|
Be
Confident in this Market Until You See a Reason to Believe
Otherwise
by Kenneth J.
Gruneisen, Registered Investment Advisor, Source Capital
Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC
Our headline last month was critical of the new rally,
saying that it lacked conviction. We urged readers not to
guess about what would happen next, but to watch the
market closely and not be too complacent about the
prospects of another awful plunge. Thankfully, we have
seen increasing conviction on the buy side and much
improvement in the past month. So, if you took your clues
from the action in the major indices, you probably started
moving some of your sidelined cash into stocks by now.
What? Are you still in doubt about the market’s
prospects for a sustained rally? After several weeks of
consolidation following their run from the October 10 th
lows, the indices started again showing encouraging action
in early November. The market had particularly strong
action on November 1st
and 4th.
Then the indices stalled for another couple of weeks, but
they resumed their bullish action on the 20th.
And when the major indices spiked higher on November 21st
it became rather clear that institutional buying was
driving the market higher. Volume totals spiked up
noticeably, making it clear that mutual fund managers were
aggressively piling into stocks.
On a technical note, the Nasdaq Composite peaked as
high as 1497.44 on Friday, November 29th
as it challenged its 200-day moving average line (now at 1,494.84).
The Nasdaq Composite is clearly setting the pace among the
major indices, and the tech-heavy index has already topped
its August highs, while the S&P 500 Index and Dow
Jones Industrial Average have yet to do so.
The indices have already chalked up impressive
percentage gains from their respective October lows, with
the Dow Industrials up almost 24%, the S&P 500
Index up nearly 22%, and Nasdaq Composite up more
than 33%. Nothing goes straight up, and some would
say that the indices are due for some weakness on profit
taking. At this point, however, investors should remain
confident about the market until they see any reason to
believe otherwise. The market seems to have built a good
deal of momentum, and it would take a few tough
distribution days to really become worrisome. Rather than
the defensive areas, lately much of the strength has been
in the technology sector. We are seeing fewer failed
breakouts and good action in areas that normally fuel a
healthy rally.
Some uncertainty has been removed while things we
mentioned last month as possible market catalysts such as
the elections, and FOMC meeting (which included a ½ point
interest rate cut) are now behind us. Encouraging economic
reports have included a dip in jobless claims and strong 4%
growth in third-quarter GDP.
Here is another encouraging sign. In the week ended
November 26th
US stock funds had a $3.5 billion inflow, the
strongest surge since mid-May according to AMG Data
Services. Did you notice how there were reports of fund
outflows in recent months, long after the indices had
begun their plunge, yet now there are inflows after the
market has already rallied a long way? This shows how
investors commonly react after seeing what the market is
doing. In the downturn, the more ground that the market
lost, the more investors wanted to pull their money out.
But in an upswing, as the market gains ground, even more
investors want to put their money in.
Market’s Leading
Groups
CANSLIM fans all know
that your odds of success are much greater when choosing
stocks among the top performing industry groups in the
market. Right now that list includes a lot of the
following:
-
Internet (Content, Security, E-Commerce)
- Computer (Software, Memory,
Manufacturing, Services),
- Telecomm (Wireless, Fiber Optics,
Equipment, Services)
- Medical (Generic Drugs,
Products/Equipment),
- Leisure (Toys, Movies, Gaming),
- Finance (Banks, Savings & Loans,
Brokers). |
More
Ideal Bases May be Formed on Orderly Consolidation
by Gary Kaltbaum
As a longer-term bear, I am constantly looking for
"chinks in the armor" for this rally that
started seven weeks ago. On a weekly basis, I have been
listing for you the good and the bad. As of today, nothing
has changed.
The split market I have told you about remains. While the
"speculative" TECH, TELCO, INTERNET, BIOTECH,
SEMIS continue to do well, a long list of sectors are
continuing to act poorly. Even with the split tape, I just
don’t see any technical reason to believe this rally is
about to end any time soon. The real question is
about how much farther this rally has to go. Every
pullback is met with another bout of buying. This is in
stark contrast to the action leading up to October’s
low. Just last week, the market was blasted on
Tuesday...only to recover on Wednesday.
From a near-term point of view, go slow. As I pen this
report, futures are smoking this morning on an Intel
upgrade and strong retail numbers from Friday. I just feel
that the TECH market is extended here on a technical
basis...and now...strategists are jumping on the
bandwagon... evidenced by an upgrade of WIRELESS stocks
this morning. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are also nearing
their respective 200-day averages, which could lead
to some stalling action. A break to the upside on these
averages would be a positive.
It is also remains important to note that the sentiment
front remains unexciting as bearish advisors are at a very
low reading of 25%, the VIX and VXN are stretched to the
downside and put/calls continue to have complacent
readings.
As far as breakouts go, not much to chew on this weekend.
Only a few names popped out of bases like WFMI, RINO, NWRE.
I will say this. If the market continues to pull back in
an orderly fashion, expect more bases to be formed. Only
time will tell... but so far...so good. Unlike my fantasy
football team, which is now a fabulous 3-9, the market
continues to put in a good effort.
Gary Kaltbaum is an
investment advisor with over $100 million under
management. He is also the Senior Markets Technician at
TradingMarkets.com. He can be heard nightly on his
nationally syndicated radio show "Investors
Edge" on over 50 radio stations and across the world
on the internet. He has been featured on the FOX News
Channel ,CNBC, Bloomberg TV and is regularly quoted by the
Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones News, Reuters, AP,
RealMoney.com, USA Today and Bloomberg.
INVESTING
FOR THE
NEW
MILLENNIUM
Green
Light! More of the Right Things are Happening
by Kenneth J.
Gruneisen, Registered Investment Advisor, Source Capital
Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC
If you are continuing to track the major indices then
you noticed the recent pattern of one or two up days on
heavier volume followed by a couple of days where the
market digests the gains on lighter trading. This is just
the kind of action you want to be seeing at the start of a
new bull market. Readers of IBD might have also noticed in
recent weeks that the major indices formed cup-with-handle
chart patterns and then broke out. This is not a guarantee
that the major indices can’t turn downward, but if that
happens it would be surprising to see a bad technical
failure and October’s lows retested. Lately the market
has a lot of momentum, more high ranked leaders are
breaking out and not failing.
If you missed the first few breakouts out of the gate
you probably shouldn’t chase them and pay a price more
than 5% above their pivot point. An "opportunity of a
lifetime" comes along every couple of weeks in the
stock market so don’t get flustered. The next time you
see a high-ranked leader breaking to new highs on above
average volume, lifting off from a base at least six weeks
in duration, you might not want to be hesitant.
"Fundamentally
sound stocks within 10-15% of their
highs are great candidates to keep on your watch
list."
Bear markets leave many investors too petrified to jump
in even when the right things start happening. The right
things have finally been happening. Hopefully this doesn’t
come to you as something surprising to hear. In this
newsletter we’ve continually been preaching caution,
defense, and the importance of capital preservation so
that our readers would have a load of sidelined cash for
just such a time. Now, failing to latch onto some ideas
from the first group of new leaders can have you missing
out on a lot of the market’s easiest big gains.
Fundamentally sound stocks within 10-15% of their highs
are great candidates to keep on your watch list. The best
stock selections are likely to come from a group that has
plenty of other stocks confirming that the idea you are
considering is in a strong sector that the market is
favoring. I always take the time to look at the new highs
list every day, and know that it is wise to consider
stocks from within a group that is among the top five
groups with the most new highs showing up.
As contrary indicators go, we can find some
encouragement in the fact that over the past couple of
weeks the percentage of bullish advisors has been tapering
off a bit, rather than continuing to climb. Also, a number
of clients I have recently talked to about purchasing a
couple of emerging leaders have voiced concern that the
market has already rallied a lot and that it might be due
for another pullback. It is actually good that a lot of
people are scared and pessimistic. If it people were
unanimously bullish there would be very little fuel left
to drive the market higher. Right?
Here’s another interesting point to look at.
Downgrades! For some odd reason it seems that analysts
these days are anxious to issue downgrades based upon
valuations. Most stocks have been shrugging off such news,
and with the market willing, they will probably continue
higher. But among some of the strongest emerging new
leaders in the latest rally I have seen a number of really
great looking stocks hit with virtually senseless
downgrades. In some cases these ridiculous fools are
saying that the stocks have reached their target so they
are reducing them from "strong buy" to
"buy", or from "buy" to
"hold", or from "over-weight" to
"market perform" in those special cases where
they really want to sound like they know what is going on.
I am not just saying this to jump on an easy target to
make fun of these days, and it is not as if any of these
calls seem to be doing much damage. Mind you, this is just
another great contrary indicator. When I see it happening
it almost makes me glad to see it, and it definitely makes
me wonder if maybe they are on the short side! For if they
were really long the stock, wouldn’t they simply raise
their target and pound the table saying you should buy it?
Who really knows what to make of these analysts’
opinions? If you say it is a "hold" you must
think it has potential to go up, so why doesn’t it make
sense to buy it? Oh, is that too risky? Then why hold it?
STOCKS
TO
WATCH IN THIS
NEW
MARKET
- Timely Stock Ideas Based Largely on CANSLIM -
Now that
market conditions have clearly been turning toward a more
cheerful season, we decided to expand the usual
"Ideas Worth a Closer Look" section to include a
longer list of high-ranked issues you should be sure to
watch. This gives you a wider list of ideas to focus on
that are among the most suitable purchase candidates under
the guidelines outlined by O’Neil in "How to Make
Money in Stocks".
Coach Inc. (NYSE – COH)
Another top ranked stock from the Retail-Apparel/Shoe
group. It had a bumpy ride this past year, but the recent
action has been undeniably bullish. From both a
fundamental and technical perspective this is an
attractive looking leader in a strong group. It might be
more desirable to look to pick up shares on a dip back
closer to its 50-day moving average line, where it is
normal to see institutional support step up in a healthy
stock. Notice the way on November 11th
it bounced off of that important short-term average.

Eon Labs
Inc (Nasdaq – ELAB)
One of the top choices in the Medical-Generic Drugs
group that is ranked 16th
among IBD’s 197 Industry Groups. It has high ranks and
has marched steadily higher since its May IPO. A close
above its November 14 highest-ever close at $24.38 would
grab our attention, especially if volume surges. Its
up/down volume ratio of 2.0 makes it very clear the stock
is trading higher volume on up days and lighter volume on
down days.

Verisity Limited (Nasdaq - VRST)
This is a high ranked leader in the Computer-Graphics
group, and a company that was first mentioned in our
"Ideas Worth a Closer Look" section back in
April of this year. At that time its breakout promptly
failed, disappointing us and then spending eight months
consolidating. In the past month it has jumped back above
its 200-day moving average and in the past week it spiked
up on heavy volume to get back within striking distance of
all-time highs.

Blue Rhino Corporation (Nasdaq – RINO)
In the last couple of years this company has come a long
way, but it is difficult to not mention it after its
latest high-volume breakout from a six-week base of
consolidation. It is a leader in the Consumer Products-Misc
category, and has been coming through again and again
with big earnings and sales increases over the year
earlier numbers. It is extended a bit above its 50-day
moving average where it found recent support. Maybe this
RINO will keep on charging.

Nutraceutical Intl Corp. (Nasdaq –NUTR)
Building a long,
flat base since it was mentioned in our "Ideas Worth
a Closer Look" section in September, this lightly
traded issue popped to new highs last week as volume rose
above its average trading levels for the past six sessions
straight. It has high ranks and confirming strength in the
Cosmetics/Personal Care group going for it. That
fact that it is small (only 11.1 million shares are
outstanding) could lead to an explosive rise in price if
institutional demand continues to grow.

Zebra Tech Corp Cl A (Nasdaq – ZBRA)
The same remarks concerning LXK might be said for ZBRA, as
some investors think a $64.22 stock is lacking in
explosive upside potential. If they moved the decimal
point over a notch and called it a $6.42 stock with 315
million shares (instead of the 31.5 million outstanding
that it really has) the same group of amateurs would
likely get excited. There are legitimate reasons that this
particular company has such high ranks and a very bullish
chart. It is attracting strong interest from institutional
investors, and these pros don’t flinch at the higher
price tag.

Ross Stores
Inc. (Nasdaq – ROST)
This is a high-ranked leader in the Retail-Apparel/Shoe
group that should be no stranger to long-time CANSLIM
fans. It was among the first ideas featured at CANSLIM.net
back as early as 1997. Consumers these days are more cost
conscious, and the discount retailers seems to be
outpacing other parts of the retail group. Its chart is
bullish and its ranks are high. If volume kicks into high
gear and the price rises through $46, 47,48 what else can
we assume but things are looking great.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (Nasdaq – GILD)
Truly a high-ranked
leader in the Medical-Biomed/Biotech group. That
group is presently ranked 6th
among IBD’s 197 Industry Groups. It has a bullish chart
but it would be nicer to see an eyebrow-raising high
volume day with a nice jump over $40. One thing that is a
bit of a bother is that its 195 million shares outstanding
make it a bit larger than what we consider the most ideal
size (30 million).

Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE – WCN)
A leader that sports high ranks and a bullish chart in the
Pollution Control-Svcs group. Unfortunately its
recent rise to new highs seems to have happened a bit
casually, where normally we’d expect to see a big bang,
and confirmation of its recent new highs in its Relative
Strength line would also be helpful. One other thing that
stands out as worrisome would be its sub par
Accumulation/Distribution rank. Those might be areas to
watch for improvement.

Lexmark International A (NYSE – LXK)
Many novice investors who think that high-priced stocks
don’t have as much potential for big gains are likely to
pass on this high ranked leader from the Computer-Peripheral
Eqp group. The truth is that is the best-ranked
overall leader in the group and clearly is a favorite of
institutional investors based on solid fundamental growth.
It appears ready to break above its May 2001 highs in the
$70 range and begin another leg up. Don’t be surprised
if it actually turns out to be cheap at the current price.

| Comments
contained in the body of this report are technical
opinions only and are not necessarily those of
Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has
been obtained from sources believed to be reliable
and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness
cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and
customers may effect transactions, including
transactions contrary to any recommendation herein,
or have positions in the securities mentioned herein
or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation
contained in this report may not be suitable for all
investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or
solicitation on our part with respect to the
purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital
Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm
Further
information is always available upon request. If you
know anyone that may have an interest in receiving
this or any of our other reports, please call our
office locally at (954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399
or email kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com
|
HOW
ARE
THEY
NOW?
Follow
up on the Last 4 Stock Ideas that were Previously Profiled
in "Ideas Worth a Closer Look"
Something can be learned from
studying past experiences both good and bad. Below you
will find follow-up commentary on ideas featured in the
two previous issues of this newsletter. These remarks help
to explain critical technical trading points or news
events that occurred which had an obvious impact on the
price action of these issues.
Anteon Intl
Corp. (NYSE:ANT)
Last month we said that at best Anteon’s troubles would
be hard to overcome. It was not at all surprising to see
it continue dropping all the way down to the $19
area (1) where it had support at prior July/Aug
lows (2). Despite news of several new multi-million
dollar contracts the stock still is in the "damaged
goods" category based on the technical breakdown and
not one to be seriously considered. This example is worth
studying only for the lessons that can be learned about
selling with a small 7-8% loss, or when a stock
breaks under its 50-day moving average on high volume (3).

The Cooper Companies,
Inc. (NYSE:COO)
This is a great example of how a healthy stock normally
finds support at its 50-day moving average line (1).
And do not be confused by today’s substantially lower
share price, since it was adjusted on 11/25 upon a 2-for-1
split. Stocks in the Medical-Products group are still
providing some market leadership, despite the fallout
among HMO stocks adjacent to the group. Watch for a
reaction to its earnings announcement due after the close
on 12/12. It would not be surprising if the action leading
up to that date might give investors a hint as to what
might be expected.

Exactech Inc. (NASDAQ:EXAC)
After getting off to a great start in the first few
trading days of November (1) the stock has been
building a very tight flat base. New management was added
on 11/8 when the firm announced three key appointments in
a move to further escalate the company’s strong sales
and marketing activities. While it is not a heavily traded
issue to begin with, make note of the way its daily
trading volume has dried up (2) while the stock has
traded sideways. When a stock remains perched up near
all-time highs and there are simply not a lot of willing
sellers, this it is usually a very good sign.

PEC Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ:PECS)
After several weeks of ordinary consolidation it spiked
higher on heavier volume on 11/25 with no news at all on
the newswires concerning the company (1). Of
course, on that day President Bush signed legislation
creating the Department of Homeland Security, which helps
to account for the action since the company mostly engages
in business with government agencies. Unfortunately, that
brings to mind how Anteon’s troubles started when it
said the government agencies it deals with were slow in
paying. Still, a large amount of existing short interest
in PECS reveals what could easily become a source of much
additional buying.

 Of
Mice And Elephants
Article by Soraya Nasrallah, Registered
Representative, Source Capital Group, Inc. Members NASD/SIPC
Some of you may be saying right now, "What in the
world is she going to write about this month?!".
Well, if you are a fan of CANSLIM, you know exactly
what I am going to write about! In this article, the mice
are the small investors and the elephants are the large
institutions.
It has been more than seven weeks that the market has
been in an up trend. Even though the chances of are pull
back are unavoidable, it is clear to see that the path to
recuperation is being paved for us and we must be prepared
to follow it.
Many investors are still nursing stocks that have
faltered and practically died, like Lennie in Steinbeck’s
"Of Mice and Men", who continued to carry and
stroke a dead rabbit for quite some time. It is important
to concentrate your investment dollars in your winning
stocks and not continue to hold or keep buying more of the
losers. CANSLIM followers know that by following a 7-8%
selling discipline, you cut your losses before they
destroy you.
"One
of the Keys to Taking Advantage of a New Bull
Market is to Watch What the Elephants Are Doing!"
Most of the wealth is usually created during the
beginning of a new bull market. The sad part is that most
of us are not sure as to when the bear is headed for
hibernation and the bull is sharpening its horns. That has
been the big question for the past months if not years. As
we all know by now, the economists and analysts don’t
always know the answers. You are better off taking your
clues from the charts of the major indexes. If you are
glued to CNBC in search of the answer, you won’t be able
to make rational decisions for your portfolio.
One of the keys to taking advantage of a new bull
market is to watch what the Elephants are doing!
You know, the banks, investment companies and pension
funds. The Institutional Investors! Large sums of
money are being held on the sidelines waiting eagerly for
the next gravy train! That new Bull Market is closer as we
speak, and once the Institutions start pouring in their
money, you must be prepared to jump right in! Making sure
that you don’t buy when a stock has gotten extended
(more than 10% from its breakout) is one of the keys to
our success!
Let me offer you a quick sample of how important it is
for you to follow these Institutions. Do you remember back
in March of 2000 when stocks started to tumble? While I am
sure you don’t really want to discuss it, if you take
time to look at the charts of the companies that got
clobbered you can identify a distinctive pattern that they
all have. This very important chart action is clearly
revealed in the declines in price accompanied by a larger
than average volume. Hold on and let me rephrase that -
"Accompanied by HUGE volume!" If that did
not scare you, I don’t know what can. In the movie
"Amityville Horror" the new owners enter the
house and they hear a ghostly voice that says, "GET
OUT!" Well, that’s what investors should have done
because that is what the charts were saying, and that is
exactly what the elephants were doing. Which do you think
could cause such big ripples, the elephants or the mice?
But Wait! The same thing happens when the market
turns around and stock prices start escalating! Yes, when
you see stocks hitting new price highs accompanied by huge
volume it is a pretty clear sign that it is time to get
in. Unlike the ghostly voice that scares you away, this
time it is more like when you are going to a holiday
party, and when you knock on your neighbor’s door you
hear a cheerful and pleasant, "COME IN!"
With a new Bull Market on the horizon you must be
prepared. In the same way that the actions of the
elephants, the institutional investors’ (the
"I" in CANSLIM) moves were noticeable at the
outset of the collapse, if you recognize their moves now
it will enable you to foresee the possible heights of
stocks and get on board.
Ever Considered Using a
Buy Stop Order?
You should be able to spot more ideal purchase candidates
if you continuously monitor the high-ranked leaders that
are trading up on above average volume. One strategy that
you might use if you don’t have the ability to watch the
market all day long involves the use of "buy
stop" orders. This kind of order is the opposite of a
"sell stop" order, which investors commonly call
a "stop loss" since it becomes an order to sell
only if the stock drops to a certain point, often
preventing more substantial losses. With a "buy
stop" order you pick a point (such as the pivot
point) at which you would like to have your buy order
triggered. When the stock trades up to your designated
price your order then becomes a market order to buy.
Why not go ahead and buy the stock earlier and a little
cheaper if you like it? Because you really only want to
get into it once you’ve seen real proof that the buying
demand there is sufficient enough to drive the price to
new highs. We are not trying to be psychic like television’s
infamous Miss Cleo. No! We are not guessing what might
happen, but simply reacting to what is actually happening.
This technique might make sense in those cases where you
don’t have time to react.
| Comments
contained in the body of this report are technical
opinions only and are not necessarily those of
Source Capital Group, Inc. The material herein has
been obtained from sources believed to be reliable
and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness
cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and
customers may effect transactions, including
transactions contrary to any recommendation herein,
or have positions in the securities mentioned herein
or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation
contained in this report may not be suitable for all
investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or
solicitation on our part with respect to the
purchase or sale of any securities. Source Capital
Group, Inc. is a NASD/SIPC member firm.
Further
information is always available upon request. If you
know anyone that may have an interest in receiving
this or any of our other reports, please call our
office locally at (954) 785-1990 or (888) 237-8399
or email kgruneisen@sourcegrp.com
|
|