News
"A Vital Source for the CANSLIM Investor" 

Sunday, October 31st, 2004 | 11:54 PM
November 2004
Volume 7, Issue 11
 

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75th Anniversary of 1929 Crash; Election Day Approaches, Blue Chips Lag
The choppy action that has prevailed over the markets for the past few months continued in October. The Dow Industrial average ended October with a modest loss (-0.5%) accompanied by higher volume. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (+4.1%) completed its strongest month of 2004 and led the three major indices. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 Index (+1.4%) ended October with more modest gains on heavier volume.

A promising sign is that while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite finished up for the month, they were both also able to close above their respective longer-term 200-day moving average lines, an important technical indicator. They vaulted above their moving averages on heavier volume, an encouraging sign of institutional buying demand. Nasdaq is now testing its well-defined downward trend line (featured in our market commentary on October 28, 2004). The S&P 500 Index finished with its third straight monthly increase.

Small cap indexes fared well in the past month as they also rallied on heavier volume above both their 50-day and 200-day moving average lines. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks companies with a median market value of about $472 million, rose +1.9% for the month. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average has not been acting well. The Dow Industrials fell this month on heavier volume and the blue chip index remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving average lines. Another impediment facing the Dow is that its 200-day moving average line rolled over and has begun slopping downward. In order for the Dow Industrials to repair the technical damage it must first overcome first its 50-day and then its 200-day moving average line.

Historically, three out of four stocks tend to follow the market. Moving averages are helpful in determining the overall strength of the market. It is a positive sign when the market trades above its moving average lines (50 DMA & 200 DMA). On the other hand, if a particular market is unable to trade above its respective moving average line it is paramount to be more cautious with one’s buys. For now, the overall action is encouraging for CANSLIM-oriented investors, as we don’t normally look at Dow stocks as buy candidates.

Crude oil prices fell in the last week of October by -6.1%, yet it is still trading very near its all time highs. The latest decline has helped alleviate some of the pressure on the economy. It is also inspiring optimism among stock buyers. Strong earnings and falling oil prices were the main catalysts sparking the markets rally in the latest week.

Several sources have by now called attention to the 75th anniversary of ``Black Tuesday,'' the culmination of a series of stock market crashes in 1929 that ended an eight-year market rally and helped send the U.S. economy into the Great Depression. Black Tuesday (October 29th, 1929) is notorious for being the worst day in the U.S. stock market, but in terms of percentage loss, the honor goes to Black Monday (October 19th, 1987). On that Monday, the stock market suffered a record one-day loss of around -13% percent. On Black Tuesday, the market suffered a loss of about -12%.

- Kenneth J. Gruneisen

CANSLIM.net's most timely buy candidates are analyzed by our experts in great detail in the "Stocks to Watch in This New Market "section.

Note: Due to an error in data processing with the original table published here (10/31/04), we have updated this table as of November 2, 2004 at 1:00PM. We apologize for the original error.

Notes:

• This is a list of the strongest groups based on the total number of new highs achieved in the group. For example, 1 stock making 10 new highs is the same as 10 stocks making 1 new high.
• If there are less than four stocks in the list of stocks making new highs then the top five stocks in that group will be added to the list.
• Any stock that is more than 20% off its 52-week high will be eliminated from the list regardless of any other characteristics.

• Links above (in 3rd column) refer to the original write-ups on previously featured stocks.

- CANSLIM.net News Staff

It should also be mentioned that changes brought on by the recent combination of Wachovia and Prudential Securities have been requiring some adjustments by all of our existing clients here at Source Capital. We appreciate everyone’s patience during the transition and we honestly believe it to be a change for the better.

As 2005 rapidly approaches, our firm is positioned to serve more clients in the specific areas where they are in need of assistance. And regardless of who wins the election, I see good things coming for those of us who are willing to work hard at doing it right! To me, that means doing our best to follow O’Neil’s guidelines from “How to Make Money in Stocks”.

"When your dollars are on the line, my advice is to trade based on what you actually see happening."

There are those who have determined that they would rather not rely on a broker for advice or direction, and this article should not be considered an attempt to convince you to do so. Over time, plenty of good ideas which are gleaned from this newsletter should offer you great starting points on the way to many profitable transactions – trades which you may be able to execute on your own through a low-cost provider. It is only smart to periodically evaluate how well you are doing and determine if you are satisfied with the net results you are getting. Most of you will automatically conduct a review as we approach the New Year. If you like the way it is going, keep doing it the way you’ve been doing it. Otherwise, be willing to look at other options. If you believe that you may have interest in taking it one step further, feel free to give my office a call.

While on the subject of our office, in other Source Capital related news, Adam Sarhan has recently joined our team in Lighthouse Point. He will be working closely with me on a daily basis to assist our customers. While he is soon to be preparing for the Series 7 exam, he already knows more about O’Neil’s successful method than most licensed stockbrokers. Those who may have already spoken with him could likely have noticed his enthusiasm for the CANSLIM approach. I am sure he will become a very great asset to our organization.

About Paper Trading
Looking again to the headline of this column, it makes me recall some recent remarks I have heard from people about paper trading. Discipline and skill are required to be successful in the market. The only way to get familiar with how you will handle the important buying and selling decisions you need to make is by actually getting into the act. Even Bill O’Neil points out that paper trading does not offer very realistic practice for investors because it does not involve the same emotional pressures of having your real hard-earned dollars on the line.

When your dollars are on the line, my advice is to trade based on what you actually see happening. Don’t be counter-intuitive, like one CANSLIM.net News reader I heard from recently. This call came from a reader who really scared the heck out of me by saying that when a stock hit the “Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price” he had concluded that “it had reached the ‘target price’ and was a sell, or perhaps even a short candidate”. Confusion like this is something that we definitely must avoid, folks! A stock that has passed its pivot point by more than 5% could be well on its way to doubling or tripling, but our reports provide this information so that members will easily be able to recognize when it is past a proper buy point within the guidelines. However, assuming it is a high-ranked leader that was highlighted in our reports, it probably matches up quite well with some of O’Neil’s big winning models of the past. Unloading or shorting such stocks could be both foolish and dangerous.

Kenneth J. Gruneisen - A Registered Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group (Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers personalized assistance. Investors with a significant financial interest in equities may inquire about opening an account by calling the office locally at (954) 785-1990 or 1-888-237-8399 or emailing to kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com  Further information is always available upon request. Contact us if you know anyone that may have an interest in receiving this or any of our other reports. Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm.

Financials | StockTalk | News | Chart | SEC | Zacks Reports

Profile: Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH) is a provider of supply chain logistics services and a manufacturer of engineered products. Its Integrated Logistics Solutions (ILS) segment is a supply chain logistics provider of production components to large, multinational manufacturers.  Its Aluminum Products segment manufactures cast aluminum components for automotive, agricultural equipment, heavy-duty truck and construction equipment manufacturers - and also provides value-added services, such as design and engineering, machining and assembly. Its Manufactured Products segment operates a group of manufacturing businesses that design and manufacture quality products engineered for specific customer applications. It is a high-ranked leader in the Diversified Operations group, a group in the top 25% of IBD's 197 Industry Groups. In recent financial comparisons it shows sales revenues and earnings acceleration. Management owns a 38% interest in the stock, keeping them motivated to look after shareholder value. 

What to Look For and Look Out For: Look for it to follow through on its latest big volume gains and rise above its pivot point with conviction to indicate a technical buy signal. There should be support found at its upward trend line  If it reverses and sinks under the lows of the 4-week period of tight trading it would increase concern, while a more serious violation of its 50-day moving average line (the blue line) on above average volume would be considered a technical sell signal.

Technical Analysis: After gapping up on 7/29/04 the stock quickly reached $20, reversing and closing well off it on 8/09/04.  Since then it has been basing in a reasonably orderly fashion above its 50-day moving average.  A 10/01/04 breakout on high volume reversed and fell back into the prior base on the very next day.  After four weeks of trading in a very tight range with lighter than average volume, it blasted higher on Friday following the release of its latest earnings news.

Financials | StockTalk | News | Chart | SEC | Zacks Reports

Profile: Lifeline Systems, Inc. provides 24-hour personal response monitoring services associated with its products to subscribers, primarily elderly individuals, with medical or age-related conditions, as well as physically challenged individuals. A communicator connects to the telephone line in the subscriber's home and a personal help button that is worn or carried by the individual subscriber.  When activated it initiates a telephone call from the subscriber's communicator to its central monitoring facilities. In July 2003 it acquired the assets of the Emergency Response Systems business unit of March Networks Corporation, a privately held developer of broadband Internet protocol (IP). Its most recent quarterly earnings increases are not eye-popping or quite up to the usual +25% earnings, and its Relative Strength line has confirmed the rise to new highs but its RS rank is just one notch under the suggested 80 minimum, yet its annual fundamental and technical performance  remain positive. Management is motivated by a 19% ownership interest, an the Commercial Services - Security/Safety group is in the top 19% of IBD's 197 Industry Groups

What to Look For and Look Out For: The risk/reward looks favorable and a volume increase on any upward action could help it push to and beyond the recent top and offer a technical buy signal.  Be watching for it to clear prior highs, and an important technical breakout on high volume would of course be very bullish.  Meanwhile, a critical break under its 50-day line with increased volume would be cause for concern and not good for its outlook, and a close under its $23 or its October lows would be considered an even more clear sell signal.

Technical Analysis: The stock is trading above its 50-day line (now at $23.63) with very few down days on above average volume in its recent trading history.  It held up very well in a volatile market, signaling decent support, especially as it rose from its 50 DMA on 10/25/04 with the highest volume anywhere on its chart.  It could spend several more time basing before it may eventually make a run at new multi-year highs. 

Financials | StockTalk | News | Chart | SEC | Zacks Reports

Profile: Station Casinos, Inc. is a gaming and entertainment company that owns and operates eight major hotel/casino properties (one of which is 50% owned) and three smaller casino properties (one of which is 50% owned) in the Las Vegas metropolitan area, and also manages a casino for a Native American tribe. It gets  some very high-ranks from IBD although it is worth noting that it has shown sequentially smaller percentage increases in earnings over the year earlier in recent comparisons, a cause for some concern. Management is inclined to be motivated by the 31% ownership interest they hold.  Strength in the Leisure - Gaming/Equipment group is another big plus, as the group is listed in the top 10% of IBD's 197 groups. 

What to Look For and Look Out For: While it did technically rise above the pivot we have identified above, high volume without much price progress on 10/21/04 and 10/27/04 suggests that it has still been fighting some resistance. Meaningful gains on heavy volume following through to a new high close would be a good reassurance worth waiting for as a clearer technical buy signal.  Meanwhile, deterioration under its 50-day moving average line with above average volume would be considered as technical sell signal. 

Technical Analysis: It has formed a long 7-month flat base with gaps up in the base occurring on 9/08/04 and 10/19/04.  In recent weeks it tested support at its 50-day moving average line and bounced impressively off it. There is no overhead supply remaining to hinder its price progress.

Financials | StockTalk | News | Chart | SEC | Zacks Reports

Profile: Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (MBT) is a provider of mobile cellular communications services in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, employing technology based primarily on Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM). It provides standard voice services and value-added services including voice mail, short message service (SMS), general packet radio service (GPRS), information and entertainment services (including multimedia messaging), and data and fax transmission. At year-end 2003, the Company's subscriber base was 16.7 million.  Note its improving business group strength (currently ranked 39 improved from 69 ranking three-months ago) and favorable IBD (composite rank 99) and Zacks (2) fundamental rankings.  The next two year’s PEG ratios (0.13 & 0.33) are indicative of much value left at this price. In the past 90 days, analysts’ have raised this year’s estimates 14%  from 9.27 to 10.55, suggesting that the company's ongoing fundamental and technical performance are expected to remain positive. Funds hold 4% of available shares. Moreover, top performing funds have increased their number from 97 to 113 over the past four quarters, and in the last reporting period 11 of these funds have added 28 million new shares (IBD 10/8/04).

What to Look For and Look Out For: The risk/reward looks favorable for those who may wait to purchase upon any breakout over the pivot point with a sufficient volume increase, rising from a two month period of range-bound consolidation following a five month cup-like pattern.   Meanwhile, any close back below the 50-day moving average (the blue line) would cause concern, especially if occurring on above average volume.  As usual, a 7-8% stop loss should be used to protect against more serious losses.

Technical Analysis: As is evident on a monthly chart (not shown), MBT has been trending steadily upward since August of ’02, and its weekly chart (also not shown) highlights the support generally offered by its 50-day moving average. It formed a cup between April and September, reversing from well above its 200 DMA on 7/28.  Since breaking out on 8/31/04 (after earnings were reported +108% year-over-year) MBT’s float has turned over 0.65 times in consolidation. Volume has been mostly light in this latest consolidation phase, far below the overwhelming volume on the earlier break out. 

L= Leader  |  ET = Extended  |  BO = Break Out (new)  |  BV = Big Volume
NC = No Comment  |  F = Fundamentals
C = Current Quarterly Earnings Per Share |  A = Annual Earnings Per Share
S = Shares Outstanding | I = Institutional Ownership

Following this theme, I tested three common patterns used for entering long positions in individual stocks: three or more day pullbacks, new 21-day highs (breakouts), and new 21-day lows (bottom fishing). To validate this study, I studied these three patterns for a group of fundamentally sound stocks (9/24/04 IBD 100) with earnings and analysts’ rankings revision fuel (Zacks rankings of 1 or 2) and value left in price (two year PEG ratios less than 1.25): 36 stocks were evaluated over the 294-day period between 7/30/03 and 9/28/04 (10,584 test days).

For these 36 stocks, the average 5-day gain for a control condition, defined as going long when today’s price exceeded yesterday’s high, was +1.27 percent. Limiting buys to pullbacks increased returns to +1.84% (1.45x the control), to new 21-day highs increased returns to +1.38% (1.09x the control), to new 21-day lows increased returns to +2.59% (2.04x the control). Clearly, in this market, buying the new 21-day lows for a week-long trade was a superior strategy to either buying pullbacks or buying breakouts. These results are consistent with Connor’s findings for 15 years of S&P data.

This month, I report the results from trading the 21-day low setup for quality stocks in short-term pullback. From 10/07 through 10/22, I cross-screened the Daily Graphs and Zacks universe of stocks to meet the following criteria: IBD’s eps/rs greater or equal than 80, SMR A/B, composite rank greater or equal than, Zacks rank less than or equal to 3, price greater or equal than $10, and average volume greater or equal than 100k. About 200 stocks, each with quality fundamentals and bullish price performance, were then assessed as to whether they were making new 21-day lows. Each day, the final trading list had 4 to 10 stocks. Trades were made when one or more of these demonstrated reversal power, i.e., after the following criteria were met: over the next five days, (1) today’s high must exceed yesterday’s high, (2) today’s close must be greater than today’s open and in the top 55 percent of today’s trading range, and (3) today’s volume must exceed yesterday’s. If the trade is to occur on the fifth day following the 21-day low and the risk is greater than 10%, the trade is not taken.

When these conditions were met—and the reversal strength indicated—I then bought at the close of the day, set a stop loss just below the minimum of the last few days (usually just below the 21-day low), set a first profit target as the purchase price plus the difference between purchase price and the stop (1-to-1 risk/reward), and a second profit target at the recent pattern high close before the new low was made. Note, one-half of the position was closed at each target. When either profit target was reached, one-half of the position was sold. The following Chart for TZOO demonstrates the most profitable trade.

Table I documents the trade management criteria and results for 27 trades that occurred over the 12 trading days between 10/7 and 10/22: 14 proved profitable, 3 not; 20 remain open, i.e., to date, only one of their respective profit targets has been hit. Trading 1,000 shares with each trade has resulted in $15,755 in cumulative profit or $927 per trade, an average of a 2% gain per trade held on average for 7 days. And over this period, 28 candidates did not meet the buy criteria.

In summary, this year’s market has been challenging. Buying quality stocks in short-term pullbacks is a strategy that has proven successful, especially when strength in the subsequent upward reversal is demonstrated first.

The Above Article Was Prepared by Dr. Richard Miller, Founder of...

GET HIS FREE DAILY STOCK REPORTS CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE

The Great Paradox
Soraya Nasrallah, Registered Representative, Source Capital Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC 

One of the most important facets of the CANSLIM stock selection system is the concept of waiting to purchase shares of a company’s stock right at the moment when it is reaching a new high in price. There are a variety of reasons why a company’s stock is moving up in price. For example, new products introduced into the marketplace that revolutionize the way we live can bring about earnings acceleration which helps propel a stock to new highs. Consider the personal computer and the contraceptive pill as just two excellent examples that were linked to huge stock market success stories.

According to William J. O’Neil’s book, “How to Make Money in Stocks”, approximately 98% of individuals attending his seminars and a large amount of institutional investors are “bottom buyers.” In other words, they tend to purchase stocks at the bottom, not at a new price high.

It is important to keep in mind that a stock goes from $50 to $100 by going through $51, then $52, then $53, and so on until it reaches $100 or more. The unfortunate fact about this very important event is that most investors have a serious problem purchasing a stock that is entering new high territory. It is quite important to pay attention to stocks breaking new highs, especially if this occurs on higher than average volume.

So what is the “Great Paradox”? According to the book How To Make Money in Stocks, O’Neil’s definition of the Great Paradox is - “What seems too high in price and risky to the majority usually goes higher, and what seems low and cheap usually goes lower.”

It is important for you, the investor, to make this statement a part of your investment creed. The CANSLIM system is an excellent strategy for succeeding in selecting stocks that have the capability of moving up in price substantially. I must say that out of all of the criteria that must be followed in the system, I personally feel that the “N” (new products, new management, and especially new highs in price) is the most important one concerning the timing of your stock purchases.

Of course, without the “M” (market direction) in your favor, you may not have the opportunity to take advantage of many stocks moving into new territory. That is mainly due to the fact that most stocks follow the market. One other thing I must mention is that many stocks that have moved up to new high territory during a downward trending market have often succeeded at moving even higher when the market environment got better.

"...most investors have a serious problem purchasing a stock that is entering new high territory."

One does not know for sure what a stock’s price will do after it successfully rises above its pivot point with high volume, but the odds favor it continuing its move upward. There are some stocks that give you the buy signal and then retreat or collapse. It is best to always limit losses at 7-8%, just as O’Neil continually suggests. When they fail, it is interesting how often the truth comes out later as fundamentals start to falter – and perhaps the firm’s CEO will suddenly decide to leave and spend more time with his family.

Remember that the pivot point or buy point is the precise moment when a stock’s price is starting to break out of its price base. Note that the perfect time to purchase is during a bull market and just as a stock is breaking out of its price base. This means that after a stock has been consolidating or moving sideways in an orderly range for at least 5 to 6 weeks, the price suddenly spikes above that base’s highs on much larger than average volume.

It is crucial for me to also mention that investors should not purchase a stock once it is more than 5% to 10% above the prior highs. When purchasing a highly ranked stock that is entering new territory, always take into account the volume action behind the upward movement. Look for a substantial volume increase of at least 50%+ above average when the price moves past the pivot point. This is an important clue that institutional investors are taking positions in the stock. Bigger volume is better, but a 50%+ increase is the minimum guideline.

It is crucial for the smaller investor to have institutional investors on their side because their great purchasing power is what will allow the stock’s price to move substantially. Keep in mind that the amount of volume behind the move will let you know that the institutions are behind the stock when your chances of obtaining a nice “ride” from the upward movement are much greater. Naturally the institutional investors can have great influence when a stock’s price is declining too.

Now that you have the basic concept of the very important “N” in CANSLIM in terms of new price highs and the best time to enter a position, you need to actually find those stocks at or near their 52-week high and trading on heavy volume. I recommend using the Stock Screening Tool, here. Use the “Price Is” and “Volume Is” parameters to find those stocks on the CANSLIM.net Leader’s List trading heavier than average volume. Of course, new highs on heavy volume do not alone make for a good buy candidate. There are six others letters in CANSLIM – reminders of the other important factors that go into properly evaluating a stock before buying it.

As for finding New Products and New Management, that is a matter of carefully reviewing a company’s news announcements over the past few months or years. Fortunately, new announcements are usually released over the standard channels and readily available to individual investors. Try Yahoo! Finance as a good place to start, here. Having a new product or new management is not enough; anything new should also be backed up by sales and earnings growth, not just the hype or potential.

For those readers that would like to obtain more in depth information about the N in CANSLIM, I recommend that you review chapter 3, pages 24-31 of the book “How to Make Money in Stocks”, third edition by William J. O’Neil. If you would like to obtain this must-have book, you may purchase it through www.canslim.net, here

Soraya Nasrallah, obtained her Series 7 license in 1992, and has served in the capacity of Sales Assistant, Head of Operations Department, and Stockbroker.  Contact Soraya Nasrallah via email at snasrallah@sourcegrp.com or by phone at (954)785-1990 for assistance you with your portfolio. She will be pleased to offer ideas that suit your investment needs, and she can help you achieve the gains you have been searching for.  Miss Nasrallah has just introduced a new educational program called InvestorWiz! specifically created for teenagers and novice investors, incorporating stock market basics with CANSLIM in a colorful and picturesque format. It is the perfect gift for those who just don’t know much about the world of stocks and investing! Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm.

The most important and most exciting of these new features and upgrades is an entirely new product – a series of online seminars based on our popular live seminars and presentations we have done over the years. These online seminars contain advanced educational training on the CANSLIM method of investing. We hope to have the online seminars available soon, so watch your emails and the website for the important announcement. While we haven’t set the prices for these online seminars, current CANSLIM.net StockNews Members will receive a discount on the list price.

In addition to the upcoming online seminars, we have seriously upgraded the functionality in the Leaders List page and the BreakOuts page:

1. These pages are now sortable. When you click on the Leader’s List page, the stocks are first listed in alphabetical order. Perhaps you wish to see the stocks with the greatest gain of the day. Or perhaps you wish to see stocks that are trading on the highest volume on a percentage basis. Just click on the column name, the entire list is resorted in ascending order (from lowest to highest). Click on the same column a second time, it is resorted in descending order (from highest to lowest)

2. These pages are now color-coded. When you display either of these lists, the stocks which we have highlighted in our reports or the Mid-Day BreakOuts Report are indicated with a color code, either blue or green. This means there is additional information on that stock available on our website.

3. These pages now contain links to all of the historic notes written by our experts. Every day we generate individual notes on a large number of stocks. We’ve created a database of those notes and linked it to the Leaders List and BreakOuts Page so you can see previous notes created by our CANSLIM experts.

We’ve had a major upgrade to our message board. While our previous message board certainly worked, it was rather simplistic and difficult to administer. The new message board is more sophisticated yet easier to use. Our contributors and experts review our message board frequently and often respond to questions and comments that our subscribers post there. To see our new message board, click here.

New products and upgrades to our existing products and services keep us burning the mid-night oil. It’s the nature of a growing company that needs to deliver what our subscribers want and need. It’s important to note that we do update the “What’s New” page so you can always check for our latest upgrades, reports, newsletter release, etc to look for anything new we have announced.

Andrew C. Hansen
Editor, CANSLIM.net
editor@canslim.net

CAN SLIM (written here as "CANSLIM" or "Canslim:) is a registered trademark of William O'Neil + Co. CANSLIM.net is not owned nor affiliated with William O'Neil + Co. or any of their subsidiaries including The Investor's Business Daily newspaper.