CANSLIM.net News
"A Vital Source for the CANSLIM Investor" 

Volume 5, Issue 10 - $6.95 
Monday, December 2nd, 2002

Home | Stock Screening Tool | Stock Alert Reports | Member Login | Help!


Be Confident in this Market Until You See a Reason to Believe Otherwise

by Kenneth J. Gruneisen, Registered Investment Advisor, Source Capital Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC

Our headline last month was critical of the new rally, saying that it lacked conviction. We urged readers not to guess about what would happen next, but to watch the market closely and not be too complacent about the prospects of another awful plunge. Thankfully, we have seen increasing conviction on the buy side and much improvement in the past month. So, if you took your clues from the action in the major indices, you probably started moving some of your sidelined cash into stocks by now.

What? Are you still in doubt about the market’s prospects for a sustained rally? After several weeks of consolidation following their run from the October 10th lows, the indices started again showing encouraging action in early November. The market had particularly strong action on November 1st and 4th. Then the indices stalled for another couple of weeks, but they resumed their bullish action on the 20th. And when the major indices spiked higher on November 21st it became rather clear that institutional buying was driving the market higher. Volume totals spiked up noticeably, making it clear that mutual fund managers were aggressively piling into stocks.

On a technical note, the Nasdaq Composite peaked as high as 1497.44 on Friday, November 29th as it challenged its 200-day moving average line (now at 1,494.84). The Nasdaq Composite is clearly setting the pace among the major indices, and the tech-heavy index has already topped its August highs, while the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average have yet to do so.  

The indices have already chalked up impressive percentage gains from their respective October lows, with the Dow Industrials up almost 24%, the S&P 500 Index up nearly 22%, and Nasdaq Composite up more than 33%. Nothing goes straight up, and some would say that the indices are due for some weakness on profit taking. At this point, however, investors should remain confident about the market until they see any reason to believe otherwise. The market seems to have built a good deal of momentum, and it would take a few tough distribution days to really become worrisome. Rather than the defensive areas, lately much of the strength has been in the technology sector. We are seeing fewer failed breakouts and good action in areas that normally fuel a healthy rally.

Some uncertainty has been removed while things we mentioned last month as possible market catalysts such as the elections, and FOMC meeting (which included a ½ point interest rate cut) are now behind us. Encouraging economic reports have included a dip in jobless claims and strong 4% growth in third-quarter GDP.

Here is another encouraging sign. In the week ended November 26th US stock funds had a $3.5 billion inflow, the strongest surge since mid-May according to AMG Data Services. Did you notice how there were reports of fund outflows in recent months, long after the indices had begun their plunge, yet now there are inflows after the market has already rallied a long way? This shows how investors commonly react after seeing what the market is doing. In the downturn, the more ground that the market lost, the more investors wanted to pull their money out. But in an upswing, as the market gains ground, even more investors want to put their money in.

Market’s Leading Groups
CANSLIM fans all know that your odds of success are much greater when choosing stocks among the top performing industry groups in the market. Right now that list includes a lot of the following:

- Internet (Content, Security, E-Commerce)
- Computer (Software, Memory, Manufacturing, Services),
- Telecomm (Wireless, Fiber Optics, Equipment, Services)
- Medical (Generic Drugs, Products/Equipment),
- Leisure (Toys, Movies, Gaming),
- Finance (Banks, Savings & Loans, Brokers).

More Ideal Bases May be Formed on Orderly Consolidation 
by Gary Kaltbaum
As a longer-term bear, I am constantly looking for "chinks in the armor" for this rally that started seven weeks ago. On a weekly basis, I have been listing for you the good and the bad. As of today, nothing has changed.

The split market I have told you about remains. While
 the "speculative" TECH, TELCO, INTERNET, BIOTECH, SEMIS continue to do well, a long list of sectors are continuing to act poorly. Even with the split tape, I just don’t see any technical reason to believe this rally is about to end any time soon. The real question is about how much farther this rally has to go. Every pullback is met with another bout of buying. This is in stark contrast to the action leading up to October’s low. Just last week, the market was blasted on Tuesday...only to recover on Wednesday.

From a near-term point of view, go slow. As I pen this report, futures are smoking this morning on an Intel upgrade and strong retail numbers from Friday. I just feel that the TECH market is extended here on a technical basis...and now...strategists are jumping on the bandwagon... evidenced by an upgrade of WIRELESS stocks this morning. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are also nearing their respective 200-day averages, which could lead to some stalling action. A break to the upside on these averages would be a positive.

It is also remains important to note that the sentiment front remains unexciting as bearish advisors are at a very low reading of 25%, the VIX and VXN are stretched to the downside and put/calls continue to have complacent readings.

As far as breakouts go, not much to chew on this weekend. Only a few names popped out of bases like WFMI, RINO, NWRE.  I will say this. If the market continues to pull back in an orderly fashion, expect more bases to be formed. Only time will tell... but so far...so good. Unlike my fantasy football team, which is now a fabulous 3-9, the market continues to put in a good effort.

Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over $100 million under management. He is also the Senior Markets Technician at TradingMarkets.com. He can be heard nightly on his nationally syndicated radio show "Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations and across the world on the internet. He has been featured on the FOX News Channel ,CNBC, Bloomberg TV and is regularly quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones News, Reuters, AP, RealMoney.com, USA Today and Bloomberg.


INVESTING FOR THE NEW MILLENNIUM

Green Light! More of the Right Things are Happening
by Kenneth J. Gruneisen, Registered Investment Advisor, Source Capital Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC

If you are continuing to track the major indices then you noticed the recent pattern of one or two up days on heavier volume followed by a couple of days where the market digests the gains on lighter trading. This is just the kind of action you want to be seeing at the start of a new bull market. Readers of IBD might have also noticed in recent weeks that the major indices formed cup-with-handle chart patterns and then broke out. This is not a guarantee that the major indices can’t turn downward, but if that happens it would be surprising to see a bad technical failure and October’s lows retested. Lately the market has a lot of momentum, more high ranked leaders are breaking out and not failing.

If you missed the first few breakouts out of the gate you probably shouldn’t chase them and pay a price more than 5% above their pivot point. An "opportunity of a lifetime" comes along every couple of weeks in the stock market so don’t get flustered. The next time you see a high-ranked leader breaking to new highs on above average volume, lifting off from a base at least six weeks in duration, you might not want to be hesitant.

"Fundamentally sound stocks within 10-15% of their 
highs are great candidates to keep on your watch list."

Bear markets leave many investors too petrified to jump in even when the right things start happening. The right things have finally been happening. Hopefully this doesn’t come to you as something surprising to hear. In this newsletter we’ve continually been preaching caution, defense, and the importance of capital preservation so that our readers would have a load of sidelined cash for just such a time. Now, failing to latch onto some ideas from the first group of new leaders can have you missing out on a lot of the market’s easiest big gains.

Fundamentally sound stocks within 10-15% of their highs are great candidates to keep on your watch list. The best stock selections are likely to come from a group that has plenty of other stocks confirming that the idea you are considering is in a strong sector that the market is favoring. I always take the time to look at the new highs list every day, and know that it is wise to consider stocks from within a group that is among the top five groups with the most new highs showing up.

As contrary indicators go, we can find some encouragement in the fact that over the past couple of weeks the percentage of bullish advisors has been tapering off a bit, rather than continuing to climb. Also, a number of clients I have recently talked to about purchasing a couple of emerging leaders have voiced concern that the market has already rallied a lot and that it might be due for another pullback. It is actually good that a lot of people are scared and pessimistic. If it people were unanimously bullish there would be very little fuel left to drive the market higher. Right?

Here’s another interesting point to look at. Downgrades! For some odd reason it seems that analysts these days are anxious to issue downgrades based upon valuations. Most stocks have been shrugging off such news, and with the market willing, they will probably continue higher. But among some of the strongest emerging new leaders in the latest rally I have seen a number of really great looking stocks hit with virtually senseless downgrades. In some cases these ridiculous fools are saying that the stocks have reached their target so they are reducing them from "strong buy" to "buy", or from "buy" to "hold", or from "over-weight" to "market perform" in those special cases where they really want to sound like they know what is going on.

I am not just saying this to jump on an easy target to make fun of these days, and it is not as if any of these calls seem to be doing much damage. Mind you, this is just another great contrary indicator. When I see it happening it almost makes me glad to see it, and it definitely makes me wonder if maybe they are on the short side! For if they were really long the stock, wouldn’t they simply raise their target and pound the table saying you should buy it? Who really knows what to make of these analysts’ opinions? If you say it is a "hold" you must think it has potential to go up, so why doesn’t it make sense to buy it? Oh, is that too risky? Then why hold it?


STOCKS TO WATCH IN THIS NEW MARKET
- Timely Stock Ideas Based Largely on CANSLIM - 

Now that market conditions have clearly been turning toward a more cheerful season, we decided to expand the usual "Ideas Worth a Closer Look" section to include a longer list of high-ranked issues you should be sure to watch. This gives you a wider list of ideas to focus on that are among the most suitable purchase candidates under the guidelines outlined by O’Neil in "How to Make Money in Stocks".

Coach Inc. (NYSE – COH)
Another top ranked stock from the Retail-Apparel/Shoe group. It had a bumpy ride this past year, but the recent action has been undeniably bullish. From both a fundamental and technical perspective this is an attractive looking leader in a strong group. It might be more desirable to look to pick up shares on a dip back closer to its 50-day moving average line, where it is normal to see institutional support step up in a healthy stock. Notice the way on November 11
th it bounced off of that important short-term average.

Eon Labs Inc (Nasdaq – ELAB)
One of the top choices in the Medical-Generic Drugs group that is ranked 16
th among IBD’s 197 Industry Groups. It has high ranks and has marched steadily higher since its May IPO. A close above its November 14 highest-ever close at $24.38 would grab our attention, especially if volume surges. Its up/down volume ratio of 2.0 makes it very clear the stock is trading higher volume on up days and lighter volume on down days.

Verisity Limited (Nasdaq - VRST)
This is a high ranked leader in the Computer-Graphics group, and a company that was first mentioned in our "Ideas Worth a Closer Look" section back in April of this year. At that time its breakout promptly failed, disappointing us and then spending eight months consolidating. In the past month it has jumped back above its 200-day moving average and in the past week it spiked up on heavy volume to get back within striking distance of all-time highs.

 

Blue Rhino Corporation (Nasdaq – RINO)
In the last couple of years this company has come a long way, but it is difficult to not mention it after its latest high-volume breakout from a six-week base of consolidation. It is a leader in the Consumer Products-Misc category, and has been coming through again and again with big earnings and sales increases over the year earlier numbers. It is extended a bit above its 50-day moving average where it found recent support. Maybe this RINO will keep on charging.

 

Nutraceutical Intl Corp. (Nasdaq –NUTR)
Building a long, flat base since it was mentioned in our "Ideas Worth a Closer Look" section in September, this lightly traded issue popped to new highs last week as volume rose above its average trading levels for the past six sessions straight. It has high ranks and confirming strength in the Cosmetics/Personal Care group going for it. That fact that it is small (only 11.1 million shares are outstanding) could lead to an explosive rise in price if institutional demand continues to grow.

 

Zebra Tech Corp Cl A (Nasdaq – ZBRA)
The same remarks concerning LXK might be said for ZBRA, as some investors think a $64.22 stock is lacking in explosive upside potential. If they moved the decimal point over a notch and called it a $6.42 stock with 315 million shares (instead of the 31.5 million outstanding that it really has) the same group of amateurs would likely get excited. There are legitimate reasons that this particular company has such high ranks and a very bullish chart. It is attracting strong interest from institutional investors, and these pros don’t flinch at the higher price tag.

Ross Stores Inc. (Nasdaq – ROST)
This is a high-ranked leader in the Retail-Apparel/Shoe group that should be no stranger to long-time CANSLIM fans. It was among the first ideas featured at CANSLIM.net back as early as 1997. Consumers these days are more cost conscious, and the discount retailers seems to be outpacing other parts of the retail group. Its chart is bullish and its ranks are high. If volume kicks into high gear and the price rises through $46, 47,48 what else can we assume but things are looking great.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (Nasdaq – GILD)
Truly a high-ranked leader in the Medical-Biomed/Biotech group. That group is presently ranked 6th among IBD’s 197 Industry Groups. It has a bullish chart but it would be nicer to see an eyebrow-raising high volume day with a nice jump over $40. One thing that is a bit of a bother is that its 195 million shares outstanding make it a bit larger than what we consider the most ideal size (30 million).

Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE – WCN)
A leader that sports high ranks and a bullish chart in the Pollution Control-Svcs group. Unfortunately its recent rise to new highs seems to have happened a bit casually, where normally we’d expect to see a big bang, and confirmation of its recent new highs in its Relative Strength line would also be helpful. One other thing that stands out as worrisome would be its sub par Accumulation/Distribution rank. Those might be areas to watch for improvement.

Lexmark International A (NYSE – LXK)
Many novice investors who think that high-priced stocks don’t have as much potential for big gains are likely to pass on this high ranked leader from the Computer-Peripheral Eqp group. The truth is that is the best-ranked overall leader in the group and clearly is a favorite of institutional investors based on solid fundamental growth. It appears ready to break above its May 2001 highs in the $70 range and begin another leg up. Don’t be surprised if it actually turns out to be cheap at the current price.

 

Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm

Further information is always available upon request. If you know anyone that may have an interest in receiving this or any of our other reports, please call our office locally at (954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399 or email kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com


HOW ARE THEY NOW?
Follow up on the Last 4 Stock Ideas that were Previously Profiled in "Ideas Worth a Closer Look"

Something can be learned from studying past experiences both good and bad. Below you will find follow-up commentary on ideas featured in the two previous issues of this newsletter. These remarks help to explain critical technical trading points or news events that occurred which had an obvious impact on the price action of these issues.

Anteon Intl Corp. (NYSE:ANT)
Last month we said that at best Anteon’s troubles would be hard to overcome. It was not at all surprising to see it continue dropping all the way down to the $19 area (1) where it had support at prior July/Aug lows (2). Despite news of several new multi-million dollar contracts the stock still is in the "damaged goods" category based on the technical breakdown and not one to be seriously considered. This example is worth studying only for the lessons that can be learned about selling with a small 7-8% loss, or when a stock breaks under its 50-day moving average on high volume (3).


The Cooper Companies, Inc. (NYSE:COO)
This is a great example of how a healthy stock normally finds support at its 50-day moving average line (1). And do not be confused by today’s substantially lower share price, since it was adjusted on 11/25 upon a 2-for-1 split. Stocks in the Medical-Products group are still providing some market leadership, despite the fallout among HMO stocks adjacent to the group. Watch for a reaction to its earnings announcement due after the close on 12/12. It would not be surprising if the action leading up to that date might give investors a hint as to what might be expected.


 

Exactech Inc. (NASDAQ:EXAC)
After getting off to a great start in the first few trading days of November (1) the stock has been building a very tight flat base. New management was added on 11/8 when the firm announced three key appointments in a move to further escalate the company’s strong sales and marketing activities. While it is not a heavily traded issue to begin with, make note of the way its daily trading volume has dried up (2) while the stock has traded sideways. When a stock remains perched up near all-time highs and there are simply not a lot of willing sellers, this it is usually a very good sign.


PEC Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ:PECS)
After several weeks of ordinary consolidation it spiked higher on heavier volume on 11/25 with no news at all on the newswires concerning the company (1). Of course, on that day President Bush signed legislation creating the Department of Homeland Security, which helps to account for the action since the company mostly engages in business with government agencies. Unfortunately, that brings to mind how Anteon’s troubles started when it said the government agencies it deals with were slow in paying. Still, a large amount of existing short interest in PECS reveals what could easily become a source of much additional buying.


Of Mice And Elephants
Article by Soraya Nasrallah, Registered Representative, Source Capital Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC

Some of you may be saying right now, "What in the world is she going to write about this month?!". Well, if you are a fan of CANSLIM, you know exactly what I am going to write about! In this article, the mice are the small investors and the elephants are the large institutions.

It has been more than seven weeks that the market has been in an up trend. Even though the chances of are pull back are unavoidable, it is clear to see that the path to recuperation is being paved for us and we must be prepared to follow it.

Many investors are still nursing stocks that have faltered and practically died, like Lennie in Steinbeck’s "Of Mice and Men", who continued to carry and stroke a dead rabbit for quite some time. It is important to concentrate your investment dollars in your winning stocks and not continue to hold or keep buying more of the losers. CANSLIM followers know that by following a 7-8% selling discipline, you cut your losses before they destroy you.

"One of the Keys to Taking Advantage of a New Bull
Market is to Watch What the Elephants Are Doing!"

Most of the wealth is usually created during the beginning of a new bull market. The sad part is that most of us are not sure as to when the bear is headed for hibernation and the bull is sharpening its horns. That has been the big question for the past months if not years. As we all know by now, the economists and analysts don’t always know the answers. You are better off taking your clues from the charts of the major indexes. If you are glued to CNBC in search of the answer, you won’t be able to make rational decisions for your portfolio.

One of the keys to taking advantage of a new bull market is to watch what the Elephants are doing! You know, the banks, investment companies and pension funds. The Institutional Investors! Large sums of money are being held on the sidelines waiting eagerly for the next gravy train! That new Bull Market is closer as we speak, and once the Institutions start pouring in their money, you must be prepared to jump right in! Making sure that you don’t buy when a stock has gotten extended (more than 10% from its breakout) is one of the keys to our success!

Let me offer you a quick sample of how important it is for you to follow these Institutions. Do you remember back in March of 2000 when stocks started to tumble? While I am sure you don’t really want to discuss it, if you take time to look at the charts of the companies that got clobbered you can identify a distinctive pattern that they all have. This very important chart action is clearly revealed in the declines in price accompanied by a larger than average volume. Hold on and let me rephrase that - "Accompanied by HUGE volume!" If that did not scare you, I don’t know what can. In the movie "Amityville Horror" the new owners enter the house and they hear a ghostly voice that says, "GET OUT!" Well, that’s what investors should have done because that is what the charts were saying, and that is exactly what the elephants were doing. Which do you think could cause such big ripples, the elephants or the mice?

But Wait! The same thing happens when the market turns around and stock prices start escalating! Yes, when you see stocks hitting new price highs accompanied by huge volume it is a pretty clear sign that it is time to get in. Unlike the ghostly voice that scares you away, this time it is more like when you are going to a holiday party, and when you knock on your neighbor’s door you hear a cheerful and pleasant, "COME IN!"

With a new Bull Market on the horizon you must be prepared. In the same way that the actions of the elephants, the institutional investors’ (the "I" in CANSLIM) moves were noticeable at the outset of the collapse, if you recognize their moves now it will enable you to foresee the possible heights of stocks and get on board.


Ever Considered Using a Buy Stop Order?
You should be able to spot more ideal purchase candidates if you continuously monitor the high-ranked leaders that are trading up on above average volume. One strategy that you might use if you don’t have the ability to watch the market all day long involves the use of "buy stop" orders. This kind of order is the opposite of a "sell stop" order, which investors commonly call a "stop loss" since it becomes an order to sell only if the stock drops to a certain point, often preventing more substantial losses. With a "buy stop" order you pick a point (such as the pivot point) at which you would like to have your buy order triggered. When the stock trades up to your designated price your order then becomes a market order to buy.

Why not go ahead and buy the stock earlier and a little cheaper if you like it? Because you really only want to get into it once you’ve seen real proof that the buying demand there is sufficient enough to drive the price to new highs. We are not trying to be psychic like television’s infamous Miss Cleo. No! We are not guessing what might happen, but simply reacting to what is actually happening. This technique might make sense in those cases where you don’t have time to react.

Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm.

Further information is always available upon request. If you know anyone that may have an interest in receiving this or any of our other reports, please call our office locally at (954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399 or email kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com


The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. This is an unsolicited opinion, and CANSLIM.net, Inc. has not been compensated in any way by the company(s) mentioned in this report.

Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of CANSLIM.net, Inc.  The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto.  Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities.  This is an unsolicited opinion, and CANSLIM.net, Inc. has not been compensated in any way by the company(s) mentioned in this report.

Charts provided by www.stockcharts.com

Copyright © 1999-2001 CANSLIM.net. All rights reserved.
Protected by the copyright laws of the United States and Canada and by international treaties.
Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Contact Us