an upward course.  Rolling back into the previous base wouldn’t be considered a better buying opportunity, but a warning that there is greater danger of a more significant pullback.   However, for now the stock appears to be an excellent buy candidate.  Provided that it doesn’t reverse and close back under its most recent significant high close of $22.02 on 10/13/03, investors can remain very optimistic about this issue. 

Technical Analysis:  LAVA charged back above its 50-day moving average line and broke out of an 11-week base after a series of four consecutive high-volume trading days was capped off by a gap up on 10/31/03.  This lifted it above its pivot point, suggesting that the stock now appears set on a course to eventually challenge its all-time highs at its Dec ’01 peak near $30.


 

American Healthways Inc. by Richard W. Miller

americanhealthways.com

Ticker Symbol: AMHC (Nasdaq)

Industry Group: Medical/Dental - Services

Shares Outstanding: 15.7 Million

Price: $41.45 (at close 10/31/03)

Day's Volume:1,071,000 (at close 10/31/03)

Shares In Float: 13.2 Million

52 Wk High: $46.61

50-Day Avg Vol: 303,500

Up/Down Vol Ratio: 1.5

Pivot Point: $44.60 (10/30/03 high plus .10)

Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $46.83


Financials, Stock Talk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports

Profile: American Healthways, Inc. provides care enhancement and disease management services to health plans and hospitals. It supports hospitals and health plans with common human resources, clinical, marketing and information technology resources.  Its industry group is in the top 24% of IBD's 197 Industry Groups and has remained in the top 50 groups for the past six months. 

What to Look For and Look Out For: The risk/reward looks favorable here, and the next two year PEG ratios at 1.13 and 0.64 indicate reasonable value remains in the stock’s price.  It has top-notch ratings from IBD and Zacks which indicate the quality of its historical and projected earnings/fundamentals, although a deceleration in its earnings growth rate over the past four quarterly financial reports (from 130% to 25%) may be a concern. Funds hold 48% of the floating supply of stock (total shares outstanding less insider positions and percent held by management), and the number of funds with an ownership interest has increased from 63 to 96 over the past four quarters.   Watch for movement to the lower support (green line), and realize that closing below this line, especially on increasing volume, would be a very negative technical “sell signal” and reason to probably close your position.

Technical Analysis:  AMHC’s price was knocked down from a range where it faced some congestion in the past two sessions on below average volume, slipping just down to a region of major support (blue line).  It remains above its 50-day moving average and the point of previous price reversals.  It is also at the bottom of its Bollinger Band, and at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level (determined from the low on 8/7 and the high on 10/13).  As seen in its weekly chart, AMHC completed a year long cup in July, formed a handle on lower volume through August, then price broke above the cup’s pivot in September.  Projecting forward from the depth of the cup, it is reasonable to suggest that its price could climb substantially over the next several months.  The confluence of the bullish Presidential and six-month cycles should help push AMHC to new highs soon.

NOTE: This selection was previously featured in the August '03 issue's "Stocks to watch in This New Market" section.  To review it CLICK HERE


 

Finish Line Inc. by Richard W. Miller

finishline.com

Ticker Symbol: FINL (Nasdaq)

Industry Group: Retail-clothing/shoe

Shares Outstanding: 23 Million

Price: $30.62 (at close 10/31/03)

Day's Volume: 115,900 (at close 10/31/03)

Shares In Float: 17.9 Million

52 Wk High: $31.75

50-Day Avg Vol: 461,800

Up/Down Vol Ratio: 0.9

Pivot Point: $31.06 (10/27/03 high plus .10)

Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $32.61


Financials, Stock Talk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports

Profile: The Finish Line, Inc., is a mall-based specialty retailer of brand name athletic and lifestyle footwear, activewear and accessories in the United States. As of April 21, 2003, the Company operated 482 stores in 45 states. Its stores generally carry a selection of activewear and accessories for men, women and children, including brand names such as Nike, Adidas, Reebok, New Balance, K-Swiss, And 1, Timberland, Asics, Saucony, Converse and Skechers.  Its industry group is in the top 16% of IBD's 197 Industry Groups and has remained in the top 50 groups for the past six months.  Also, the retail sector traditionally performs well in the last quarter.  

What to Look For and Look Out For:  High IBD ratings indicate that the company’s fundamentals are strong.  Earnings growth has increased steadily for the last three quarters (+47%, +87%, and +115%).  The risk/reward looks favorable with the next two year’s PEG ratios at 0.22 and 0.90 suggesting that excellent value remains.  Further, funds hold 32% of the floating supply of stock, and quality fund ownership has increased their number from 48 to 93 funds over the past four quarters. Clearing last week’s pivot point on increasing volume would be very bullish, while a close below the support level (green line) on increased volume would probably be a good cause for exiting the trade.

Technical Analysis:  Its price has been steadily rising since October ‘02, punctuated by periodic pullbacks into an area between the 20- and 50-day moving averages. It recently broke above a tight three-week trading range where volume had been relatively light.  The next likely areas of support are the 50-day moving average, and prior support in the $24.75-25.75 range.  Having traced out a multi-year cup which began in June of ’98, its recent action has nearly lifted it clear of historic highs.   FINL is currently trading at its top Bollinger Band, well above its 20-day moving average.  As with any stock that has performed this well over the past year, it remains susceptible to a profit-taking pullback to its major moving averages.


 
 
MARKET   SENSE            
Employment Agencies - The Next Market Leaders?
Article by Soraya Nasrallah, Registered Representative, Source Capital Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC 

Remember when practically all Internets, Semiconductors and such were ranked at the lower end of IBD’s Industry Group Rankings? Next thing you know, these highly despised names became the companies that amassed some of the largest gains in the market this year.  The investors that dared to own these companies have been rewarded, even though it flies in the face of our usual CANSLIM logic.  And even though the market has experienced quite a run since March 2003, I believe that certain “new economy” companies (in and outside of the tech sector) will continue to be great holdings for a much longer-run.  It is always important to study the companies that have a great possibility of becoming the next leaders in the market.

As our economy improves, different companies may exhibit leadership according to the phases in the economic cycle. Consider the improvement in the GDP numbers (recently a BIG headline), diminishing inventories, healthier consumer spending, low interest rates that allow individuals and businesses commence new ventures or expand current ones, and a low dollar helping to stimulate exports.  All are collective factors that have set a healthy tone for the creation of new jobs in the near future.  Sure, some companies are still dropping employees, but the bottom line is that the economy follows a cycle. Chances are very good that we will see greater job creation emerging in full-time, part-time, and most probably, in the temporary work/staffing arena.

If someone told you in late 2000 or 2001 that the .com companies were about to be the next great buys and smart choices for your portfolio, you probably would not have believed them.  But look at how well many of them have performed in terms of returns for investor’s portfolios; not to mention the fact that their industry group rankings escalated all the way to the top again!  Granted, most of the best winning examples have posted fantastic earnings improvements along the way, so their rise has not been entirely based on speculation. Now, after the fact, many investors are suddenly interested in acquiring the .com names for their portfolios again.

Because the economy is giving us signs of a job market that has a good possibility of improving in the near future (I will estimate within 6 to 9 months), I feel that it is probably wise to study the charts of the companies in the commercial Services-Staffing Industry.

I am basing this assumption on the fact that many of the companies that have tallied the greatest rates of return in 2003 are companies that became high-flyers in the late 90’s up to 2000  (Internet and other related companies). After studying the charts of many leaders during that time frame, the following are a few companies that stand out for having shown earnings acceleration and healthy price/volume action, yet you may not notice their improving situations based on some of IBD’s rankings.

Administaff, Inc.(NYSE - ASF)

 

Since late April ASF has broken out of a few well-formed bases on larger than average volume.  While earnings have been going improving, in the most recent financial report for the period ended June 30, 2003 they turned around from a negative 10 cents per share in then year earlier, to a positive eleven cents per share this year.  It has a very good Accumulation/Distribution rating in IBD, shares outstanding are 26.6 million, and in recent weeks the stock has shown gains on numerous above average volume days. In the past week it jumped back above its 50-day moving average line, and on 10/31/03 it gapped up to new 12-week highs (circled).

Robert Half Intl Inc (NYSE - RHI)

RHI has escalated nicely since early March, just like a lot of other stocks in the market. The current EPS Rating is down the drain, but sales revenues have been improving gradually, and earnings turned around from a negative 2 cents per share to positive three cents per share in the Sept ’03 comparison.  This large cap stock had a nice big gap up day on massive volume on 10/03/03 (circled) and later cleared its summer highs.  It is currently consolidating on quieter volume and hovering above the 50-day moving average line.

Gevity HR Inc (Nasdaq - GVHR)

This company has shown impressive earnings increases of over 100% for the past 4 quarterly comparisons, with the September ’03 report of $0.16 versus $0.06 (up +167%) from the same period one year earlier.   Shares outstanding are small at 18.5 million, and its high ranks from IBD make it a better match than the abovementioned ideas for CANSLIM purists. The stock is presently trading below its 50-day average (circled) and toward the bottom end of a well-formed 14-week base, building a nice foundation after rising substantially since the start of this year.

The same way that many of the past leaders in the tech sector have risen from almost dead, be watching for the re-emergence of companies that were once leaders in the commercial services-staffing industry during the roaring times. Companies during the past boom may have been spending much more than they needed to because of the amount of cash they were able to burn, so it is always possible that these issues may not offer the same explosive returns of their past.   However, if you start hearing more about improvements in the labor market, be especially sure to keep your eyes on this area.

To all of my readers I say: “Study the chart, hope for the best and always sell when it is time.”

 
Soraya Nasrallah, obtained her Series 7 license in 1992, and has served in the capacity of Sales Assistant, Head of Operations Department, and Stockbroker.  Contact Soraya Nasrallah via email at snasrallah@sourcegrp.com or by phone at (954)785-1990 for assistance you with your portfolio. She will be pleased to offer ideas that suit your investment needs, and she can help you achieve the gains you have been searching for.  Miss Nasrallah has just introduced a new educational program called StockWiz News! specifically created for teenagers and novice investors, incorporating stock market basics with CANSLIM in a colorful and picturesque format. It is the perfect gift for those who just don’t know much about the world of stocks and investing!

Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm. 

 
 SPECIAL    REPORT             

Cycles in the Market: a Bullish Confluence Beginning in November by Richard W. Miller

As the end of October has come, you should be aware of two important market cycles: the six-month cycle and the Presidential cycle. Entering November, they reach a bullish confluence that historically has proved very profitable. As the names imply, the six-month cycle divides the year into halves, and the Presidential cycle segregates annual market returns by where they fall in the national election cycle. Yale Hirsch has written extensively about these and other cycles in his “Stock Trader’s Almanac.”

For the Dow, if you had invested $10,000 in 1950 independently in the May 1-to-Oct 31 and Nov 1-to-Apr 30 periods—taking your money out of the market when the respective six-month period was done—by Oct 24, 2003, you would have only $9,466 remaining in the first account and $471,355 in the second. Further, you would have been exposed to far less market risk being out of the market for six months each year. This contrast is understandable in terms of market liquidity. During the second period, money flows into the market: most companies end their fiscal year; mutual funds distribute; Christmas puts money into the economy; companies pay end-of-the-year bonuses; early in the year, people receive tax refunds. The bearish period, on the other hand, includes the summer doldrums, generally a period of lower volume in the market as the institutional professionals vacation.

For whatever reason, there is a huge difference in performance between the two periods. My question with these cycles is, “Are these differences significant?” That is, what is the likelihood that this distribution of returns could have occurred by chance alone? If the pattern is likely to occur by chance, then the historical differences can be expected to bear no relation to future returns. I used a resampling approach to assess the significance of these differences. Under the assumption that no difference existed between these two halves of the year, I would expect the distribution of returns to show no preference for either half-year. Of course, if that were true, then past trends would not necessarily continue into the future. In the same way, flipping a fair coin and getting heads ten times in a row, though admittedly a rare event, does not improve its odds from the 50/50 chance of getting heads on the next flip.

"During the second period, money flows into the market: most companies end their fiscal year; mutual funds distribute; Christmas puts money into the economy; companies pay end-of-the-year bonuses; early in the year, people receive tax refunds."

The 106 biannual returns were randomly distributed by computer resampling; these gains were again segregated by the half-year; then their respective six-month periods summed. Finally, the 53 year biannual sums were compared to the 426% gain actual obtained in the November-to-April period. Only two times in 100,000 such random redistributions did a summed return exceed 426%, which shows that the observed biannual distribution is indeed a rare event; the half-year cycle is for real, and there are definitely good and bad halves of the year for investment.

The second cycle, the Presidential cycle, segregates annual market returns by where they fall in the national election cycles. From the 1940 Roosevelt cycle through the 2000 Bush cycle, 16 annual returns of the S&P 500 have summed thusly: 118.9% for election year (next 2004), 63.1% for post-election year (next 2005), 76.6% for midterm year (next 2006), and 263.7% for pre-election year (current 2003),. Further, 12 of 16 years have produced positive returns for the election year, 8 of 16 for the post-election year, 9 of 16 for the midterm year, and 15 of 15 years for the pre-election year (we’re currently in the 16th). Clearly, the pre-election year has performed far better than the other three. And that makes sense as the incumbent party does everything it can to hold power. But again, there’s the significance question. To be useful, this distribution must be significantly different from what one might expect form random redistribution.

As before, a resampling approach can be used to address the question of significance. After randomly redistributing these 63 annual returns into four-year cycles 10,000 times, only 50 times did a total return exceed 263.7% for one of the cycle’s years. Again, this is a very rare event and means that the observed distribution is very significant. Note: 6,038 times returns exceeded 118.9%, 8,372 times returns exceeded 76.6%, and 8,814 times returns exceeded 63.1%. The third year in an election cycle (e.g., 2003) is very bullish for the market while the other three are significantly less so (and statistically judged equivalent). Come November, we begin a very bullish confluence of these two cycles.

Richard Miller, statistics professional and serious trader with years of technical analysis-based trading. He currently manages six different portfolios and is the developer of the Triple Screen Method: a Unique Combination of Fundamentals, Value, and Technical Analysis - Available from his website: http://home.att.net/~miller.richard.w.p/index.html  Email rwmill@yahoo.com

 
SPECIAL   FEATURE                  
A New Must Read Book; The Successful Investor
By Dee Hendon, CANSLIM.net Contributor


Any professional in any field will tell you to stay on top of your game you must continue to study and learn.  Part of CANSLIM.net’s responsibility is to direct our readers to the best resources to acquire the edge necessary to be successful.

The Successful Investor by William J. O’Neil is worthy of your time and provides the reader with a concise study about investing in these current market conditions.

After reading the book for the second time, I noticed a change in the placement of the material.  Not by accident, the “M” in CANSLIM, (market condition or direction) was elevated to the first chapter.  In “How To Make Money In Stocks”, O’Neil’s highly acclaimed book, the explanation about the market condition or direction falls in chapter seven, of part 1.  Placing an emphasis on market conditions early on makes sense because O’Neil attributes most of a stock’s price movement to the current direction of the market.

Another stark contrast was the first area of instruction or explanation in the first chapter. He covered, how to recognize topping action and distribution in the market.  When you read the Introduction to the book you’ll understand why.  O’Neil focuses on the money lost in the bear market not the money made in the preceding bull market. As most of you know first hand, the individual investor usually arrives to the dance last. He made the point that so many people were taken to the cleaners unnecessarily, and how Investors Business Daily readers and followers of the CANSLIM discipline were selling near the top and not the bottom.  Recently William O’Neil was on “Kudlow and Cramer” on CNBC and he said that if a trading system was 80% right, that is enough to make the average investor a lot of money (provided he sells his losers quickly), recognizing that no system is perfect. 

Another important addition to this book is, how and when to short stocks.  In his previous writings this topic was reserved for the more sophisticated investor.  It provides an excellent method to follow for making money in down trending markets.

So why did I want to devote an article to this book, at this time?  Read the first paragraph again.  This book isn’t just a rewrite of other books by William O’ Neil, and after each chapter you should go to your charts and see how it applies today. Study the charts provided here, after you read chapter one.

WEEKLY  S&P 500 

 

 WEEKLY  NASDAQ

 

 
 
EDITOR'S  ARTICLE            

Timing Your Stock Purchase  by Charles B. Schaap traderdoc@stockmarketstore.com

Timing your stock purchase is important. It is not uncommon to buy a stock and have it drop in price afterwards, taking out the 8% stop-loss that you set (an 8% stop-loss is recommended by William J. O’Neil in his book, 24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success). It is essential to base the timing of your entry on chart analysis.

One easy approach to chart analysis involves the use of Moving Averages, since they provide a measure of the stock’s trend, or direction. Most investors who plan to own a stock for months to years (long-term) should first evaluate their stock in reference to the 200-day moving average (200 MA). If the stock is above its 200 MA, it is bullish. If it is below the 200 MA, it is bearish and should probably be avoided.

We also want our stock to be above its 50-day moving average (50 MA), so that the stock is bullish on both the long and intermediate-term timeframes. When both the long-term and intermediate-trend moving averages are trending up at the same time, your chances of making a profitable entry increase greatly.

An important principle of price movement is that a stock will rise above its moving average in a strong up trend, and periodically drop down to its moving average to gather energy for the next advance. Buying a stock that is too high above these important moving averages will likely result in a loss, even on a stock that appears to be rising in price.

To avoid this pitfall, buy the stock when it is at, or near, its 50 MA. This lessens the risk of being stopped-out, and increases the chance of a profitable entry. An even better entry occurs when the stock is near both the 50 MA and 200 MA, such as when the 50 MA is crossing upward through the 200 MA.

Timing your stock purchase with moving averages and chart analysis increases your probability of profit. As a general guideline, buy near the 50-day moving average. Try to buy a recognizable pattern, such as a cup-with-handle or double-bottom.

Charles B. Schaap and his wife Candy run a web site that features great gifts for the stock market enthusiast on your shopping list. -> www.stockmarketstore.com Phone: 480.634.8975 Fax: 480.634.8976

 
EDITOR'S  LETTER            

Moving Ahead, Giving Some Back - October Was a Good Month!

          
Though historically October has been a difficult time for the major indices, October 2003 has proven to be at the least a decent month for the general markets and another very good month for CANSLIM.net. We continue to grow nicely and offer more products and services to our members. This past month we added the Enhanced Daily BreakOuts Reports for our paid subscribers, and it has proven to be a huge success. As you know, we email these reports directly to you, and many subscribers have written to tell us how much they like it. We are now actually creating new market and sector commentary every day for that report as well as updating you about stocks recently featured in our reports. We’ve also add new notes for the stocks listed in the mechanical screen section of that report. With four members of our editorial staff frantically working on that each day, it gets pretty busy around here after the close! 

Another addition, we held one of our free seminars here in the South Florida area. Kenneth Gruneisen, the site’s founder, gave an excellent presentation on overall market conditions and also reviewed some of the stocks recently featured at CANSLIM.net. We are planning to hold another seminar in the South Florida area on November 10th. These meetings are scheduled to be held regularly (once a month), and we hope to soon be able to webcast such events over the internet so that all members can attend virtually.

           We have also been talking to the AAII (American Association for Independent Investors) to provide speakers at their regular chapter meetings. AAII supports the CANSLIM investment approach, and we are happy to provide CANSLIM experts to make these educational presentations whenever possible. The next South Florida seminar and AAII chapter meetings where we will be giving presentations will be announced in future communications to you.  We can send a speaker directly to you, so please let us know of any group of individual investors, investment clubs, or other large groups you're involved with who would be interested!  Call or email me and I will be pleased to discuss future possibilities with your further.

November starts the season of giving.  At CANSLIM.net we feel that it is our social responsibility to give back in some way. Doing the right thing is important. For the month of November, we will be giving 5% of our subscription sales revenues through our website to the American Red Cross. This fine organization provides a whole range of charitable services - disaster relief, blood supplies, assistance to the military and military families, to name just a few.

So, if your subscription is about to expire, or if you are pleased with our service and want to refer a friend, this month would be a great time to do so!  You will be helping us, yourself or a friend, as well as helping others by giving back to your community at a time of year when charity and assistance count the most.

Finally, a special thanks to all those subscribers who referred CANSLIM.net to their friends and colleagues. We are sincerely flattered by such referrals and are profoundly grateful for all of the CANSLIM.net supporters who enjoy our service enough to tell others about it. This is the best marketing money can’t buy. Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday.

 As always, best wishes for your financial success.

James F. Taulman
COO, CANSLIM.net, Inc.
Editor-in-Chief, CANSLIM.net News

 

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Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of CANSLIM.net, Inc.  The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto.  Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities.  This is an unsolicited opinion, and CANSLIM.net, Inc. has not been compensated in any way by the company(s) mentioned in this report.

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