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CURRENT |
MARKET |
CONDITIONS |
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A overview of the
current market conditions - the important "M" in CANSLIM.
It's Not All Bullish In Wonderland But the
Small Caps are Still Triumphant
I expected to see some seasonal strength in the
past holiday week. AND...once again, the market showed its remarkable ability to
hold support right where it needed to...and the holiday move was much stronger
than I would have expected.
The most important happening of last
week was the market's ability to hold at, or near, its 50-day moving
average...once again. A chart of any of the major indices can show what I
am talking about. On several occasions, the market has teased the first
real intermediate -term correction...and then turned straight back up.
Rather
than waxing eloquent about all the recent strengths in the major indices, let's
start with the negatives I have mentioned before, because they are still out
there. Breakouts are just not working like
they were in recent months. Either stocks are too extended or are breaking
down. I am not seeing as many quality bases as before. Time could certainly take
care of that.
Insiders are selling at a clip that has never
been experienced - over 50-1 sells vs. buys. Insider action is usually a lagging
indicator by about 6 months. Thus, things can get interesting next year. I am
amazed by some commentary asking the investing audience to not worry about this
action.
This rally is already 8 months long. That in
itself is a problem. BUT...notice how the lion's share happened in the first 11
weeks of this rally. In fact, the S&P 500 has hardly moved since mid-June.
It has been strictly a small-cap affair.
Sentiment is still horrid. I have always believed
that the too-bullish sentiment will eventually come back to haunt the market. Do
you know of any bears? I don't.
"Good news" is no longer being bought.
In fact, the market sold off on the monster GDP numbers as well as positive
reports from companies like Cisco (CSCO) and Home Depot
(HD). This is in stark contrast to recent months.
While there are still a good amount of leadership
names still leading, there has been enough deterioration in names like ERTS and
others that warrant watching.
That
leads to the good news.
Most stocks are still in fine technical shape. I
would guess 7-8 out of 10. Markets usually don't come undone when so many stocks
have good technical patterns.
Major averages are still way above longer-term
moving averages.
SEMICONDUCTORS remain strong. If there is one
sector that is a leading indicator of the market, it is the SEMIS.
The NEW HIGH list remains quite large while NEW
LOWS are non-existent.
The last point I want to make is how much the
small-caps continue to outperform large-caps. While the S&P and Dow
have been basically marking time since mid-June, the Russell and smaller
indices continue to roll.
I will be watching this period closely. In the
recent past, the market has been strong coming off of a holiday. In any case, I
would rather see stocks do more work consolidating and then breaking out of new
bases before getting real excited again.
- Gary Kaltbaum
Gary
Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over $100
million under management. For over 18 years he has
specialized in identifying and trading growth stocks
in the intermediate-term time frame. He can be heard
nightly on his nationally syndicated radio show
"Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations
and at the Investors Edge website. Listen to live or
archived shows here.
He has been featured on the FOX News Channel and is
regularly quoted by by CNBC, the Wall Street Journal,
Dow Jones News, Reuters, and Bloomberg. |
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MARKETS |
LEADING |
GROUPS |
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Make sure that you are familiar
with the pace-setters in each of these currently top-ranked
groups. The symbols of
companies listed should not be considered specific buy
recommendations, nor should you assume that all of the
stocks listed are proper CANSLIM-based choices. Know
that your chances will be better by choosing a leading
stock that meets the CANSLIM guidelines and is in a
leading industry group, or essentially, one that has
plenty of company or that is among several
strong-performing peers. So, familiarize
with the list of the top performing industry groups
and the leading stocks below. More
specific buy candidates are presented in the "Stocks to Watch in This New Market
"section.
| Rank |
Group
Name |
Leaders |
|
1 |
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
- Communication Equipment |
CMTL
RIMM GRMN TRMB UTSI |
|
2 |
ELECTRONICS
- Printed Circuit Boards |
NTE
SGMA SANM
BHE
TTMI |
|
3 |
METALS
& MINING - Gold/Silver & Minerals |
CCJ
FCX ACO NEM BVN |
|
4 |
RETAIL/WHOLESALE
- Computer & Telecom Electronics |
SCSC
CELL NSIT MALL CDWC |
|
5 |
ELECTRONICS
- Semiconductor Manufacturing |
OVTI
OIIM LEXR SNDK IRF |
|
6 |
COMPUTER
SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Information
Technology Services |
RDWR
FDRY QLGC ELX NTPA |
|
7 |
MEDICAL
- Healthcare |
SEM
ODSY SRZ
VSTA HCR |
|
8 |
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
- Telecom Services - Foreign |
MBT
VIP
VOD AMX STHLY |
|
9 |
FINANCIAL
SERVICES - Bank, Mortgage, Finance |
ADS
WSBK RGF EWBC CFC |
|
10 |
INTERNET
- Internet Software & Services |
TTN
CTSH
SAY ANT SRX |
-
CANSLIM.net News
Staff
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INVESTING
FOR |
THE NEW |
MILLENNIUM |
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Don’t Distract Yourself With ‘Could Have’ or ‘Should
Have’ Scenarios
We
cannot let all of the ‘could have’ and ‘should have’ scenarios interfere
with our use of proper trading disciplines. Successful investing is a job that
requires us to react intelligently to the market action and avoid being
emotional in our investment decision making.
Last Wednesday’s action in
QADI was weak. Its earnings failed to increase by the 20%-25% minimum
improvement CANSLIM followers should always look for in the current quarterly
comparison. This stock was hit with selling pressure after it reported earnings
that failed to measure up with the same quarter one year earlier. Some of my
clients at Source Capital Group owned QADI and they were being prompted by me to
sell it, even as the price dropped under $12.00
One client remarked how it
would have been much better to sell it just a couple of days earlier when the
stock was trading above $14.00. True, but at that time the stock was not
prompting us to sell based on any of our usual sell rules. So, who was to say at
that time that the stock might not run on up to $16, $18, and $20
per share or more? Some investors may wonder why it would be reasonable to hold
it at $14, yet when it was breaking under $12 it was time to sell.
I’ll do my best to explain that one in a bit, but if we are going to talk
about the difference a couple of day’s worth of market action could have
meant, I first would like to point out something else I explained to my
frustrated client.
Though not to frustrate him
more, I suggested that if we were going to play around with the concept of what
we could have done, we might also want to take a look back at our purchase. Had
we indeed bought the stock just two days earlier, we could have been on board at
$8.75 instead of $10.00. In mid-September QADI was hovering
quietly above its 50-day moving average, but we weren’t buyers until it spiked
higher on September 18th and 19th and clearly broke out on
high volume.
With the benefit of knowing the
ultimate outcome, it is normal to look back at a situation and say things would
have been better had we acted differently. Hindsight stirs the emotions. Smart
investors don’t let their emotions get in the way of taking proper action. We
may have seen things we liked about QADI as it was setting up, but we waited for
the high volume breakout as our buy signal. Proof of institutional buying is one
of the most essential characteristics in a stock if it is to be a buy candidate.
Now addressing our sell
signals, it is hard to forgive any company when its earnings are slumping. So
when QADI’s latest earnings were announced at 18% less than the year
prior, the fundamental decline alone may have been a great reason to sell it and
free up the cash for another stock showing stronger earnings. But soon after the
news, there were other technical sell signals made apparent.
QADI had formed another decent
base and broken out of it with high volume on November 12th and 13th.
However, it was rolling back into its prior base and technically deteriorating
as it sank back under $12.50. Soon thereafter, it violated its 50-day
moving average near $12.00. Note also that the volume total on
Wednesday’s decline exceeds that of any other day on the chart. Even after it
managed to improve and close above its 50 DMA, it is difficult to make a case
for anyone toughing it out and holding. Even
though its Relative Strength is still pretty good, Investor’s Business Daily
has already adjusted its Earnings Per Share rating on the stock down to a below
average 31.
We
are not ever going to buy at the very bottom, or sell at the very top. However,
with an eye on the charts we can often spot the important beginnings and endings
of very significant trends. Spotting those significant trends is what we really
need to be good at, not imagining what could have been.
-
Kenneth J. Gruneisen, Registered Investment Advisor, Source Capital Group,
Inc. Members NASD/SIPC
Kenneth
J. Gruneisen - A Registered Investment Advisor &
Registered Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group
(Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers personalized
assistance. Investors with a significant financial
interest in equities may inquire about opening an account
by calling 1-888-237-8399 or emailing to
kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com
Comments contained in the body of this report are
technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of
Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable and
accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be
guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect
transactions, including transactions contrary to any
recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities
mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any
recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an
offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the
purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group,
Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm.
Further information is always available upon request. If
you know anyone that may have an interest in receiving
this or any of our other reports, please call our office
locally at (954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399 or email
kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com
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STOCKS TO |
WATCH IN THIS |
NEW MARKET |
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Our
staff of experts researches and then compiles a list
of selected stocks which warrant further investigation
by investors. These stocks show strong potential for a
share price breakout based on the CANSLIM investment
methodology. These are not necessarily buy
recommendations. If anytime
throughout the month these individuals find a
particular stock that has similar characteristics as
the ideas featured below we will produce one of our
CANSLIM.net Stock Bulletins or a CANSLIM.net Stock
Alert Report and it will be emailed as a direct link to
all subscribers.
Recent Testing Near 50-day Lines Offers a Look at
Support for Indices and Individual Issues
November's
action took the major indices through another
important testing period near their 50-day moving
average lines. Nasdaq traded under that
important short-term moving average for several days,
during which time volume was rather tame. Then the
final week brought about a marked improvement.
Since three out of every four stocks tend to follow
the action in the major averages, there was similar
testing among many leading stocks at their 50-day
lines. No one knows whether December will bring
a Santa Claus rally, or weakness like was seen last
year. Let the recent lows serve as an important
stop out point and you should be fine even in the
ugliest of possible scenarios. As
always, we strongly suggest a strict selling
discipline to protect yourself from losses greater
than 7-8%. Smart
CANSLIM-oriented investors know that the general
market direction will always weigh heavily on the
outcome of your trading decisions.
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Chicos Fas Inc
- Richard W. Miller |
http://www.chicos.com/ |
|
Ticker Symbol:
CHS (NYSE) |
Industry Group:
Retail – clothing/shoe |
Shares
Outstanding:
86.4 Million |
|
Price:
$38.38 (at close 11/28/03) |
Day's Volume:
365,800
(at close 11/28/03) |
Shares In Float:
80.4 Million |
|
52 Wk High:
$39.20 |
50-Day Avg Vol:
987,600 |
Up/Down Vol Ratio:
1.1 |
|
Pivot Point:
$38.97
(11/14/03 high plus 0.10 |
Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price:
$40.78 |

Financials,
Stock Talk,
News,
Chart ,
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Profile:
Chico's FAS,
Inc. is a specialty retailer of exclusively designed,
private label, sophisticated, casual-to-dressy
clothing, complementary accessories and other
non-clothing gift items under the Chico's brand name.
The Chico's brand focuses on women who are 35 years
old and up with moderate- and higher-income levels.
Its offerings are more diverse, including casual,
active wear, intimate apparel and casual career. As of
April 18, 2003, the Company operated 401 retail stores
in 41 states and the District of Columbia, with a
significant concentration in California, Florida,
Texas and the northeast United States. Its
industry group is in the top 12% of IBD's 197
Industry Groups and has been moving between a ranking
of 23 and 17 over the past three months (from
51 six
months ago).
What to
Look For and Look Out For:
The risk/reward
looks favorable here, and the next two year PEG ratios
at 1.01 (’04) and 1.22 (’05) indicate the stock’s
price has room to grow. Funds hold 42% of the stock;
quality fund ownership has slightly increased to 265
from 261 over the past four quarters; and inventory
turnover at 14.4x is better than most retailers in
their industry group (9.0x for ARO, 9.4x for URBN,
5.0x for FINL). While both earnings and revenues are
increasing, growth rates are slowing as the size of
the company increases (earnings growth: 36% this year
versus 56%, 43%, and 84% for the last three years). Near
term, price increasing beyond its pivot point is
likely to be followed quickly by clearing its November
high ($39.20). Breaking out from the current
month-long congestion on a volume surge (as happened
four previous times indicated by
"BO" on the above chart ) validates the play
for further price movement into the $40+ range. Of
course, CHS should benefit with other retailers from a
good December season. Meanwhile, a critical break and
close below its five-month trend line (green line) on increased volume would be a cause for
concern. Further, price closing below its 50-day
moving average, especially on greater than average
volume, would be a good exit point as price could fall
to the low $30s as the next support level. Of some further concern is the
absence of accumulation during this month-long period
and the generally low volume (boxed region), but this
behavior is similar to the volume action in other
regions between breakouts as well. CHS has
an earning report due 12/2 after hours ($0.27
consensus estimate).
Technical Analysis:
Price has been well supported by its 20-day moving
average and the trend line shown (green). Nine times
since July its price has pulled back then bounced up from
the vicinity of its 20 DMA (not shown) where it has
been for the last week. Notice too, the pullback to
the trend line has been quickly followed each time by
a break out on large volume.
|
Lexar Media Inc
-
-
Richard W. Miller |
www.lexarmedia.com |
|
Ticker Symbol:
LEXR (Nasdaq) |
Industry Group:
Elec-semiconductor Mfg |
Shares
Outstanding:
70.2 Million |
|
Price:
$21.35 (at close 11/28/03) |
Day's Volume:
630,400
(at close 11/28/03) |
Shares In Float:
56.2 Million |
|
52 Wk High:
$24.49 |
50-Day Avg Vol:
3,046,000 |
Up/Down Vol Ratio:
1.1 |
|
Pivot Point:
$23.30
(11/13/03 high plus .10) |
Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price:
$24.46 |

Financials,
Stock Talk,
News,
Chart,
SEC,
Zacks Reports
Profile:
Lexar
Media, Inc. designs, develops and markets
high-performance flash cards and connectivity products
marketed as "digital film" to the digital photography
market, as well as to other markets utilizing portable
digital storage media for the capture and retrieval of
digital content. The Company's digital film products
enable customers to capture digital images and
download them to a personal computer (PC) for editing,
distributing and printing. Its industry group is in
the top 2% of IBD's 197 Industry Groups and has
moved between 6 and 12 over the past six months.
What to
Look For and Look Out For:
The risk/reward
looks good here, and the next two year PEG ratios at
0.04 and 0.61 indicate excellent value remains in the
stock’s price. Funds hold 30% of the shares, and
quality fund ownership has been increasing
dramatically from 46 to 126 over the past four
quarters. Earnings growth rates have ranged between
175% and 199% over the past four quarters (sales
between 90% and 199%) versus the prior
year. Price closing below its 50-day
moving average would be cause for concern while a close
below its 11/24 low ($19.10)—especially on higher
volume—is a cause for exiting as LEXR could then drop
into the low-to-mid teens before finding support.
This price trace presently looks like a typical left side of a “cup-and-handle”
formation. Watch for accumulation to show up in
volume.
Technical Analysis:
LEXR’s price has been
well supported by its 50-day moving average since it
began its recent run up in April ’03 from under $4.00.
Several points support a bullish move from here: (1)
price has just bounced from its 50-day moving average;
(2) the “hammer” candle made 11/24 is indicative of a
change in control (buyers now in control); (3) the
weekly pattern is in a classic 4-week pullback with
last week’s candle marking a bullish reversal; and (4)
the recent hammer thrust bounced from the 38.2%
Fibonacci level (defined by the major low and high
marked (circled in green).
|
Research in
Motion Ltd. |
rim.net |
|
Ticker Symbol:
RIMM (Nasdaq) |
Industry Group:
Telecom-Wireless Equip |
Shares
Outstanding:
77 million |
|
Price:
$45.69 (at close 11/28/03) |
Day's Volume:
492,883
(at close 11/28/03) |
Shares In Float:
53.9 Million |
|
52 Wk High:
$47.90 |
50-Day Avg Vol:
2,533,600 |
Up/Down Vol Ratio:
1.3 |
|
Pivot Point:
$46.98
(11/25/03 high plus .10) |
Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price:
$49.33 |

Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
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Profile:
Research In Motion Limited (RIM) is a designer,
manufacturer and marketer of wide area wireless
solutions for the worldwide mobile communications
market. Through the development of integrated
hardware, software and services that support multiple
wireless network standards, the Company provides
platforms and solutions for seamless access to
time-sensitive information including e-mail, phone,
short message service (SMS) messaging, Internet and
intranet-based corporate data applications. RIM also
licenses its technology to handset and software
vendors to enable these companies to offer wireless
data services using the BlackBerry Enterprise Server.
There are in excess of 10,000 companies worldwide with
the BlackBerry Enterprise Server installed. This is a
company with four straight quarters of accelerating
sales that is again becoming profitable after having
turned in a negative performance in its fiscal '02 and
'03. Keep in mind
that since this is a company turning it around after several unprofitable quarters, its
EPS rank is below the recommended 80 level usually a
CANSLIM guideline. This is a fast-growing company
in an industry that should see outstanding growth, and
the
future outlook is very good as the company will be
facing easy to beat earnings comparisons in the
quarters ahead.
What to
Look For and Look Out For:
After its first stage gap up and breakout above $30, this stock
advanced 50% and has since been in a consolidation
phase. This has resulted in a flat base that has been
forming over the last eight weeks. With low volume on
days the stock declines and above average volume on
several up days, this is a healthy looking base. A
breakout above $48 on large volume would indicate
institutional buying and an excellent buying opportunity, while a break below its 50 DMA at
around $43, or worse, a violation of the
present base's lows, could indicate more serious trouble
ahead.
Technical Analysis:
The
stock recently bounced from just above its 50 DMA, which is a sign
of great institutional support. If it can break above
$48 on
heavy volume, technically this could run up to
challenge the
next major resistance level around $70.
Note that this stock traded as high as $175 in
2000 as has rallied back from as low as $8 in
2002.
|
Kyphon,
Inc. by
Kenneth
J. Gruneisen
|
http://www.kyphon.com/
|
|
Ticker
Symbol:
KYPH (Nasdaq)
|
Industry
Group:
Medical - Products
|
Shares
Outstanding:
38.6 Million
|
|
Price:
$27.40 (at close 11/28/03)
|
Day's
Volume:
113,793 (at close 11/28/03)
|
Shares
In Float:
17.4 Million
|
|
52
Wk High: $30.00
|
50-Day
Avg Vol: 466,000
|
Up/Down
Vol Ratio: 1.1
|
|
Pivot
Point:
$27.10 (09/03/03 high plus .10)
|
Pivot
Point +5% = Max Buy Price:
$28.45
|

Financials,
StockTalk,
News,
Chart ,
SEC,
Zacks Reports
Profile:
Kyphon
Inc. develops medical devices to restore spinal
anatomy and instruments for use during spine
surgeries. Surgeons
use the company’s tools to help repair fractures
caused by osteoporosis.
Minimally invasive procedures utilize the
company’s proprietary balloon technology.
The company lacks a great annual earnings
history, yet after having turned the corner to
profitability five quarters ago the earnings trend
looks solid. Earnings
per share in the quarterly financial report of Dec
’02 versus the year earlier were +$0.02 vs
-$0.18, while Mar ’03 was +$0.03 vs
-$0.06, Jun ’03 was +$0.07 vs -$0.15.
In the latest report Sep ’03 earnings were +$0.11
vs +$0.02. The number of mutual funds
with an ownership interest has risen from 42 to
57 from Dec ’02 to present.
What
to Look For and Look Out For:
Any new low close under those of the previous week
could be a sign of deterioration.
A break under its prior Aug/Sept highs would
not be good, and even worse would be a violation of
its 50 DMA. Each
would be considered an even greater sign of more
serious danger, while for now the stock appears to be
an excellent buy candidate that has consolidated back
to find firm support at a range near its prior highs.
There is only a little bit of resistance to be
expected in the stock now, as a small amount of
overhead supply was created as it traded higher in the
first week of November.
It may be on course to soon challenge its
all-time highs. A
true sign of institutional buying demand would be
higher than average volume with a price rise through
$29 and $30.
If intense demand appears, one might even
consider adding to an existing position.
Technical
Analysis: The
high volume gains as KYPH charged back above its 50
DMA in late-October helped it break a previous
downward trend, and on 10/31/03 its gap up (circled)
to new highs lifted it with volume above the pivot
point I’ve used.
While it had traded as high as $27 on
9/03/03, its close that day at $25.85 was its
highest close (where the green line was drawn).
Its summertime highs have been acting as a
support zone lately, while it held well above its
50-day moving average line after reversing from its
lows on 11/17/03.
Each month our stock picks are
compiled by several expert contributors who hand-pick
these ideas:
Kenneth
J. Gruneisen - A
Registered Investment Advisor & Registered
Principal, Ken manages a Source Capital Group
(Member NASD,SIPC) branch office and offers
personalized assistance.
(954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399 or email kgruneisen@
sourcegrp.com |
Mark
Van Kampen
- an
independent investment analyst with more than 20
years of experience. mvankampen
@aol.com |
Tate
Dwinnell -
Private Investor. Holds a
Western Washington University degree focused in
Mathematics and Economics and is a member of
the American
Association of Individual Investors
|
John
Derway - Vice President, Coburn
& Meredith. A
Stockbroker and Registered Investment Advisor for
25 years.
150 Trumbull Street, Hartford, CT 06103 1-800-825-2244
ext.334
jderway@
coburnfinancial.com |
Dee
Hendon -
Professional technical market analyst. Years of
experience in investing and using CANSLIM. |
Richard
Miller - Statistics
professional and serious trader with years of
technical analysis-based trading. He currently
manages six different portfolios. He maintains his
own website
of stock analysis. rwmill@yahoo.com1 |
|
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MARKET |
SENSE |
|
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Getting
Ready For The Tax Man
The
end of the year has finally come and we all know
what that means; the Tax Man is coming!
There
are so many important things that one must think
about and do at the coming of December and the
start of the new year. I believe it is of most
importance that we all take a day or two to
gather all the necessary information for our
accountant or ourselves so that we don’t have
to even think about it once the new year comes.
We
all tend to say, “I’ll do it later; there is
plenty of time”. But the reality is to take
care of those receipts, deductions, and
expenses, etc. today so that you can spend more
time doing the more important things such as
writing up your new year’s goals and then
setting up system that will allow you to follow
those goals.
Before
you start, place all receipts and other
documentation that is required to complete your
taxes, a pen or marker, and a box of envelopes.
The following is what I suggest for you to do in
order to get prepared for that dreadful tax
deadline:
1.
Go to a place where you have time to be
alone and you have some privacy. Interruptions
can break your concentration and might lead to
costly mistakes.
2.
Put on some comfy clothing and some music
you can think to. I recommend Mozart. Don’t
forget to get a snack. Oh, and of course, my
favorite, a nice warm cappuccino made with heavy
whipping cream and brown sugar or green tea with
honey.
3.
Gather up all the receipts and other
pertinent tax documentation. Remember that you
should receive, by law, your W2’s, 1099’s
and brokerage account gains and losses reports,
before the end of January 2004. Note: If
you have a business (or several of them), then you
must keep and organize each business expense
separately for each Schedule C.
4.
Now you are ready to organize all of the
receipts and pertinent documentation for this
coming tax season. If you do the organizing, you
could save some money and avoid paying your accountant
to organize all of this. You may also
ask your accountant as to how he or she would
like you to organize. Depending on how much
paperwork you have, this could take you two
hours or two days (with a few breaks in between of
course).
5.
Take all receipts and other documentation
and separate them into the different categories
such as gas and car expenses, mortgage interest,
utility bills, food, gifts, donations, parking
fees and tolls, business expenses such as
license fees, income, fees paid to your
accountant the previous year, etc.
6.
Once
you are done, mark your envelopes accordingly
and place all receipts and other pertinent
documents into the corresponding envelope. Also,
make sure you write the year on each envelope,
mark the envelope personal or business (and which
business it is, if you have several of them).
Make sure you save these envelops in one place
so that you may easily place any new receipts
into them until the end of December 31, 2003. Note:
If you have made credit card purchases, it would
be wise to keep all of those receipts so that you
may file them into the envelopes according to
the appropriate category. It would be more
difficult to categorize all of your expenses with
the use of a monthly credit card statement that
does not offer categorizing features required
for the effective completion of your taxes.
7.
Now that you are organized and ready for
the tax man, you can have some fun and work on
your New Year’s resolutions while practically
everyone else around you is procrastinating
(as April 15 gets
closer) and rushing at the
last minute. You don't want to be facing possible penalties
because you did not take the time to properly
prepare for this important
day!
Happy
New Year!
Do
not forget to make your retirement
account contributions before April 15 of the
coming year! May
you accomplish all your New Years Resolutions!
-
Article by Soraya Nasrallah, Registered
Representative, Source Capital Group, Inc.
Members NASD/SIPC
Soraya
Nasrallah, obtained her Series 7 license in 1992, and
has served in the capacity of Sales Assistant, Head of
Operations Department, and Stockbroker. Contact Soraya Nasrallah via email at
snasrallah@sourcegrp.com or by phone at (954)785-1990 for assistance you with your portfolio. She will be pleased to offer ideas that suit your investment needs, and she can help you achieve the gains you have been searching for.
Miss Nasrallah has just introduced a new educational program
called StockWiz News! specifically created for
teenagers and novice investors, incorporating stock
market basics with CANSLIM in a colorful and picturesque
format. It is the perfect gift for those who just
don’t know much about the world of stocks and
investing!
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a
NASD/SIPC member firm.
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SPECIAL |
REPORT |
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Buying
CANSLIM Stocks in Multi-Day Pullbacks
Frequently, fundamentally sound stocks
undergoing accumulation do so through multi-day pullbacks (i.e., by making a
series of lower daily highs) before entering longer periods of consolidation
where multi-week “cup & handle” or range-bound patterns form. One
advantage to buying these pullbacks is their well-defined trade management
criteria (see chart - SE): entry points (buying when today’s price exceeds
yesterday’s high) and stop-loss points (selling below the low of the
pullback).
Another is their predictability, both in depth and duration. Examples are
evident in SE’s daily chart where a variety of multi-day pullbacks are
identified by letters a through p.
The market psychology leading to pullback
formation is understood best in terms of alternating buying and selling
pressures as price first rises then pulls back. Fundamentally sound companies
draw buyers and buying pressure dominates, then the price rises to the point
where owners worry about the profits they’ve earned. Short sellers step in. A
pullback then results as selling pressure takes over and the price falls for a
few days to the point where buyers recognize a bargain and return.
"...a point is
reached where greed enters, buyers again rule and price climbs."
To give you an idea of their frequency, I
evaluated for 2003 the number and the length of pullbacks for CANSLIM market
leaders cross-screened against Zacks 1 & 2 rankings: a sample of 19,960
trading days from 88 stocks. Using the additional criteria of examining only
those pullbacks occurring in an environment where their 50-day moving average
was rising, 28.7% of those days were in pullback: 13.2% (1 day),
7.6% (2 days), 4.1% (3 days), 2.1% (4 days), 1.0% (5
days), 0.4% (6 days), and 0.3% (>6 days). Several are evident
on the SE chart. For stocks of this quality, pullbacks greater than three days
are rare and usually buyable.

The SE chart demonstrates
typical pullback structures. Once the pullback begins, price frequently falls to
an area of prior support:
(1)
An area where price has reversed earlier, e.g, the depth of valley c
reaches mid July’s peak
(2)
The vicinity of a major moving average - SE often reversed at its 20-day
moving average
(3)
The depth near common Fibonacci ratios (38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%).
For example, b to c reverses 39.3% of the a
to b rise. The d to e pullback
reverses 33.2% of the c to d rise. The f
to g pullback reverses 65.4% of the e to f
rise. The m to n pullback reverses 55.3%
of the i to m rise. Finally, the o to
p pullback reverses 64.7% of the n to o
rise.
Other features that mark the coming pullback’s
reversal include narrowing daily bars, a reversal of the open high-close low
pattern, increased volume, and a long-tailed candle formation (called a “hammer”).
Fibonacci ratios (see sidebar below) can be
used to measure the balance between human fear and greed: as price falls fear
dominates and sellers rule, but a point is reached where greed enters, buyers
again rule and price climbs.
I recently polled a group of 121
traders for their preference in initiating a pullback reversal. They were shown
a picture of rising daily bars and asked to choose a point at which they thought
a pullback would be reversed. The results are telling: 2% of those
traders chose a 12% reversal, none selected a 19% reversal, 5%
chose a 27% reversal, 77% picked amongst a 38%, 50%,
or 62% reversal, 9% of the traders chose a 75% reversal,
and 5% chose a 91% reversal. As the results of the poll indicate,
it’s natural for us to initiate the reversal over a share price range close to
the Fibonacci ratios.
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The Fibonacci Series
“1—1—2—3—5—8—13—21—34—55—89—144—233—377—610—to
infinity”
This
famous sequence of numbers, in which each number is derived as the sum
of its two preceding numbers, appears in areas as diverse as nature,
mathematics, and architecture: the
leaf arrangement of common plants, the spiral shell of the chambered
nautilus, the sets of spirals evident in the arrangement of pinecone
seedlings, even the lengths of the longest to shortest bone in your
fingers are examples. Mathematically,
the ratio of a larger number in this series to its immediate precursor
(e.g., 610/377 = 1.618) approaches the “Golden Ratio,” which
also has interesting properties. For
example, one obtains the square of the ratio by simply adding one (i.e.,
1.6182 =
2.618), and the forward ratio equals the reverse ratio minus one
(i.e., 377/610 = 0.618).
Fibonacci
numbers and their ratios have influenced art and architecture over the
centuries. To quote Trudi Garland in Fascinating Fibonaccis:
“There seems to be a visually pleasing quality to these numbers
and their relationship to each other that has appealed to humanity’s
sense of beauty since the beginning of recorded history.”
The exterior dimensions of Athens’ Parthenon, built in 440 BC,
were built using the proportions of the golden ratio, and Leonardo da
Vinci also used this “divine” proportion in his Mona Lisa.
I
think that this famous ratio also reflects the human balance of fear and
greed that plays out time and again daily in the market.
As Derrik Hobbs said in Fibonacci for the Active Trader,
“…Fibonacci is the mathematical structure of the growth and
decay of psychological interest in a stock. By understanding this
structure you can identify where the emotional shifts between euphoria
and pessimism in the markets will come.” |
-
RIchard Miller
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Richard
Miller, statistics professional and serious
trader with years of technical analysis-based trading. He currently manages six
different portfolios and is the developer
of the Triple Screen Method: a
Unique Combination of Fundamentals, Value, and Technical
Analysis - Available from his
website: http://home.att.net/~miller.richard.w.p/index.html
Email rwmill@yahoo.com
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SPECIAL
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ARTICLE |
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The
Tax Act of 2003: Should
You Buy More Dividend-Paying Stocks?
When
Congress passed the Tax Act of 2003, taxes were
lowered on capital gains and dividends. Due to the new
changes, stock ownership may be more attractive and
there will be increased focus on dividend-paying
stocks when making investment decisions. In this
article, I will discuss the Tax Act changes and how
they may affect your investment strategy.
Long-term
capital gains are those resulting from the sale of
stocks that have been held for more than one year.
Prior to the Tax Act, long-term capital gains
were taxed at a rate of 20%.
Now they will be taxed at a rate of 15%.
This will save you taxes when you sell a stock
you have held for more than a year. If you have been
holding some stocks for a long time, now may be a good
time to consider selling them at the lower tax rate
(assuming you have a profit) and rebalancing your
portfolio. At
the same time, it doesn’t make sense to hold a stock
more than year if it is headed down and losing in
value.
"Dividend-paying stocks may be especially
desirable for individuals looking for more income from
their investments as opposed to being dependent on
growth"
Short-term
capital gains resulting from the sale of stocks held
less than one year will continue to be taxed as
ordinary income.
However, ordinary income tax rates were lowered
with the new Tax Act, meaning short-term capital gains
will effectively be taxed less.
The previous ordinary income tax rates of 27%,
30%, 35%, and 38.6% were lowered
to 25%, 28%, 33%, and 35%,
respectively. Again,
if you held a stock under a year, you will be paying
fewer taxes on any gains.
Prior
to the Tax Act of 2003, dividends received from stock
ownership were taxed at your ordinary income rate.
Now they will be taxed at a rate of 15%.
No matter what income bracket you are in, there
will be significant savings.
Dividend-paying stocks may be especially
desirable for individuals looking for more income from
their investments as opposed to being dependent on
growth (a rise in stock price).
For instance, the more stable, dividend-paying
stocks are often preferred during retirement,
providing regular income with less risk than growth
stocks.
If
you decide to buy and hold dividend-paying stocks, you
will receive regular income, paid quarterly in the
form of a dividend check.
If the stock also increases in value, then
there is added benefit should you decide to sell the
stock at a later date.
But simply looking for dividend stocks carries
a downside as well.
I
find it useful to convert the dividend percentage into
real dollars and compare it to the stock’s price
history. Why?
To see if I am better off holding the
stock for the dividend, or looking more to growth
stocks. After
all, I believe that it is the absolute return on your investment that really matters.
For
instance, if you own a $50 stock that pays a 5%
annual dividend, the 5% is equal to $2.50
(.05 x $50 = $2.50).
The 5% represents a $2.50 move in
the price of the stock. If the stock drops from $50 to $47.50, you have
effectively wiped out the dividend when you look at
total return. As you probably know, a stock can drop $2.50 in one day!
I often hear people say they own a stock
because it pays a certain dividend, yet when you look
at the price of the stock, it may be dropping in
value. Who
wants to own stocks for dividends if their net worth
is actually declining?
You might end up paying less percentage of
taxes, but lose even more in terms of your net than
the dividends are worth to you.
Therefore,
don’t buy a stock based solely on an attractive
dividend. Look
at the available technical and fundamental information
and make your decisions similar to how you would for any other stock.
My approach is to only buy stocks that I
believe are headed up; if they pay a dividend that is
an extra bonus. Looking
at it a different way, the same $50 stock that
rises to $52.50 is actually worth $55 ($2.50
rise in stock value + $2.50 dividend).
This
is not a complete review of the Tax Act of 2003, but I
have attempted to cover the main changes, and provide
some insight on the decision to select dividend-paying
stocks. Consult
your accountant or tax advisor for further
clarification or explanation of how the new Tax Act
will affect your specific situation, especially how it
relates to tax-deferred distributions from a 401(k) or
IRA.
-
Charles B. Schaap
traderdoc@stockmarketstore.com
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Charles B. Schaap
and his wife Candy run a web site that features great gifts for the stock market
enthusiast on your shopping list.
www.stockmarketstore.com
Phone: 480.634.8975 Fax: 480.634.8976
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EDITOR'S |
LETTER
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Another Year, Another
Reason, ‘Tis The Season
Well here we are!
Another year has just about gone by and we now find
ourselves once again in that somewhat familiar and
even comforting setting, the Holiday Season - from the
tryptophan-induced long November weekend through
December’s pop of a champagne cork at the stroke of
midnight. No matter your faith, religion, or creed
from Thanksgiving through New Years you are bound to
be spending quality time with family, friends, and
loved ones. As the song goes… “It’s the most
wonderful time of the year”. Be merry, rejoice, and
renew.
This time of the year
is also know as the time for giving, and thanks to the
help of all of our new CANSLIM.net StockNews members
were are able to donate a substantial amount of money
to the American Red Cross. For the entire month of
November we collected 5%
of our gross subscription revenue and gave it to this
non-religious, non-political, nationally-based
organization which provides a whole range of
charitable services - disaster relief, blood supplies,
assistance to the military and military families, to
name just a few of its many services. We are grateful
for the opportunity to give back, and thankful for your help in
making it all possible.
Over
the past year, as
CANSLIM.net has continued to grow and become more
successful, it has been both fun and challenging for
us to keep up. Our subscriber base continues to expand
and we keep receiving accolades from those
subscribers. Thanks to everyone for your kind words.
They mean a lot to us, and every positive note is
shared with the entire office staff.
Looking forward and
navigating into next year, the plan is to generally
stay the course. “We want to keep doing what we are doing” is what I
always try
to instill in everyone here. We want to continue to
keep our fingers on the pulse of what the CANSLIM-oriented
investor needs. We want to provide a great and
improving service at an affordable price. We want to treat
our subscribers with respect and always give top notch
customer service. We want to continue to hire
individuals who are honest and of superb
character.
In addition to that, we
have some incredible new features planned for the
coming year for our CANSLIM.net StockNews membership.
I don't want to give away all the surprises, but be
prepared for a multimedia experience as part of your
paid subscription. Text and graphs are a good way to
communicate, but it is nice to have other options as
some folks would prefer.
If you have someone on
your gift list who has an interest in investing, you
can give them a CANSLIM.net StockNews Membership (just
like yours). This is an excellent gift for any
investor, novice or professional, who is looking for
excellent research and timely information on CANSLIM-based
stocks. Giving a gift membership is easy, we have a
special form set up on the site or, of course, you can
call our subscription department at 1-800-965-8307 or
954-785-1121.
We hope you and your
loved ones have a safe and happy holiday season.
As always, best wishes
for your financial success.

James F. Taulman
COO, CANSLIM.net, Inc.
Editor-in-Chief, CANSLIM.net News
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Comments contained in the body of this report are technical
opinions only and are not necessarily those of CANSLIM.net.
The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to
be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness
cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may
effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any
recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities
mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any
recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for
all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or
solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of
any securities. This is an unsolicited opinion, and
CANSLIM.net has not been compensated in any way by the
company(s) mentioned in this report.
CAN SLIM
(written here as "CANSLIM" or "Canslim:) is a registered trademark of William O'Neil + Co.
CANSLIM.net is not owned nor affiliated with William
O'Neil + Co. or any of their subsidiaries including The
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